General Market Outlook - July 20th, 2014

20 jul 2014

Reminder: Next week will be the last analysis for this summer, then I'll be back on the last Sat/Sunday of August to post again.

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Interesting Pairs:

AUD/USD - Bearish

- Price did move down to test the 0.9325 level as expected but I didn't bother to take the trade (would've been +50 pips if I did)
- Moving forwards, two things can happen:
1. Continue ranging between 0.9325 and 0.9435
2. Descending triangle breakout and price moves towards 0.9200 (I prefer this one)

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EUR/USD - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 1.3500)

- Solid down move on EUR/USD this week, moved down as expected (+125 pips)
- Given the pinbar/doji close of Friday, price may bounce from here targeting the 1.37 handle again. However, this is contingent on the 1.347X support level holding.

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GBP/USD - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 1.704X)

- Price finally hit my 1.718X level and my shorts filled, which I rode down to the short term downward trend line at 1.704X (+125 pips)
- Moving forwards, price may continue moving up to test the 1.718X level again. However, this is contingent on the downward trend line holding.
- If the trend line doesn't hold, then downside targets are 1.68 and 1.69.

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USD/JPY - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 101.1X)

- My longs got stopped out for break even when price went down on Thursday. However, I opened a few more longs at 101.1X on Friday since I'm still leaning towards bulls on this pair.
- Moving forwards, I would like to see price move up to the 102.00 (new aqua parallel line) and 102.2X levels

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Confusing Pairs:

USD/CAD - No Comment

XAG/USD - No Comment

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Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.