Gold Trading on my predicted values / eyes on #1,600.80 mark

14 oct 2022

As discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: My analysis is based on Spot prices as I can note with certainty that current Gold moves that Traders are witnessing are sign how unstable all market classes has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Hourly 4 timeframe is still there (however chances are slim almost equal to zero), Swing Traders may be interested in Selling from near #1,678.80 Hourly 4 chart configuration. A decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Ultimate Top could be on the cards (entry / risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily fluctuation which should slide Gold Lower from noted Supply-Demand zone, and if U.S. session opens with negative fashion, it has #1,652.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low) with candle sequence ready to push the Price-action even Lower (my estimations show even #1,600.80 mark test). I have closed my Short-term order (#1,670.80 entry point) since it didn't delivered any significant results, however I have re-engaged the same order few moments ago (again #1,670.80 as an entry point), with my both Short and Medium-term Selling orders Targeting #1,652.80 mark, then #1,633.80 Support in extension."


I have closed my Selling order (#1,670.80 - #1,652.80) on a fine #18 point Profit run, extending my results range to #39 Profits row and #8 Stop-loss hits regarding April - October cycle. I have closed portion of my Medium-term Selling orders aswell (engaged near #1,720's) which brought aswell spectacular results (on the other side, kept another portion of orders since my estimations are pointing to #1,600.80 mark extension). I will use this chance to congratulate both Short-term and Swing Traders who followed my calls and had patience to hold the orders, well done!


Technical analysis: Another Low is priced in on the emerging Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel which was testing and breaking the #1,652.80 psychological mark quickly entered the critically Oversold territory as lagging upswing sequence is showing signs of exhaustion. It is more than obvious that Gold’s Inflated Price-action can be corrected on #1 strong Engulfing candle and with Fed’s statement leaving the rate unchanged (where I expect additional hawkish stance) should pull us down on Lower levels and confirm the Bearish reversal. On the Russia - Ukraine political uncertainty, both correlating markets are moving on a much slower pace, where it is Natural to expect a small pullback if the political matters aren’t resolved, but as long as DX is not pressured by disappointing numbers I expect a smooth downfall / diagonal Trading towards #1,633.80 - #1,642.80 Support zone. Especially since Daily chart is about to turn Bearish again, however Golden Cross formation is slowly but steadily emerging on Hourly 4 chart (former Triangle broken to the downside with CPI not missing the estimate). As I warned lately that these are not normal market conditions and that I shouldn’t Trade on directional approach as the CPI would bring turbulence. I advise to seize all Trading activity and await until I get a good understanding of how the Fed intends to proceed with further hiking and how Investors will digest the meaning of the statement after the announcement. As market move closer to the rate (with already Bearish Daily chart) the Price-action may start sloping Lower while spiking if the rate remains unchanged and there hints for no further hikes in the near future. I expect the rate to remain rising (at least for #Q3 and #4) as I will Trade the breakout. It is important to note that greater that expected CPI numbers will force Fed to increase Interest Rate (next announcement on November #2) and will most likely attract Investors to relocate their capital to Bond Yields and DX. This confirms my estimations that multi-Month Bearish cycle might be ahead on Gold.


My position: As explained widely above, I am now without any Short-term orders and will await for DX to kick-start a Bullish comeback while I will await #1,660.80 Support break to engage my Selling order towards #1,642.80 Support. Since my Stop-loss would be more than #15 points away from my entry point and it is Friday's session, I will comfortably remain on sidelines (regarding Intra-day basis), satisfied with my Trading results. Regardless, Buying potential is very limited as I am expecting #1,633.80 - #1,642.80 Support belt to be tested within #3 sessions. #1,600.80 mark remains my Medium-term Target.