EUR/USD tech outlook for Wednesday...
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is attempting to regain a foothold from the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Buoyed on the back of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink), EUR/USD experienced an additional surge in demand Tuesday, overriding Monday’s bearish engulfing pattern.
Northbound, we have the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1057 offering a layer of resistance. Supply at 1.1239/1.1179 also remains a prominent fixture on this timeframe, sited just north of a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1171 and intersecting with trendline resistance (1.0879).
In addition to this, traders may find interest in noting supply coming in from 1.1323/1.1268, having seen a potential AB=CD correction point terminate at 1.1276 (orange).
H4 timeframe:
Despite moderately navigating lower out of supply at 1.1044/1.0966 on Monday, accompanied by a nearby 50% retracement at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973, the euro benefitted on the back of a waning dollar Tuesday amid easing funding pressures.
In addition to the above, H4 price is currently compressing within two converging trendlines (an ascending wedge) which if a break lower comes to pass, could signal a downside move the size of the pattern’s base (approximately 160 points from 1.0926/1.0768).
H1 timeframe:
The technical landscape based on the H1 timeframe had the candles rebound from channel support from 1.0768 yesterday, combined with a 100-period SMA. Despite putting up a fight off 1.0950, buyers strengthened their grip and overpowered the level amid US hours to reach supply coming in from 1.1033/1.0982 which contains the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
As a reminder, we have monthly price rebounding from demand at 1.0488/1.0912, together with daily price printing a solid recovery from 1.0745/1.0830, potentially setting the stage for further upside to the 200-day SMA.
H4 price is testing supply at 1.1044/1.0966, formed alongside an approach in the shape of an ascending wedge. Interestingly, H1 price also tests supply, nearing the 1.10 handle and encased within the said H4 zone.
Overall, the technical picture suggests we may witness a pullback materialise from 1.10, though whether the move will harvest sufficient oomph to dominate 1.0950 is difficult to judge having seen the higher timeframes eyeing higher levels. A decisive H4 push beneath the H4 ascending wedge, however, would help add confidence to the downside.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is attempting to regain a foothold from the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Buoyed on the back of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink), EUR/USD experienced an additional surge in demand Tuesday, overriding Monday’s bearish engulfing pattern.
Northbound, we have the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1057 offering a layer of resistance. Supply at 1.1239/1.1179 also remains a prominent fixture on this timeframe, sited just north of a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1171 and intersecting with trendline resistance (1.0879).
In addition to this, traders may find interest in noting supply coming in from 1.1323/1.1268, having seen a potential AB=CD correction point terminate at 1.1276 (orange).
H4 timeframe:
Despite moderately navigating lower out of supply at 1.1044/1.0966 on Monday, accompanied by a nearby 50% retracement at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973, the euro benefitted on the back of a waning dollar Tuesday amid easing funding pressures.
In addition to the above, H4 price is currently compressing within two converging trendlines (an ascending wedge) which if a break lower comes to pass, could signal a downside move the size of the pattern’s base (approximately 160 points from 1.0926/1.0768).
H1 timeframe:
The technical landscape based on the H1 timeframe had the candles rebound from channel support from 1.0768 yesterday, combined with a 100-period SMA. Despite putting up a fight off 1.0950, buyers strengthened their grip and overpowered the level amid US hours to reach supply coming in from 1.1033/1.0982 which contains the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
As a reminder, we have monthly price rebounding from demand at 1.0488/1.0912, together with daily price printing a solid recovery from 1.0745/1.0830, potentially setting the stage for further upside to the 200-day SMA.
H4 price is testing supply at 1.1044/1.0966, formed alongside an approach in the shape of an ascending wedge. Interestingly, H1 price also tests supply, nearing the 1.10 handle and encased within the said H4 zone.
Overall, the technical picture suggests we may witness a pullback materialise from 1.10, though whether the move will harvest sufficient oomph to dominate 1.0950 is difficult to judge having seen the higher timeframes eyeing higher levels. A decisive H4 push beneath the H4 ascending wedge, however, would help add confidence to the downside.
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