In Q1 2021, I often mentioned that one of the conditions I ALWAYS look for is a bullish market confirmation, that is the ETH/BTC pair, ETH should go up first against Satoshi BTC.
In recent days, after my last analysis above BTC before X-Mas 2021, ETH did the contrary trend. Indeed, we are now experiencing a very bad mood or fear in the market.
There are two potential targets in my chart, as an EW novice, I tried to count some possible waves.
Market structure:
Monthly, weekly and daily TF are all bearish. Now it is so dangerous for buyers or Hodler, my probability for a reversal trend is only 20%, IF YES Bulls MUST show up before the end of Jan 2022. Perhaps there is still a lot of BIG WHALES at last support.
However, I doubt that there is still a possibility BIG Whales will dump the market even at a lower price, then they could continue to accumulate all ATH coins and Satoshi at the lower levels.
ETH: last ( but not that strong support) 3000-3100
My target for the first complete wave 3 of 5 at 2600-2800.
Second target wave 5 of 5: retest the Monthly low of 2021.
Reversal trend: MUST show it hands with at least 2 weekly closings green candle and we MUST see ETH soon well above 4000 to confirm the bottom now.
Overall, I do not expect to see a bearish or long-run 2-3 years bearish market like in 2018-2020. However, "keep it simple and stupid" whenever my BTC is traded below my EMA 21 weekly, it will confirm a bearish market to me, the longer BTC stays below that level, the longer bearish market would last. I would not fully agree with the comparison between the Macro outlook in 2017-2018 with 2021-2022. Be prepared and stay on the safe side!
Cheers, and thank you.