Multi-Confluence Downside Move on EURJPY
EURJPY is presently up-trending on the daily and hourly charts. This apparent uptrend on the lower timeframes is actually a retracement on the higher timeframe weekly chart. EURJPY has been on a strong and solid weekly downtrend since June 2015.
There are several points of confluence indicating that EURJPY is about to turn to the downside and resume the long-term downtrend:
- The retracement has pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci Level. This alone would not make me short this pair, as the previous retracements all pulled back to 61.8% before the downside move resumed on the weekly down-trend. However there are several other points of confluence that would support the 50% Fibonacci resistance level:
- The retracement has pulled back to a well-established trend-line which has been tested and respected more than 12 times in the last 2.5 years as a level of resistance and then support. Price now has tested and failed to break this trendline from the downside, indicating that it has once again become a resistance trendline for the continuing downward move.
- The retracement has pulled back to a long-established area of support and resistance, a level which occurs at the 50% fib level of all 30 year historical price-action. This level has been respected, repeatedly, as far back as 1994 when EURJPY price data was a basket of European Currencies against the Yen.
- The retracement has touched, and failed to close above the 4-Hour 200 period moving average.
- EURGBP EURAUD EURUSD EURNZD EURCHF EURCAD all corrected downward after the ECB fundamental on 10th March. EURJPY did not currect with the other Euro pairs but went sideways - the other EURO pairs would indicate that a downward correction for EURJPY is due - a move that could trigger and end to the weekly retracement and resumption of the long term down trend.
- No downside support aside from 4H demand zones at 124.472 and 123.493
Correlations:
- USDJPY is stuck in a trading range on the daily charts. The Pair is presently at the top of the range forming an upside-down penant so could support downward move.
- EURUSD was correcting to the downside following the ECB Fundamental on 10th March. The pair rallied from the downside correction at the end of the week as traders closed their Friday positions, but the downside correction could resume outside of the unpredictable Friday Trading session.
- GBPJPY is at an identical setup to EURJPY, retracing on the weekly and poised for a trend continuation to the downside.
There are several points of confluence indicating that EURJPY is about to turn to the downside and resume the long-term downtrend:
- The retracement has pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci Level. This alone would not make me short this pair, as the previous retracements all pulled back to 61.8% before the downside move resumed on the weekly down-trend. However there are several other points of confluence that would support the 50% Fibonacci resistance level:
- The retracement has pulled back to a well-established trend-line which has been tested and respected more than 12 times in the last 2.5 years as a level of resistance and then support. Price now has tested and failed to break this trendline from the downside, indicating that it has once again become a resistance trendline for the continuing downward move.
- The retracement has pulled back to a long-established area of support and resistance, a level which occurs at the 50% fib level of all 30 year historical price-action. This level has been respected, repeatedly, as far back as 1994 when EURJPY price data was a basket of European Currencies against the Yen.
- The retracement has touched, and failed to close above the 4-Hour 200 period moving average.
- EURGBP EURAUD EURUSD EURNZD EURCHF EURCAD all corrected downward after the ECB fundamental on 10th March. EURJPY did not currect with the other Euro pairs but went sideways - the other EURO pairs would indicate that a downward correction for EURJPY is due - a move that could trigger and end to the weekly retracement and resumption of the long term down trend.
- No downside support aside from 4H demand zones at 124.472 and 123.493
Correlations:
- USDJPY is stuck in a trading range on the daily charts. The Pair is presently at the top of the range forming an upside-down penant so could support downward move.
- EURUSD was correcting to the downside following the ECB Fundamental on 10th March. The pair rallied from the downside correction at the end of the week as traders closed their Friday positions, but the downside correction could resume outside of the unpredictable Friday Trading session.
- GBPJPY is at an identical setup to EURJPY, retracing on the weekly and poised for a trend continuation to the downside.
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