Gold on a decline along with the DX

19 jul 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold is showcasing total Neutrality (much needed decreasing critically Oversold levels priced on current Selling run) as Buying pressure on Gold is visible due DX on decline ahead of ECB meeting and from Technical standpoint, personally my belief is that it is temporary effect. In addition, Price-action may price another attempt and extend the recovery candles towards #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Resistance cluster, if Gold prices the rebound there, Double Top pattern will be formed (within emerging Head and Shoulders) and Price-action most likely will go after #1,717.80 first then #1,700.80 psychological barrier in extension once again. It is Highly dangerous to engage any kind of order at the moment, as my estimations are showing Buying bias is still strongly limited aswell with higher Bond Yields and # 2Y (Short-term) and #10Y (Medium and Long-term) Yields inversion is the messenger of crippling recession all market classes are suffering, so Investors may park their capital into U.S. Dollar (representing safe-heaven currently in High demand) and since DX is directly correlated with Gold, current environment is not Gold friendly where assets such as precious metals will lose as long as U.S. Dollar remains strong and near local peak. Regardless, all this above is very speculative and all depends on how DX will Trade in the coming sessions. If Gold breaks #1,730.80 - #1,732.80 Resistance cluster, Price-action will most likely pursue a contact with #1,756.80 pressure point, however rejection and potential rebound near or below Resistance cluster is keeping Bearish Short-term bias alive. No new calls at the moment.


Technical analysis: As expected, the failure to break #1,698.80 - #1,700.80 and close one full candle below throughout last week, brought a Higher Low's Lower zone recovery attempt. However, recovery was strongly limited and Gold was rebounding strongly way below the Resistance cluster, indicating that this is the strongest Resistance level regarding the Short-term. With Daily chart still Bearish though marginally, I still favor Selling on both Short and Medium-term long-term, and will continue to do so as long as DX is Trading near local High's and extending the miraculous recovery. My Medium-term Target is still #1,678.80 extension. Keep in mind that current Gold's weakness is directly attributed to the strong soaring on DX, which has hit the Top of its own Ascending Channel, so I am expecting a retrace (thus rally on Gold as they are negatively correlated).


My position: As Gold is losing with every Hourly candle along with DX on eminent decline, I am still not confident with engaging new order and current phenomenon is sign of Intra-day Volatility Price-action is under. As long as it lasts, I will remain on sidelines, awaiting new Selling opportunity. DX is still showing Bullish values and can reverse upwards anytime, so look for pointers there. I will not Sell Gold unless I have confirmation from DX and I am in no rush to engage new order, based on my previous Trading results.