Another March 2020 epic crash coming in H1 2024

24 oct 2023

Something really horrible is coming to the markets in Q1 or Q2 2024. Here are the short-term bullish Bat harmonic projection (ig.com/en/trading-strategies/top-7-harmonic-patterns-every-trader-should-know-210608 to $3200 and long-term bearish Shark harmonic (ig.com/en/trading-strategies/top-7-harmonic-patterns-every-trader-should-know-210608 to $200 - 600 I had for ETH. I do not know if that bullish will complete, as it was cherry-picked from a ridge not the top. But the stock markets might rally to ATHs in Q4 or Q1 before the looming catastrophe.

24 oct 2023

Nota

A different perspective on ETHBTC would be consistent to ETH perhaps rallying a bit more here to maybe $ 2100 or if somehow miraculously ETHBTC bounces to 0.088, then $ 3200 while BTC hits 36k. But after that decline of ETH below $ 500 and BTC below $ 15k in H1 2024. ETHBTC should rally back towards an ATH double-top (or thereabouts) into 2025. Given my expectation is BTC will top ~70k in 2025, ETH perhaps will top $ 5 - 10k. So buying altcoins in the looming crash will end up very lucrative.

24 oct 2023

Nota

ETH is in the SOS phase D of the Wycoff Accumulation schematic so after reaccumulating in the mid-to-low $ 1700s then should top out ~2k, before resuming an egregious decline.

24 oct 2023

Nota

I was originally interpreting XRPUSD near-term bullish because I thought a bullish breakout from a massive wedge. However, I added the yellow trendline now which is much more bearish. XRP could revisit $ 0.30, 0.22 or even 0.15 before rallying to less than $ 2 in 2025 as the final top before it dies!



XRPBTC is forming a symmetric triangle. This can be either a bearish continuation or a bullish reversal pattern. Unfortunately this is likely to be bearish. Most likely rallies only to place XRPUSD at ~$ 1.75 when BTC hits ~$ 70k. Might rally to 0.00004 thus ~$ 2.80 but not likely. After that it appears it could continue bearish with the projection to 0.000002 basically means XRP dies worth less than 5 cents after 2025.

24 oct 2023

Nota

[ Album ]
An alternative interpretation is that XRP may decline to $ 0.30, 0.22 or 0.15 but is in an overall bullish flag headed to $100 on a violent move. In this case XRPBTC coming down first could form a bullish W pattern. I rather like this scenario, because I do think XRP will win their case against the SEC and ETFs will send massive amounts of FOMO into crypto later in 2024 and into 2025. Buying XRP on a pullback in H2 2024 could be the speculation of a lifetime!

24 oct 2023

Nota

XRP could drop crash down to 10 cents in 2024 in this posited bullish flag, with XRPBTC dropping below 0.000008 and BTC below 14k. Remember that BlackRock wants to buy everything cheap before they launch the ETFs.

24 oct 2023

Nota

LTC has a crazy Butterfly harmonic pattern projecting to (negative) -$ 80. So we can probably discard that as nonsensical.



LTC looks to be in an A-B-C correction like BTC, ETH and XRP. Thus LTC should revisit the 2019 and 2020 lows of ~$ 23. LTCBTC concurs as likely to retest bottom of channel before rallying into 2025 back to LTCUSD $ 350 for the final double-top.





Do not forget I have S&P projected to double-top by December. But remember BTC is leading S&P. When S&P rallied from May 1 to July 24, BTC had already rallied and was declining until July 12 when it rallied to make a slightly higher high, before S&P rallied to top. This was the same in 2019 as well before the March 2020 C19 Bill Ackman crash.

7 nov 2023

Nota

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/6/23 6:57 PM]
Sell Bitcoin. We will be able to repurchase below 15k before the halving.

QAnon, [11/7/23 1:29 AM]
I was just thinking ftx shook out the weak hands and that was the bottom

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 1:32 AM]
And we have +133% off that bottom. The problem now is not leverage in Bitcoin, but the macro economic situation. Late 2019 and early 2020 repeating.

QAnon, [11/7/23 1:34 AM]
Is that a Fibonacci rise

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 1:37 AM]
I believe so. Could still chop between BER:33K and 40k in Q4 before the dump. Appears to be an A-B-C (aka W-X-Y) correction from the 2021 top. Wave B/X completing now. Top always comes with the maximum ETF fud.

QAnon, [11/7/23 2:20 AM]
How do you know FTX wasn’t the c

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 2:22 AM]
Nobody can know with 100% certainty, but there was never the capitulation what we see at bottoms where everyone hates crypto and calling for it to drop $900 as they were at 3k in 2018.

Also we definitely have some contagion looming in H1 2024. Armstrong's computer is picking up the capital flows in advance as it done in advance of every major event.

There is too much hope too early in the cycle before the halving. BTC should have crashed to ~12K, but it was lifted by the Fed pause, banking crisis and now again Fed pause + ETF rumors.

Full capitulation was interrupted and thus still looming before the halving.

I have many data points. I may fail to hit on all of them in my response. You would need to read my history of posts to get the full flavor. But for example, volume has been declining on this entire rise. There will be no easy money from the Fed until there is a contagion event. Bitcoin is fueled by the Fed’s self-immolation because it will be the replacement for the dollar as the world's reserve.

Steve Courtney’s 5:3 ratio theory which has pinpointed the top of every bull market in Bitcoin's history, says that the top will be ~413% rise from the bottom. Thus if 15.4k was the bottom, then the top would be ~79k. If this rally is going to hit ~40k (or 58k?) so early before the halving, then there will be nothing left for the actual bull market after the halving. Thus clearly we need a lower-low first.

So if we get a decline to $12 - 14k as a I expect (lower-low as Bitcoin is slowing down every cycle until the ANYONECANSPEND legacy protocol restoration, thus will be worse than 2020), so thus the top in ~2025 will be only ~62 - 71k, i.e. a triple-top marking the end of Bitcoin before it is attacked and the non-legacy protocol tokens go to ~$0 in the coming global conflagration period 2026 - 2028. After that the legacy protocol tokens will rise as the new Phoenix reserve currency to ~1M after 2032 as the world is reset w/o the USA as the superpower after it is defeated in WWIII underway

8 nov 2023

Nota

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:05 PM]
yeah i think there's still pervading doubt of bitcoin doing anything crazy bullwise so i think the downtrend is already over

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:06 PM]
if some sort of economic downturn happens again kind of like 2020, btc might just go up like it did then again

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:07 PM]
i wouldn't bet against btc now, at least

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:17 PM]
Careful w\your confirmation bias.

youtube.com/watch?v=CdRpzW68yCw
(bear market is over!)

youtu.be/6cgWtKj_ob0?t=55
(altcoins mooning again)

youtu.be/Bz7ATjco1x8
(Moonboys are baaackk)

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:18 PM]
i just wouldn't bet against btc ie go short

it's like trying to short the stock market except with more rapid movements

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:19 PM]
I remain in my hodl position. I only hedged ~2 BTC.

I feel comfortable because will not moon from here anytime soon.

I sold 1.33 BTC and bought June 2024 puts.

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:21 PM]
who knows

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:21 PM]
I already explained to you why it CAN NOT moon from here. Impossible. Somebody knows. I know.

Steve Courtney’s 5:3 ratio has been correct 3 or 4 times already.

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:24 PM]
didn't you just say he is "hyper bullish" for crypto

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:24 PM]
No. He actually recently published a video stating the ETF is all FUD.

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:25 PM]
eh the ETFs are an eventuality

QAnon [11/7/23 5:12 PM]
i really think the ftx crash was as big a capitulation event as we are gonna get

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:23 PM]
Thanks. Now I am very sure the bottom is not in yet.

You are representative of the market.

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:24 PM]
sure. i was pretty confident of my bottom call then and i'm more sure now

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:27 PM]
Did you sell the double top? Did you buy 3.1k in 2018 or 3.9k in 2020?

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:31 PM]
you say double top... but i guess I see higher highs--and no but i would've if I had cash

all i know is given its history it's not worth betting against btc unless you're taking gains

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:34 PM]
Bearish divergence M top which projected to the wave A/W interim bottom. Full projection is ~$9 - 13k perhaps coming after this bull trap.

Isn't cash what you get when you sell? Why do you need cash to sell BTC?

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:34 PM]
i would need cash to buy more btc

i think that would be lovely if we get lower prices

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:36 PM]
yeah that is an acceptable strategy if you do not mind waiting and do not want to feel bad if you could have doubled or tripled you hodlings. Even breathing has risk. I put considerable effort into researching the data points and probabilities. There is also massive bearish divergences right now as well on this three drives to a high pattern.

Of course nobody can predict the future with 100% probability. Thus I did not sell even 15% of my hodl position. I just do not want to feel bad if it drops like a stone and I have no dry powder.

I should also mention, I needed the cash reserves for my liquidity over next 4 to 6 months. I have many unknowns and expenses ahead, and no income. So for me selling some was a no brainer.

QAnon, [11/7/23 5:43 PM]
I also hate thinking, "Oh man, I can't fully buy back those 2BTC I sold to hedge"

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/7/23 5:44 PM]
I do not think like that, because I still assume I will create a crypto project that will generate 1000 BTC for me. I view my current BTC as my checking account.

8 nov 2023

Nota

Stock market might pullback, but probably going much higher in Q4 before any crash. Bitcoin could pullback, perhaps even below 33k, before it makes another assault on 37k. I sold and waiting to reenter if I see bullish short-term divergence on any pullback. I will sell again if I do when it has bearish divergence at target.

youtube.com/watch?v=lTkVpDVcyyQ
(Stock Market CRASH Fake Out: The Signals That Predicted the October Bottom Now Predict A Pullback)

9 nov 2023

Nota

1. How high does this go? Although one can imagine scenarios for ~50k, per Steve Courtney’s 5:3 ratio for bull market tops such that if 15.4k was the bottom then ~79k will be the top thus 50k before the halving is unlikely. So rather that looks like a bullish W pattern projecting to 37 - 39k.



2. Preceding or just after every major halving has been a 42 to 71% correction. Thus a severe correction is probably looming.

youtu.be/ouVayqVAebY?t=14
(Bitcoin [BTC]: This Next Move Will FOOL MOST In Crypto. Traders Beware! | Michael Pizzino)

10:09 It will break a monthly swing bottom.

9 nov 2023

Nota

youtube.com/watch?v=ouVayqVAebY&lc=UgxOaf-VK6saRWg_0Zd4AaABAg.9wsYmKplp9p9wsp1XsqaUg

> > {my comment} Preceding or just after every major halving has been a 42 to 71% correction.
>
> “yerp. just very limited data points.”

@MichaelPizzino noted though that ~25% corrections before halving currently versus ~35% 2015/16, which only had a 42% correction after the halving. But for me the 2019/20 fractal is repeating. I think still in an A-B-C (aka W-X-Y) bear market, with wave C/X looming in H1 2024 that will bring Bitcoin back down to a lower low. One of the reasons I think this current wave B can not hit 50k is Steve Courtney’s 5:3 ratio theory has predicted the top of every bull market, which if 15.4k was the bottom then 79k is the top in 2025. Thus this current rally can not go so high so soon. Beware. Your brother seems to be not allowing for another corona dump but does he not understand that Hamas was a false-flag. They can not allow Trump to win in 2024 else he would dismantle the Deep State and all their plans for WWIII. Something is going to happen again to stop Trump. I see right now the last surge up in a Wycoff distribution during 2023. We need a crisis reason for the Fed to reflate.

9 nov 2023

Nota

> > “So in other words it could go up or it could go down? Genius”
>
> “Retail buyer right there for ya” ← upvoted

🤪Probability is as you know a percentile estimate of likelihood. It does not provide success if only a small number of instances. But over enough trials, the statistics of probability hold.

Whether I am estimating the probabilities correctly is subject to debate and measurement.

Bitcoin should not be mooning this early before the halving. That alone (without even considering any of my other comments) is a warning sign.

9 nov 2023

Nota

Looks like there could be a pullback before pushing up higher, both for Bitcoin and stock markets.

youtu.be/SKs686bW14E
(MELT UP COMING- Fake Stock Market CRASH First: Professionals & The Herd Are So Bearish It's Bullish)

youtu.be/TBGfapcaXbg
(Bitcoin Will Likely Begin Its First Test to 32K on Thursday- BTC Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Update)

Bitcoin is approaching the targets both in time and price of the statistical move.

youtu.be/R15bMOJPn1Y
(Bitcoin Next Objective Upside Target. {price statistics})

9 nov 2023

Nota

QAnon, [11/9/23 5:04 AM]
idk, from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator I think I’m not going to try to fight the trend

You think there’s a bigger bear market thatwe’re still in, I think, but even if there is I’m not going to fight the even higher scale up trend

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, [11/9/23 5:30 AM]
I already acknowledged that is a reasonable strategy if you have the patience to wait through any dip in 2024.

=======

It’s like Covid is almost already back in Europe.

youtu.be/sdPVJEw2jPY?t=505 ← click for chart
(BREAKING: A Global Recession Is Starting)

World slipping into spiraling deflation w/o another Covid-like pretext to constrain supply chains. Especially now with House Republicans to constrain fiscal spending.

youtu.be/t0M6Nkd94Ks
(Lacy Hunt Says US Heading for 'Hard Landing')

> With regard to the shrinking money-supply, Lacy continues to miss the elephant in the room i.e., the mountain of growth since 2008 and since the Basel 3 accord. That mountain still resides in financial assets and real estate, and while I agree that it is declining, it only requires a larger proportion of what remains to circulate in the goods market for consumer prices to explode higher.
>
> This is already happening, and most reasonable economists expect more and more money to flee financial assets and real estate as the coming recession takes hold. In its place, more and more money will flow into consumer markets via loans & credit extensions, along with extra govt deficit spending.
>
> In short, the shrinking overall money-supply can coexist with an increasing money-supply in the goods market, and thus rising consumer price inflation. It seems to me that Lacy has never really considered this point, and that probably explains why he has been so wrong with his previous inflation forecasts.
>
> For the reasons given, I expect accelerating inflation in the coming months and years, not decelerating inflation, and certainly not deflation (which is something Lacy had previously predicted, although he seems to have recently shied away from).

Yours is a very relevant point that the wealth effect drives consumer confidence and financial markets are now a much more outsized portion of the economy than back in the old days when Lacey Hunt cut his teeth as a young economist. And the powers that be understand they can goose this wealth effect by creating a crisis to force the Fed to drop rates. Also you are correct to imply that Boomers are downsizing, liquidating assets as they age to fund their lifestyles. Also they use any crisis drop in interest rates to move, refinance, take out home equity credit, etc.. Boomers are astute this way.

Also Lacy Hunt is overlooking is that the powers that be are not going to allow the world to slip into a depression without creating a pretext to blame it on. Essentially he just laid out all the reasons that another pLandemic event is likely in H1 2024. Also an election year again and no way they can allow Trump to be elected. So what Hunt is not factoring in is the WWIII that the powers that be are launching in 2024. That can constrain supply chains and create the emergency powers situation again that they had under C19.

> “We are heading towards an economic crisis that cannot be solved by economic policies. Just like WW2 saved the US economy, the Ukraine war has been helping the US economy. US may need an additional new war to save its economy. Either China or Russia is too big for US to chew, I would pick Iran.”

Exactly. Lacy Hunt is overlooking is that the powers that be are not going to allow the world to slip into a depression without…

9 nov 2023

Nota

Might be the topping tail. BlackRock filed for Ethereum ETF. Thursdays (today) closed negative 70% of the time.

10 nov 2023

Nota

Worth a listen on double-speed.

youtu.be/MnHPPWUWj30
(Bitcoin Bull Trap - BTC In Wyckoff Distribution - Bitcoin About To Start It's First Test To 32K)

10 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “This has more momentum behind it than we can see in the charts.”

Hellstorm2, possibly. Let’s see if the posited Wycoff distribution is invalidated. I doubt it. The troublesome outlier though is the S&P might still rally to a new ATH. But as I pointed out that Bitcoin leads, and from May to mid-July it was down-to-sideways while S&P was rallying. I noted this (in my public comments) before Ron Walker ever mentioned it in his videos.

> “interesting. but wasn't the btc crash due to FUD over regulations destroying crypto and BTC has never been in an equities bear market. now that it seems to have survived the regulation and perhaps equities bear market - so it makes sense to recover?”

simplejoe1, hopefully you read in the updates on this idea, my friend “QAnon” and I discuss that very issue you raise. Maybe you are raising it again to elicit any further thoughts I have? Well was FTX all just FUD or was it actual unwinding of massive leverage and FOMO hopium? I guess to some degree those are one in the same, in that those greedy who buy the top, panic sell the bottom, which is almost analogous to “leverage.”

Ron Walker had presented the idea that BlackRock may want to crash the markets so they can scoop up crypto for their ETFs from panic sellers. QAnon thinks all the panic sellers already sold the bottom at 15.4k. Actually I know someone who was almost ready to sell that level but I convinced him to hold on. So it seemed to be very near to but not quite at the final capitulation level. Also there was not absolute despair. We did not have a prominent person in the space such as Tone Vays predicting 600 or 1500 as he did at 3.1k in 2018. We had Gareth Soloway (correctly?) predicting 13k from the top (or at least since 40k), but he started to hedge his bets and was telling everyone he started buying some below 20k. Then he turned cautious again ~32k. We have seen a lot of euphoria since 15.4k. Almost everyone thinks the bottom is behind us. When almost everyone thinks the same thing, I as a sigma male get paranoid. When the herd goes left, I go right if other signals are confirming I should such as at inflection points.

I guess I would relate the current juncture to 2018 when the final drop from 6k to 3k had not yet occurred. Many were confident the excesses had already been wrung out of the system, and were not expecting the sudden final 50% drop, which after the fact was attributed to Craig “Faketoshi” Wright FUD. In fact there was a graphic which I had saved which depicts this.

As you say Bitcoin is now facing macroeconomic headwinds it had not faced before 2018, i.e. vulnerable for another crash in the equities market (after S&P makes a new ATH which I covered in my update today).

The above is in addition to the other reasons I have which were already presented in the updates for this published idea.

10 nov 2023

Nota

Big correction looming by March.

youtu.be/t4onXujCrpw?t=325
(MONEY MAKING CHEAT CODE 100% ACCURATE LATEST)

11 nov 2023

Nota

I am famous now:

newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/analyst-bitcoin-crypto-crash/

goodblackcat, hahaha. Ty for heads up. The writer accurately summarized, which is nice.

======

THOSE WHO THINK THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF A CRASH, ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION THAT THE GOVT SHUTDOWN OF THE USA IS LOOMING.

ALSO EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE USA IS ENTERING RECESSIONARY SPIRAL.

=====

They explain that the EuroDollar market which is all the foreign bonds (i.e. loans) denominated in dollars are not owed to the U.S. but to foreigners, which is why the world can not get off the dollar standard without massive pain abroad. The Chinese selling U.S. Treasuries is worse for China than for the U.S., thus clearly why Winnie-the-Poo needed Covid as a pretext for Chinese to self-sacrifice. We are headed into WWIII and the Thucydides trap which is what ultimately dethrones the dollar. But more importantly, Bitcoin is what replaces it.

youtu.be/DbBUv4IepuU?t=223
(How The Dollar Will Actually Get Dethroned (Brent Johnson))

“I’ve come to conclusion that it’s impossible to end the dollar as the reserve currency without massive volatility.”

“Dollar will rise during the de-dollarization process.”

youtube.com/watch?v=rpaLUb0abCk
(Dollar Milkshake Wrecking Ball | Brent Johnson & Michael Kao)

WWIII is the solution. It will force the world's capital to stampede into the dollar both for a flight-to-safety and meet margin calls on EuroDebt, defaulting all EuroDollar debt in a scorched earth spiral, that wipes out the entire otherwise inescapable inertia. This of course also depends on the U.S. military being severely weakened in the process. The die has been cast, as U.S. has insufficient industrial capacity to sustain its military without China as the supplier. Bitcoin is waiting in the wings to be the next reserve currency in the new multipolar world. This was all predicted on the Denver Airport wall murals since the 1990s, ditto the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story which anointed Bitcoin.

46:00 why UK is headed into (“double-digit”) hyperinflation.

11 nov 2023

Nota

ADDED COMMENT: This video contains much useful discussion of the variables, but these guys do not seem to understand that the Minsky Moment is forcing the Great Reset which will incorporate the orchestrated, premeditated WWIII (of which C19 was the first bowl poured out intentionally) underway to wipe out the U.S. military, globalization and the EuroDollar problem. It will all be reset with Bitcoin as was planned by the powerful entity behind the curtain who created Bitcoin in 1988.

11 nov 2023

Nota

FOLLOW-UP AS A FINISH LISTENING TO THAT VIDEO:
”Assets with no counter-party risk will be at a premium.”

There is only one such asset which can also move over distance in instant time. And this is important because in the multipolar world post-2032 no country is going to trust the counter-party risk of any other nation. National sovereignty will no longer exist as fiscal discipline will instead be enslaved by the fiscal discipline of the global Bitcoin unit-of-account, replacing the EuroDollar for denominated loans. Be careful what you wish for. The post-dollar world will be quite dystopian.

11 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/JUS6SOoU7QA
(WARNING: A Nasty Manipulation in Crypto & Stocks.)

Buy the rumor, sell the actual event. Of course, this is a bull trap. Bitcoin will make new lows before the halving repeating 2020 and 2018. The capitulation wave C/Y leg is yet to come. Bitcoin is in a A-B-C (aka W-Y-Y) correction. We are at the peak of B/X. S&P may tag new ATH before the H1 2024 crash. Remember from May to mid-July BTC was down to sideways while S&P rallied. Expecting a repeat. Go back to test ~31k, then back up one last time in December or January to ~39k, then crapola into the looming crash of all markets. S&P will not make lower-low but BTC will.

11 nov 2023

Nota

Marc Faber aka Dr. Doom nails it. Been following him for 15 years.

youtu.be/GksY5TASYQw
(We Are Already In A Recession Despite Strong Liquidity with Marc Faber)

11 nov 2023

Nota

From Crypto Anup.

youtu.be/C38iWgxFzmM?t=362

11 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/-Xlg1tFdCPw?t=526
(Bitcoin SURGE on HOLD Has Ethereum PUMPING: Is Crypto NOW at Risk of a Crash? | Jason Pizzino)

8:45 Pizzino claims the posited Wycoff distribution is invalidated by the posited Wycoff accumulation coming off the 15.4k low as the posited accumulation Spring. This belies a literal reading of the Wycoff schematic rules or description. Once the price has exited the trading range (TR) in phase E, which was back in March, the reactions should be short-lived. Perhaps ostensibly Jason has not paid attention that the top of the TR is below the PS on the schematic. Whereas in fact what has formed since March is a perfect Elliot Wave ending diagonal, with exactly 38% moves for each 3 wave, thus targeting ~40k as the ending price of wave 5 after a pullback for subwave b of the 3 wave of wave 5. Jason apparently got lazy/arrogant here and failed to reread the Wycoff schematic details before dissing his audience in a noticeably condescending or dismissive/disrespectful manner from my perspective. This does not need to be interpreted as a Wycoff distribution forming. It can simply be the ending diagonal of what I believe is a larger W-X-Y correction which will bring lower-lows for Bitcoin. Of course Jason thinks this is highly unlikely because of his guru and his real estate cycle fixation. A lower low for Bitcoin does not have to invalidate the bullish trend ongoing for said cycle. The S&P is unlikely to make a lower-low. Bitcoin is just weakening and much weaker than it was in 2019/20. We know that because of how long BTC loitered below the 200 MA and also Steve Courtney’s 5:3 ratio has predicted the top of every bull market and if 15.4k was the low, then 79k will be the top. How can BTC continue to rally so soon before the halving if the top will only be 79k in 2025. Makes no sense.

11 nov 2023

Nota

Corrected link steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190513t224433919z

11 nov 2023

Nota

Found another trend line which might indicate overhead resistance, originating from the 2017 ATH ~19.7k. This actually come from Gareth Soloway. For some unknown reason he thinks it points to 47k.

11 nov 2023

Nota

There is no popular support for this sucker’s bull trap rally.

Bitcoin mooning, but the public interest is not.

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-11 2023-11-11&q=bitcoin

Slightly better for the U.S. relative to prior ATH:

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-11 2023-11-11&geo=US&q=bitcoin

I remember the fervor did not start for the prior bull market until Bitcoin exceeded the prior ATH of ~20k. So this means the public will probably not get excited until Bitcoin exceeds ~65k circa 2025, which will be right at the top and the public will buy the top.

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin

12 nov 2023

Nota

Bullish RSI divergence on 4-hour chart during this pause. If this breaks out to 41k, the bearish RSI divergence on the daily will be invalidated, then only weekly will have bearish RSI divergence remaining.

C.f. also my discussion with goodblackcat in the comments.

12 nov 2023

Nota

A salient question in the comments:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSD/ZiNWlLwD-Another-March-2020-epic-crash-coming-in-H1-2024/#tc10749315

> “very interesting. but regarding your point that we are not at the level of total despair as in previous cycles. could it be that BTC is now well established and this won't happen again? after all, it used to be that any kind of uncertainty dropped the BTC price. notice the middle east war did not drop crypto. also people used to think of BTC as a ponzi scam. now it is getting credibility by the likes of blackrock CEO, ETFs. there is just not the same uncertainty as in previous cycles. so maybe we won't have this stage this cycle?”

simplejoe1, first some general epistemology. Two useful heuristics especially w.r.t. markets (less so for political questions and civilization collapse because can-kicking can exceed our lifetime) are that what seems straightforward is usually not (i.e. there are issues lurking which you are not being informed about) and whatever the MSM narrative is always presented to fool the most people. For example, I happen to know that the current Bitcoin which everyone thinks is the official Bitcoin is actually an impostor (and this has nothing to do with BCV nor BCH) and that everyone who is storing their BTC in addresses that do not being with a 1, i.e. storing in bc1 or 3, will implicitly donate all their BTC to the miners (no need to have the private key) when Satoshi’s legacy protocol is restored. I have blogged extensively about this. Crypto is not being adopted at all, except Bitcoin as a safe haven, digital gold. Crypto only has one market right now which is the market of greater fool FOMO sheepeople. With that in mind, reevaluate what you just contemplated and ask yourself is the public in FOMO fever right now? IOW, view crypto correctly as a Tulip bubble, which is a much more realistic perspective on reality. And note I am a s/w developer since age 13 in 1978 so I very much want decentralization technology to succeed.

12 nov 2023

Nota

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSD/ZiNWlLwD-Another-March-2020-epic-crash-coming-in-H1-2024/#tc10749375

dizzidTrade, curiosity got the best of me. I decided to do a quick Google search. Ostensibly the alleged fraud goes back to the Ethereum ICO and that ostensibly some Ethereum people were in bed with the SEC as alleged by XRP’s attorney. This is quite possible although still most likely to play out as FUD, and perhaps not directly involving Vitalik but rather people around him. I remember Charles Hoskinson was kicked out of the Ethereum project ostensibly because he wanted better legal compliance. Note back in 2013, Charles and I had briefly touched on the possibly of starting a crypto project after he was ousted by Dan Larimer from Bitshares, but I told him I could not proceed due to my illness. I did give him some feedback on Vitalik’s plans before he decided to join Ethereum as a co-founder.

12 nov 2023

Nota

Crypto Anup is citing the Three Hills and a Mountain pattern which projects 41k for BTC. The 62% retracement for the valley before the mountain was fulfilled exactly.

youtu.be/cQ2Tu_8UAkY?t=84

12 nov 2023

Nota

CORRECTION: the valley retracement was only 38.2%. I had my Fib retracement tool reversed when I wrote 62%. The retracement is claimed to be 50 - 62%, and extension for the hill can range. So I would conclude there is only limited knowledge about this pattern and projection could be anywhere between 38 - 47k. So this does not really help us identify the top other than another confirmation of this rally.

12 nov 2023

Nota

If break out to the upside on what appears to be an ascending triangle for ETHUSD, then indeed going 3200 as I had predicted back in Q4 2022. Note TOTAL3 Crypto market cap has similar ascending triangle potential breakout.

This would create the FOMO for a great fool wave X or a W-X-Y correction.

12 nov 2023

Nota

[ Album ]
I’m leaning away from the Wycoff distribution being the correct interpretation. If ETH is about to break out to the upside, S&P going to rally to an ATH double-top and depending on how much ETHBTC rallies, then BTC to 41 - 51k.

The Vitalik fraud accusations seem to be well timed to be a buy the rumor sell the news.

13 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/GiHT6TTy7Ws
(The 2024 Recession is coming)

youtu.be/uH8bPjeyVM0
(1.7 Million More People May Lose Their Job as Major Recession Indicator is Flashing Red! | lowkey economist)

Don't forget the potential government shutdown to add fuel to the fire of scorching the economy. Also Europe and China are cratering much more egregiously than the U.S.A.. What will spark the economy again is a crisis situation that forces the Fed to reflate. Soft landing would make sense in a vacuum but there is a lot going on which can exacerbate the situation. The Demonrats need an Emergency Powers Act excuse to steal the POTUS election again. Either bring back Covid or manufacture a new emergency.

> “We need a new president and senate.”

Can not happen without revolution. The coup d'etat of 2020 is not going to allow fair elections ever again, until we forcefully take back control. And any force we use will be prosecuted with their kangeroo courts. The U.S. is collapsing because of this. They will take us into WWIII as the Emergency Powers Act encore to C19 as the pretext for stealing POTUS elections. I wonder when most Americans will realize what is actually going on. Must be too shocking and cognitive dissonance for them to admit to themselves that elections do not matter at all anymore.

13 nov 2023

Nota

Importantly I just found out that if the Fed buys all the U.S. Treasury debt, then the debt will be interest-free to the Treasury, because the Fed pays all profits back to the Treasury.

This means the U.S. economy can remain strong while the rest of the globe collapses due to rising interest rates. The problem for the elite controlling the U.S. empire is that for now the Fed is keeping massive private sector liquidity locked up in mutual funds by paying high interest rates directly to depositors. But if the Fed wants to return profits to the Treasury, it must lower short-term interest rates and allow private sector capital to flow out. But as this causes the dollar to become very strong, rising with assets, markets and interest rates simultaneously, TPTB do not want this private sector capital to be free to flee the bubble to sovereign assets because this will be a threat to the junta which has grabbed power in a coup d'etat in 2020. The Canadian trucker scenario will expand in scope. Thus the need to move everyone onto cashless, 666 CBDCs where all speculative bubbles are forever enslaved in panopticon fiat which can deplatform any dissenters at the flip of a switch. And this will cause the transition away from the dollar as the reserve currency after ~2028 (ultimately to legacy protocol Bitcoin because there is no other viable choice).

brookings.edu/articles/what-if-the-federal-reserve-books-losses-because-of-its-quantitative-easing/

youtu.be/qn9YkwX0Hew?t=693
(The Debt Can’t be Repaid - So What will Happen Instead? | Heresy Financial)

=========

Gareth Soloway explains how the Fed eventually loses control of long-dated U.S. Treasury interest rates if they do not directly monetize them. Which is another reason elite who control the U.S. empire are moving us towards WWIII and towards CBDCs with capital controls, so that when the Fed needs to go nuclear, they have some tool of control over spending, capital flight, etc..

Gareth also points out that markets are bumping into intense overhead resistance. Likely due for a pullback.

Gareth inadvertently made me aware that ETHUSD also has a bulllish Three Hills and Mountain pattern (which he had posited was a bearish H&S now potentially invalidated), which had textbook 50% retracement on the valley, projecting to 2600 to 2850.

VERY IMPORTANT: Bitcoin is about to form bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart! ETH probably needs one more drive lower to ~1950 to establish bullish RSI divergence on daily and 12 hour.

Looks like BTC to 40 to 41k looming. ETH to 2600 to 2850 on a break out of ascending triangle. So clearly ETH to out perform BTC.

BTC dominance (excluding stable coins and ETH) appears bullish short-term by about +15%, then the altcoins will rally. ETH appears to account for roughly ~50 - 67% potential upside from ~1950 on the crypto market cap chart as well.

youtu.be/FDyC_HSjFH4?t=55
(Mega Cap Slams Trade Levels, Crypto Pump Stops Here, Gold Miner Alert)

13 nov 2023

Nota

From comments section:

> “I am waiting for an update from Ron Walker to see if he will abandon his Wycoff distribution thesis for Bitcoin.”

Well Ron Walker is doubling-down on his Wycoff distribution. Probably because he is ignorant of the Three Hills, Valley and Mountain pattern. He does not see that the RSI just formed a hidden (aka phantom) RSI divergence on the daily chart for this pullback. This reminds me of how he was bearish at the bottom 15.4k and missed much of the initial rally. He later tried to rewrite his history and claim he called every move correctly. Ron has a bit of ego and honesty problem.

youtu.be/iOH98oZ1TU0
(BULL TRAP - Bitcoin CRASH To Test 32K Likely This Week - BTC ETF Trap Being Set For Retail Investors)

13 nov 2023

Nota

I forgot to insert the word ‘bullish’ in front of RSI divergence in my prior update.

======

youtu.be/TGyJPmDRqEU
(This Bitcoin Chart Is Indicating The BIGGEST Altseason for Crypto Is Still Ahead | Jason Pizzino)

Upvoted. Well done and coherent analysis of the phases of the bull market which everyone should watch. Agree with everything in this video, except disagree Jason’s implication that another deep crash mimicking March 2020 is not likely. A key facet of the final rally into Q4 2019, was that it formed bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart which required a deep crash to reset to bullish. We have the same situation again, which will require at least a decline below 24.8k to reset. Could possibly turn bullish ~18k or might require a lower-low than 15.4k. As well the altcoins will make lower-lows as they did in 2020 and it will be worse than 2020. So although ETH is likely to hit 2600 to 3200 before the looming crash, it is quite irresponsible of Jason Pizzino to be implying to his viewers that mega altcoin season is ahead and that they can not lose their shirt and the entire farm in the interim. I hope he does not get sued for not providing sufficient disclosures and caveats.

14 nov 2023

Nota

Note I am not ruling out BTC to 45k, and in fact looking more likely.

ADDED: @JasonPizzinoOfficial Follow-up on my prior comment. Appears BTC and ETH both have the Three Hills (valley) and a Mountain pattern, not a Wycoff distribution. Looks like 40 to 45k incoming for BTC and 2600 to 3200 for ETH. After that, look out below. Timber.

youtube.com/watch?v=TGyJPmDRqEU&lc=UgzD3SKDs3cDTWr1r8N4AaABAg.9x3pezjzvYJ9x4ntjFiQoJ
(This Bitcoin Chart Is Indicating The BIGGEST Altseason for Crypto Is Still Ahead)

> “Which AI app did you use? Great writing. Poor and incorrect summary.”

@JasonPizzinoOfficial It’s good I have you on record now, so I can point to your incorrect interpretation of the markets when the recessionary crash underway pulls the markets back down, before the Fed reflates again. Your blind spot Jason is ostensibly the geopolitics that are necessary at this juncture as we approach the end of the dollar as the reserve currency and Thucydides trap, which paradoxically will drive the dollar, interest rates and markets simultaneously sky high during the looming yield curve control where the U.S. Treasury monetizes Treasury debt. Did you know the Fed returns all profits to the Treasury, thus interest rate expense will cost the Treasury nothing?

Anyway, C19 was required by the uniparty, warmonger Neocon elite who control the U.S. empire to facilitate their subversion of populism (aka Trump) during a POTUS year. There was a coup d'etat in 2020. 2024 is another POTUS event and to hold onto the reins of power they will need another anti-democratic, totalitarian Emergency Powers Act crisis to subvert while fooling the populism which has only increased since 2020. You seem to not even contemplate that Hamas in lawnmower powered hang gliders could not subvert the Iron Dome (nor could terrorists armed with box cutters subvert NORAD for an hour without being intercepted by F-15s in 2001) without those events being inside jobs. Your real estate cycle thesis is not incorrect nor will it be invalidated by a severe correction in H1 2024. Volatility increases near the apogee of a monetary reset. And to react to your other comment, I do not need ChatGPT Jason, my IQ is sufficiently up there to compose English without any AI assistant.

Again I point you to Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U. channel) 5:3 ratio thesis, which has predicted the top price of every bull market exactly. It currently predicts that the top in 2025 will be only ~413% above the bottom. So if 15.4k was the bottom, then 79k will be the top. How can the crypto market head to 50k so soon before the halving without any severe correction if the top will only be 79 in 2025? Makes no sense. Something is incorrect in your thinking about the phases of the bull market. And I am telling you that your mistake is assuming that C19 was a random event and thus that it will not repeat in some form. There is a bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart which can not be invalidated unless Bitcoin makes a new ATH. Thus it is guaranteed that Bitcoin will after this bull trap rally crash below 24.8k at least. And your disrespect of me will end at that point if you have any capability of introspection. Note I also identified Wycoff Accumulation independent of you (all public on my trading view) and I also called the bottom at the exact 15.4k price. I also had identified publicly a harmonic pattern in October 2022 that said ETH would go to 3200 before crash anew and that is still in play. As well my harmonic pattern calls in 2022 predicted exactly the summer tops for the markets as well as the crash in Natural Gas to ~2. I was not bearish on the way up. Now I have identified a Three Hills (valley to 24.8k) and a Mountain pattern underway which provides for this wave B or X of this A-B-C or W-X-Y bear market correction from the top which is still underway. There will be a significant crash or pullback before or just after the halving. It might go to lower lows. It will be worse for altcoins. If Bitcoin makes a lower low ~13.5k, then the top in 2025 will only be ~70k, providing for a triple top which spells doom for Bitcoin in the next bear market.

14 nov 2023

Nota

youtube.com/watch?v=8hBXA5ooebk&lc=UgwWdD_8xEi9ThxQj0x4AaABAg.9x4iUNfVO2m9x50eru4PrQ
(Are Bitcoin & Crypto On Schedule To CORRECT BEFORE The Halving? | Cycle Explained | Jason Pizzino)

@JasonPizzinoOfficial need to get your attention one more time Jason. Upvoted again and as per the prior video, I think your analysis is excellent. Highly recommended for everyone to watch and listen carefully so as to refine their understanding of the bull market phases and potential fractal patterns. Kudos for clarifying your prior video and making readers aware of a possible correction of some sort in H1 2024 and thus before the 2025 moon. So they will not bet the farm here at what is likely a topping out process for the first stage of the bull market before the halving volatility. Note I am first expecting another thrust up for crypto, because all my analysis of stonks (including S&P) says they are headed up for an ATH or double-top before any H1 2024 crash or severe correction.

An open question is the severity of such a possible correction (for stonks and crypto). You have since the prospective bottom in 2022 leaned away from the C19 contagion repeating. I addressed that issue in more detail in my follow-up comment on your prior video. Note I do not sell subscriptions thus I am not promoting anything. Just interacting for knowledge sake. Whereas, I have leaned towards Bitcoin weakening in each cycle and much weaker per the amount of time it spent below the 200 MA unlike prior cycles. Also Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U., no affiliation of mine) 5:3 ratio hypothesis which has predicted every bull market price top, says the next top in 2025 can not exceed ~5.13 times the bottom (i.e. +413%). Thus if 15.4k was the bottom, then top in 2025 will be ~79k. Yet if Bitcoin were to decline to a lower-low ~13k, the top would be projected ~70k, which would be a doomsday triple top.

Expounding on my bearish RSI divergence point (and other points arguing for why another contagion may be forming of which I did not even go into detail about how much the economies outside the U.S. are weakening which is exactly what was happening in 2019 as well at least in W. Europe) from my said prior comments, note the different Elliot Wave structure of the bounce from the bottom in 2018 compared to 2022. The significant rally from 3.1k to 13.9k in 2019 was wave 1 of a bullish 5 wave structure that completed with the 2021 top. Thus the corrective wave 2 for the C19 contagion was not a lower-low. Whereas, coming off the prospective 15.4k low, there is a bull trap 5 wave structure forming which will complete in next couple of months or less. Thus this is a corrective wave B or X of an A-B-C aka W-X-Y bear market correction from the ATH. Thus Bitcoin is likely to make a lower-low in H1 2024.

=======

youtu.be/WcL7LOitfps
(SPY QQQ Update | Henry James)

Thanks for pointing out the Cup & Handle. I was not paying attention. Not that Cup began on S&P March 2022, not the January 2022 top. Thus the typical 30% projection agrees exactly with my harmonic top projection (since the Q4 2022 bottom) of 4850 to 4950. The first target of that harmonic projection predicted the summer top and ostensibly the maximum extension will predict the final top of this rally before the recession crash looming in H1 2024. I am not 100% confident of a pullback here. If crypto pulls back significantly it will likely be a leading indicator that stonks will.

14 nov 2023

Nota

OPTICALARTdotCOM is convinced that if BTC crosses his blue Fib circles ring at ~40.5k that Bitcoin MUST moon, thus he thinks it will not and will instead cross his orange Fib circles ring and crash to the downside. I proffered an alternative scenario.

youtube.com/watch?v=q_no0P6WY6U&lc=Ugz04qmnQzuYodk8zlh4AaABAg.9x42sNEZ9EF9x5Hn55_Mxh
(Epic move for bitcoin soon! I hope you're ready to play this. | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

> > “When btc crashed to 16k you Said that we are going to 9k ... I dont remeber that you Said to go long.”
>
> “Video is there. I referenced it in a few videos back.”

He did go long when crossed the blue Fib circle near the 15.4k bottom so he was very prescient and demonstrated the ability to adjust his thesis to what his charts were informing him. He just did not think it would rally as high as it did. Upvoted this video, but I wish he could touch on some specific levels and dates, considering that the S&P is clearly in a bullish Cup & Handle thus likely to proceed up to my harmonic 1.13 extension target to form a new ATH which I identified at the bottom in Q4 2022. So if BTC is headed to 40 to 45 before the crash, what levels on your charts correspond, and how and when will the crash take place if the moon from crossing the blue Fib circle has transpired?

OPTICALARTdotCOM the price action has never approached a cross of the orange ring from being above it. Crossing the blue ring has not always lead immediately to a pump. In the past the price rallied after a cross, then came plummeting back down to retest the blue ring as support at a lower price than the said bullish cross. Thus what if the blue ring is crossed bullish, but the price then comes back down, crosses the orange ring from above for the first, and plummets over the next 2 to 3 months down the outside of the blue ring to a lower-low price for Bitcoin before it retests blue ring as support and restarts the bull market from there?

14 nov 2023

Nota

BTC appears to be inching down to retest the median dashed line of the parallel channel I diagrammed, to between ~35.6 to 35.9k, while staying above the downtrend line of the prior posited symmetric wedge. After it might rally again to the top of the channel to perhaps ~40.5k or maybe it will breakout to the upside of the channel?

Amazingly I had Nov 13 diagrammed on my chart since a few months ago, as the expected peak or parabolic topping. I also had purchased cheap December calls on ETH expecting the rally back when ETH was below 1600.

14 nov 2023

Nota

Toying with possible scenarios.

14 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “shelby3, No the PUBLIC is in denial, regret and fear after those who lost or had their assets tied up in all the chaos from FTX. Once it really takes off, they will be refinancing their homes and trying to buy with credit cards, then the whales will rug pull the whole damn market again. Rinse and repeat. Not enough noise. Big chance for the big boys to really make a killing from GP.”

Hellstorm2, you have not disagreed with me about market psychology, unless you are implying that there is not enough FOMO noise in the market right for another leg down in the bear market to lower lows? Please find my other explanations in the comments (responses to simplejoe1) where I explained my opinion/perspective on why the crypto markets have not yet hit rock bottom despair. The public might be turned away, but you need the actual hardcore crypto people giving up to have a bottom. I used the example of Tone Vays calling for $900 and $1500 at the 3.1k bottom in 2018 and that was after everyone thought 6k was the bottom (analogous to currently everyone thinks 15.4k was the bottom) and suddenly the floor fell out from under them and we were at 3.1k. Also I have numerous points in my updates such as my arguments presented to Jason Pizzino, that the crypto market is only in a bull trap bounce off the low, and lower lows are incoming in H1 2024 before the nascent bull market kicks off in earnest. And yes by the top in 2025 or 2026, the public will once again be in another irrational Tulip bubble as you describe but that is not going to be happening in 2023 nor in early 2024. Have not even hit the halving yet. Too soon in terms of the phases of the bull market which repeat. Also catch up on my logic in the updates to get a fully formed dose of my arguments. Your comment is appreciated.

15 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

simplejoe1, the impostor Bitcoin (created by the 2017 soft fork) will go to $0 or nearly so when the miners take all the ANYONECANSPEND BTC which is incorrectly stored by fools in addresses that begin with 3 or bc1 instead 1. This will probably not transpire until some years after 2025 unless it occurs at the top in 2025/26. Legacy protocol Bitcoin (i.e. those BTC stored in addresses that begin with 1, not referring to BSV nor BCH chains) will continue to appreciate over the decades reaching perhaps $1 million eventually. I bet you all the ETFs will store their BTC in addresses that do not begin with 1. So all of that BTC will end up being donated to the miners.

The period from 2026 forward is going to be massive chaos. World war, the tax authorities will be going after everyone, Bitcoin as everyone knows it will be destroyed, the altcoins will be dust, etc.. The dystopian central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will likely be launched and cash might be banned and phased out. The rules for reporting every transaction by brokers to the IRS will take effect January 1, 2026 applicable to all transactions from 2025. Strangely if the described attack occurs at the top in 2025/26, then many people will have a huge tax bill for the involuntary airdrop to the ANYONECANSPEND yet their Bitcoins will have fled their wallets poof it’s gone (taken by the miners on the blockchain) so they will have nothing to pay their tax bill with.

15 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “shelby3, The cluster at $36,238-36,390 is an easy terrain to open short positions. If BTC breaks it at all, it will be tested again from the top, which in my opinion is a transaction with minimal risk and high profit potential. Let's see how this ages.”

goodblackcat, the scenario for a quick higher high lurch seems to have been invalidated. My thought is that this pullback has to drag out for a while, because no ETH approval is coming by Friday November 17 when the window to approve all 12 closes for a while as 3 of the applications go into a public comment period. The hard deadline is January 10 when the Ark application expires. The BlackRock application expires January 24. Also stonks pushed up higher so they may still have a couple of weeks to complete a retest before heading to ATHs. I do not think stonks will complete this entire final bull trap to ATHs within November. Has to stretch out into December and perhaps January. So I lean to the scenario of more pullback on crypto before any attempt to break out to higher highs.

16 nov 2023

Nota

Well f*ck I need to remember that I am usually correct the first time, even when I was just toying around…



From the comments:

goodblackcat, do you mean never see 40k on this momentum thrust or never see it again after a significant pullback and reaccumulation? I do agree the current momentum is played out. Bearish RSI divergence reforming on the daily. Remember I wrote there was bullish, hidden RSI divergence that had formed, so this thrust up was technically necessary before a deep reaccumulation can ensue. C.f. also update.

16 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/qd_Gl3sXaa4
(WARNING: THEY’RE LYING TO YOU ABOUT BITCOIN RIGHT NOW | Crypto Crew U.)

> “I agree with you Steve except I think we might have a red 6 month candle if we go back to test our base so it might add another 6 months so either January or June could be the top 🙏👏”

Indeed, Steve has an oversight (i.e. mistake) here, although he did mention the possibility of a second top in July 2025 so he is not entirely off. Here follows is the additional nuanced insight. The past two cycles have been eight 6 months periods (i.e. 48 months aka 4 years) total (which is the period between each halving). This means the top will be in H2 2025, not H1 (i.e. four 6 month periods after current one, not 3). And to concur with your point, I have provided an extremely detailed analysis on my public trading view as to why the 15.4k low will be retested and probably breached this time to 13 to 14k. In fact, Steve's 5.3 ratio ends up fitting perfectly at 5.13 times in a way he has not realized yet if he does not go read my detailed analysis.

> “Great video Steve! One question though, what about the 16 yr cycle theory? If we are at the end of a 16 yr cycle then this last bull run will be much shorter than previous ones. It could mean we will already reach a cycle top between March and July 2024. This could catch everyone by surprise and for sure we will not reach 100k and in-line with you 5.3 theory. Do you think it’s likely we are at the end of a 16 yr cycle? Like to hear your opinion. Thanks Steve!”

Actually it is two 8.6 year cycles per Martin Armstrong’s ECM (Economic Confidence Model) based on a multiple of the mathematical constant Pi. So that would extend it by 1.2 years from your expectation. Note the macroeconomic ECM (not Bitcoin) does have a key turning point in the date range you mentioned, thus very likely Bitcoin will retest the 15.4k low and I actually have very detailed reasoning on my public trading view as to why it is likely to make a slightly lower low 13 to 14k. Steve’s 5.3 ratio top ~79k for the posited 15.4k low, is a key factor in my analysis. Bottoming ~13 - 14k, will make 70k the triple top if you draw a trendline through the double top of 2021. I have many other reasons. You should go read them. C.f. also my other comment explaining that the top will be in H2 2025, not H1 because every cycle is 48 months in duration (Steve has a slight oversight in his interpretation in this video).

16 nov 2023

Nota

Retail FOMO is baaack!

youtu.be/9FJtBbrOB5I
(BITCOIN & CRYPTO: everybody is WRONG right now! | MMCrypto)

Are you aware of Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio which has predicted the top exactly for every bull market? It predicts that if 15.4k was the bottom, then the top in 2025 will be 79k. Thus how can BTC go to 48k now and then not repeat the corona crash? BTC will moon now, but 48 to 51k max. Then it will retest 20k, possibly 14k in H2 2024, before the bull market resumes. Be careful. You always get wiped out to the downside. I hope you have matured and learned your lessons by now. You look more matured now, more focused and more cautious. I ignored you during the entire bear market, and I will ignore you on the looming retest.

16 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/BhrweqBVt1k
(These 7 Crypto Coins Will 15x In DEC (Last Chance) | Alex Becker)

Problem is that this bull trap will be topping out by January and we have another corona-like correction before the bull market starts in earnest after the halving. The timing of this video is daft. I do not think viewers can resist inserting their phallus into the proverbial pencil sharpener, regardless how many times you repeat the disclaimer. You are hilarious entertaining though bro.

16 nov 2023

Nota

HERE IS A MASSIVE AND VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE (as promised in the comments)

Altcoins not including ETH, USDT, USDC in bullish accumulation with potential +50% upside, although bearish RSI divergence on daily will need a pullback to dashed line to reset bullish to enable subsequent upside breakout. Bearish RSI divergence on weekly can’t be invalidated and will require a massive crash after this bull trap completes, i.e. this is a corrective wave B/X yet with +50% upside before completion.



Alternative explanation is already in breakout with backtest completed, thus might continue rallying w/o any pullback. But this descending pattern posited by E.K.C. makes less sense to me.



E.K.C. pointed out that volatility on the weekly is at lowest levels, thus significant rally is likely. But he also agreed overextended on the daily and needs a pullback, thus again the descending (i.e. symmetric wedge) pattern seems less valid.

youtu.be/0L_KIkSEFdI?t=298
(Next Macro Low Emerges For Crypto Investors & Bitcoin Continues)

Note Jason Pizzino points out this is also a Wycoff accumulation which since his video has moved into the SOS of phase D, thus invalidating his explanation of how there could be a pullback around the halving that is still within the Wycoff accumulation. Thus affirming that my expectations are correct.

youtu.be/6ur6nCDn2lI?t=630
(These Two Crypto Charts Are Indicating When Bitcoin Investors Should LOAD UP! | Wyckoff Trading)

Perplexing though that BTC Dominance as measured against all altcoins not including ETH, USDT, USDC, has bullish RSI divergence on both daily and weekly charts, which daily chart requires at least +10% rally, although an intraday wick lower-low wouldn’t necessarily invalidate either — which could resolve the other issue below.



Yet for said rally to complete on a pullback would require BTC to fall by 10% less to only ~700B market cap, thus ~37.3k pullback only allowed (unless as aforementioned the pullback was an intraday wick). Is this bullishness thus implying BTC will rally to 40k (after any pullback) before altcoins breakout? I.e. altcoins will lag on next BTC thrust higher? That is unless one posits that said altcoins have topped out already, which I already explained is unlikely.

16 nov 2023

Nota

ETHBTC must pullback ~5% to reset bullish RSI divergence on the daily but upside is 0.0625 or 0.0705, which if ETHUSD hits 3200 as expected, implies BTC 45 - 51k. Yet ETHUSD must remain above 1800 to sustain bullish RSI divergence on daily.





E.K.C. had also expected this ETHBTC bull trap bounce, and a continuation to lower-lows after.

youtu.be/gwHqHaw9GZ0?t=41
(Don't Get Caught In The Ethereum Dumpster Fire)

I can model BTC & ETH hitting ~45k & 3200 by January w/possible ~34k & 1870 - 1916 pullback in November. ETH 1870, BTC 34k = ETHBTC 0.055 which is plausible if ETHBTC bottoms on pullback before ETHUSD does (on wicks).









The big picture on ETHBTC is rallying to backtest the breakdown from the wedge @ 0.0705 over next month or two, which will create bearish RSI divergence on the weekly and monthly requiring a significantly lower-low to reset them bullish again.

Although Jason Pizzino thinks my blue uptrend line will hold as support (I do not):

youtu.be/6ur6nCDn2lI?t=518
(These Two Crypto Charts Are Indicating When Bitcoin Investors Should LOAD UP!)

And thinks that current move up is bearish as a fulfilled back test of bearish wedge (note I think still inside bullish channel, confirmed by RSI divergences):

youtu.be/Qxfw-Pl1PiM?t=556
(We May NEVER See These Prices in Crypto Again)





[ Album ]
Very difficult to predict Solana‘s posited looming pullback, but here’s one possibility. Note this would be the first lower-low for SOL on this parabolic rally, so this would trigger a lot of fear, maybe instead SOL continues to make higher lows and higher highs. Yet note the first bearish RSI divergence on the daily of this rally.

This posited pullback range is corresponding to BTC pulling back to 34.6 to 35.7k. Next lower option corresponds to BTC 33.7k.

SOLUSD would need to surpass 140 (more than double) to invalidate bearish RSI divergence on the monthly. Bearish RSI divergence on the weekly can only be fully invalidated with a new ATH, although it can reset bullish numerous times with choppy pullbacks on the way up.

Best guess is 115 - 130 and SOLBTC 0.0023 - 0.0029. Which is projecting BTC to a top in the 40 - 50k range.

16 nov 2023

Nota

If set chart to non-log-scaled as Pizzino did, then I can clearly show that ETHBTC is headed down to the level I expect. He cheated with his support line drawn sloppy and daft. I commented on his aforelinked video as follows:

“Draw your support line correctly on your non-log-scaled ETHBTC chart and you can clearly see it will be crashing down to 0.03. If BTC drops to 14k as I expect, ETH will be $420. Draw said support trendline again log-scaled and you can clearly see the current bounce bounced off the support trend line. There are numerous indications that a crash is looming in Q1 or Q2 2024. I detailed many of those indications in my detailed comments on your prior recent videos. If 15.4k was the bottom thus per the 5:3 ratio invariant discovered by Crypto Crew U., 79k will be the 2025 top. So implicitly you expect a slow, steady staircase rise from a halving low ~28 - 37k to 79k top? Is that reasonable less than a triple (perhaps only a double) from the halving low when 2020 was 17 times? And from 2016 to 2017 top it was 42 times. Even if we expect only a third of 17, that should be 5+ times from the halving low incoming which precisely agrees with the 5.13 expected by said 5:3 ratio which predicted every cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.

The correction from the peak in 2019 to the bottom in 2020 was ~71%, which if measured from the ~45k top I expect for this bull trap, will put the 2024 low at ~13k, which is roughly what my other analyses expect. I already explained to you in great detail in my comment on one your recent videos, that the global macroeconomic stress as well as the POTUS year threat of populism overcoming the coup d'etat will demand another pandemic-like result. It will be the first severe recession in Bitcoin’s existence, so a hard landing and concomitant liquidity contagion alone may be sufficient. Do not rule out a government shutdown to exacerbate the hard landing and liquidity contagion.

The congestion for months below the 32k level is not necessarily indicative of building an impenetrable base for the looming correction. That appears to be a Three Hills (valley) and a Mountain blowoff top bull trap culminating in a wave 5. It is also ostensibly an Elliot Wave ending diagonal because wave 4 corrected below the top of wave 1. Everyone and his uncle expects Bitcoin never to drop below 20k again which is retail idiocracy being lured in by the ETF moon FOMO. Look at the retail comments on your video here and that you’re encouraging this groupthink, inkblot psychology.

Also I am not a bear. I have been long since 15.4k. Your assumptions about my psychology are incorrect. I am not needy for lower-lows, I have my hodl long position.”

16 nov 2023

Nota

> > 28.8K is likely the lowest BTC will ever reach in this cycle and 20K is likely the lowest in the next cycle
>
> It will never see 20K again, especially with the ETFs.

@eddyherrera3207 you guys should never say never. Jason is incorrect. I have explained why in detail. He ignores.

> Bears are pulling out their hair, punching the wall, and smashing their keyboards right now 🤣

Somebody is gloating. Overconfident myopia before the flogging.

> if btc etf spot approved we may never see 30k again forever..

Thanks for the retail idiocracy comment.

> We hit 45k -50k then we go back down to 26k - 30k

Nope. Back down to 13k. Nobody expects the low will be retested. Everybody thinks the ETF is the new normal.

> Bitcoin is going to 100k my friend

Nope. 70k will be the triple top in 2025 and the end of the Bitcoin logistic growth curve until after the ANYONECANSPEND great reset.

> @SMoore-vj7bt haha 13k, what do you smoke😅 even with corona we didn't hit 13k😂😂😂

@MisterCro check back with me in April or May amigo. You have not been reading my detailed comments on Jason's recent videos since Nov 8. Btw, I remember retail idiocracy groupthink inkblots (on Game of Trades channel) making similar nonsense remarks to me back in Q4 2022 when I said the harmonic pattern on S&P projects 4650 for 0.886 extension, then ~4950 for 1.13 after a correction. Exactly what has and will transpire. I never heard from them again, and probably will not receive an admission of fault from you in 2024.

> @SMoore-vj7bt lol. there is zero chance of that

@JamesMullarneyIsAFraud actually about 70 - 80% probability of at least retesting 20k. You are a clueless fool following the herd.

> @SMoore-vj7bt you’re on some high shi……

@conormcgregor7707 disbelief phase of your retail investor idiocracy. I will be correct again.

> Btc does not owe another major low, ya all had a chance

​ @SlobosReality we bought that low and we will sell the ETF FOMO and buy the looming lower low, while you one-way-minded, boastful, overconfident, herding retail eat your shirts.

> > True, I do like Steve's video from crypto crew on why 50k top this cycle before the clean out dump is plausible. Especially with everyone calling for 100k+
>
> @HerAunty I'm pretty sure. Steve from crypto crew said we are going to top out about 80k

@kendagostino5699 indeed Steve's 5.3 ratio has predicted every top and it is one of the reasons that everyone here is incorrect to not expect BTC to retest the lows. I explain in detail in my trading view.

> I bet on a correction BEFORE your 45/50k guess.

@phpianocover the near-term pullback before next leg up, may only be ~34k. Too many are waiting for 31k.

> Meh. I’ll buy when it’s low, and bide my time. I don’t put anything in I can’t afford to lose, so again, meh.

@southern-samurai upvoted. Bull market does not start in earnest until after the halving. Urgency is not until then.

> $4,000

brianhallmond After the kiss-of-death 2025 triple top 70k. But make that ~$0, not 4k.

> @SMoore-vj7bt Are you talking about the WEF agenda ?

@azerguillaume7654 that is one aspect of it but certainly not the only major point I proffer. I hope you are aware that one of the goals of the C19 charade was a coup d'etat to stop the orangeutan hair because he was against the WWIII they are intentionally creating for the pretext of blaming the global debt collapse (monetary reset and Thucydides trap) on an external scapegoat. They ostensibly need to repeat a pretext for martial law 2024 POTUS steal. Pizzino does not think about issues like this. Note legacy BTC which is not BSV nor BCH but addresses that begin with 1 on the main chain (1988 Economist Magazine Phoenix rising from the ashes) does become the new global reserve currency after 2032. But the impostor Bitcoin (addresses that begin with 3 or bc1) dies first before 2032, most people losing (ignorantly donating) all their BTC to the miners to finance the ANYONECANSPEND restoration of the Nash equilibrium that the 2017 soft fork broke. I cover all the technological and game theory details in my blog.

> My instinct is because we are entering the final and hyper bullish stages of the 18 year cycle, something crypto has not seen, that the corrections will tend towards being more limited price wise, so may find support holding around 34K.

@schumanhuman actually the opposite. Volatility will go crazy as the global monetary reset is underway. That is why Bitcoin is here.

16 nov 2023

Nota

My comment:

youtu.be/0SfVJ08-RGs
(Is The Crypto Rally About To Explode? {bitcoin domination} | E.K.C.)

BTC.D as well CRYPTOCAP:BTC/(TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC) has bullish RSI divergence on the daily and weekly, but bearish RSI on the monthly. Thus looks like BTC.D dominance will make one more thrust up to a double top 54% (and the more focused latter +10%), while overextended altcoins (e.g. Solana) pullback and reaccumulate, before the final parabolic move of the alts for this bull trap heading into end of year, before the mega crash looming in Q1 or early Q2 2024. Yeah I know the looming mega crash is not at all on your radar. You think altcoins will be in a steady bull market from here until the end of this 4 year cycle, but I disagree.

16 nov 2023

Nota

AVAX one of those recommended by Alex Becker seems no better than ETH or SOL projecting maybe a pullback to 18, then top 31 to 36.





Alex also mentioned GALA, which is extremely difficult to make sense of per expected top of BTC, but perhaps 3 to 4 times gain from a ~0.20 pullback?





Alex mentioned ENJ which is much easier to analyze and might do 2.5 times again w\ pullback to ~0.26.





Amazing Cardanao (ADA) has done exactly what I diagrammed in summer 2022. Upside roughly a double.





DOGE drifted as my summer 2022 annotated speculated it might. Upside at most a double if that. Not worth the risk.

16 nov 2023

Nota

I AM SUGGESTING BUYING ETH 1870 to 1980 and GALA 0.02 to 0.021. Potential upside or price targets (no guarantees) are ~3200 and ~0.06 by perhaps January. Binance Japan is about to list Gala, which was one of Alex’s suggestions. Usual disclaimers apply.

youtu.be/8VItSMuJIeA?t=20
(Why You’re NOT TOO LATE For The Biggest Bull Run In Crypto History! | Crypto Banter)

I disagree with your opinion that the market psychology is in the Disbelief phase. Has clearly already transitioned for the crypto faithful to Hope or Optimism, bordering on Belief. We are in a mid-cycle FOMO bull trap that will end with Europhia but not among the general public as they will not being coming back until 2025. C.f. the comments on following poll for evidence.

Poll: youtube.com/channel/UCIb34uXDsfTq4PJKW0eztkA/community?lb=Ugkxg1xJaWbTXzAYqaAhw0xGh4udv2bHpwvd

16 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “shelby3, Notice that in the recent days, we are experiencing the highest volatility and a rapid change in direction at the newly established peak compared to the last three peaks, where a 20% correction followed each of them. Increased volatility and the speed of directional changes are potential signals of a significant peak in the existing trend.”

goodblackcat, resembles January and March 2023 with wider spreads, which is exactly what to expect in a parabolic end phase. Trying to call the top of a parabolic rocket is inherently difficult and you are far too early to make that call. Bitcoin broke out above the 32k trading range it had been stuck in for months, not going to stop at a measly 37.9k. Have you read carefully my last updates? Clearly the TOTAL3 is poised for a breakout to the upside. How is it possible BTC does not also bust through 40k like a hot knife through warm, soft butter? Can you not sense the palpable FOMO fever that has reignited? This move has momentum. Look at Solana. Do not seppuku yourself on the saber tip of a rocket. S&P is headed to a new ATH. Bitcoin is not going to stop below 40k before this bull trap has completed by Q1 2024. Pullbacks are possible but must be bought until the price targets I outlined in my updates are hit. Too many people in cash hoping for a 31 - 32k pullback to buy moar, c.f. the poll I cited in the updates. Thus unlikely to backtest below 33k. The market including yourself is still transitioning from a bear market to bull market psychology. As soon as it flips, that will be the top and the bear market will resume. Not before then.

From the comments:

> “shelby3, I wonder how much BTC these losers still have to sell today? Twice within 2 hours BTC returned to the cluster between $36,238-36,390, so BTC testing it as I expected, everything was well designed in advance. Someone is a great engineer here, hahaha”

> “Thank you to those who, as the last biggest fools, decided not to buy BTC over $38,000 and waited patiently to buy every dip today, bravo, I am full of admiration, you were kicked out...”

goodblackcat, you are not more powerful than the channels. If the following chart does not display, c.f. the updates.

16 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “shelby3, I wonder how much BTC these losers still have to sell today? Twice within 2 hours BTC returned to the cluster between $36,238-36,390, so BTC testing it as I expected, everything was well designed in advance. Someone is a great engineer here, hahaha”

goodblackcat, when you start gloating, that is usually when you get blown to smithereens and then after-the-fact (ex post facto) ‘backsplaining how you were really adjusting in real time. 47 of the top 75 altcoins are leading BTC, which is an early indication that altcoin fever parabolic blowoff top is looming when most of them are outperforming Bitcoin, that will then be near to the top. Not there yet.

16 nov 2023

Nota

George Gammon explains how the Western will self-immolate with the CBDCs starting by 2026 in the U.S.A. maybe as early as 2025 in other G7 nations. He also speculates a banking contagion could transpire as early as early 2024!

youtu.be/fQMk3lnuAMM
(Bank Reports Show 'Big Brother' CBDC Is Just 3-5 Years Away in the U.S. | Kitco News)

Western civilization will burn itself to scorched earth over the next several years. We will not recognize the world by 2032.

17 nov 2023

Nota

Government taking control over our vehicles under the pretext of stopping drunk drivers.

Mandates monitoring of our eyes, listening devices and will be run by AI.

Only two Democrats voted against including surprisingly AOC. Democrats really want to control others. Despicable.

youtu.be/pQVuEgeyh6A
(UPDATE - Car ‘Kill Switch’ - House Vote Fails To Remove From Bill)

At least half the population, probably more like 80%, prefer to be slaves. What we need is a way to opt-out and let them have the clusterfck they desire. Organizing an overthrow will never come to fruition.

> “telcobilly I believe that people’s right to be on the road without people DUI far outweighs the right to be DUI.”

@davecooper3238 you are a good slave. We should allow you to enslave yourself, but some of us want to opt-out of being lumped together with you. Have you ever contemplated there might be less intrusive means of removing drunk drivers from the roads? I would be in favor of laws which make culpable those who knowingly allow someone they are in the presence of to drive away drunk if they do not report it to police. Thus people will enforce the law because they do not want to be sued for damages. Suddenly nobody will want to be around anyone else who is drunk. This will pretty much end all drunken social life. Mexico will boom as a party location for drunkards.

The drunkardness problem originates from American culture, such as tailgating at college football games. Perhaps originates from British ancestry where drunkardness is rampant. America needs to apply peer pressure towards drunkedness to make it not acceptable behavior. Unfortunately a large swath of the nation loves drunkedness and even narcotics. I’ve personally transitioned to a teetotaler after I my adolescence overcoming the culture programming from my youth.

youtube.com/watch?v=pQVuEgeyh6A&lc=UgzdG7fE8bIQQ883Wax4AaABAg.9x3Sr1kKIC29xD8IWquodS
(Comments on "UPDATE - Car ‘Kill Switch’ - House Vote Fails To Remove From Bill")

> “Maybe if we all just keep complaining about how bad things are getting, they'll eventually get better!”

@ShuShuShop complaining is for losers and slaves who are incapable of making any changes and who the system will ignore and abuse because no reason not to. You actually have to do something, like for example move your wealth out of their system and onto Bitcoin. Get out of their tax system. Stop feeding the beast. Do not take out loans. Do not buy new vehicles with all the digitized dystopian crap. Become wealthy and never share any of it with the corporations which are ramming the Red, White and Blue dck up our arses.

17 nov 2023

Nota

youtube.com/watch?v=fQMk3lnuAMM&lc=Ugx6vIFTPiYt1zf2I7l4AaABAg.9xBYMXGFb2q9xDC48IYVIf
(Comments on "Bank Reports Show 'Big Brother' CBDC Is Just 3-5 Years Away in the U.S.")

> > “George Gammon is right and in many ways this has already began; most money in America is electronic; the only barrier is the fear that exists among the public and that a bad thing because we are far closer than most think.”
>
> “Not the same thing as a CBDC”

@huwhitecavebeast1972 the FedNow system enables instant payments backstopped by the Fed. That is essentially the CBDC without the liability for the creation of money directly on the Fed balance sheet bypassing the need for separate accounts at banks. But FedNow will facilitate bank runs in the looming banking contagion, and as Gammon said we will find it more convenient to just transfer via FedNow to an account at the Fed that pays us a higher interest rate. The CBDC is already here, now it will be a process of onboarding everyone to it. FedNow is the CBDC. Some claim FedNow is not the the CBDC because it is just a payment system and does not authorize the Fed to create user accounts on its balance sheet, so that last step will be required to complete the transition. Note that the Fed pays all profits back to the U.S. Treasury, thus as interest rates rise, the U.S. government will still pay 0% interest because all the Fed's proceeds will be returned back to the Treasury. That assumes though the Fed is not paying out more interest on CBDC accounts or through its discount window (as it is now making it unprofitable).

The centralization of ending cash and turning the dollar into a CBDC would probably end the global, decentralized EuroDollar market (more $100 bills outside the U.S. than inside) and thus end the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency, allowing the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix now known as Bitcoin, to take over and enslave the nation-states in austerity and fiscal discipline. We are headed into a maelstrom of totalitarianism, deprivation and pestilence.

17 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> “this guy is right on it?:} he nails it every time:) ha!ha!”

Totalsecurityplus, not every time. My success rate is better than 50/50 when I am focused. Many of my correct predictions were not separate published ideas. They are buried in the updates. For example, I predicted the NatGas crash to ~$2. I predicted from the bottom the levels that S&P and Nasdaq topped out this past summer and I have the extension correct that they will hit by over next couple of months, which I predicted back in October 2022. In 2010, I correctly predicted all the moves in silver hence. Let’s not forget back in 2016 when I predicted on Bitcointalk.org that LTC would rise from $4 to $300. Etc...

17 nov 2023

Nota

Follow-up. C.f. Martin Armstrong’s blog published today entitled, “The 80-Year Cyclical Theory v. the Economic Confidence Model.” The posited 80 year cycle aligns with the 224 year life of the United States to its peak and downfall, but it is just a coincidence. The Pi cycle is more fundamental and accurate.

17 nov 2023

Nota

Clickbait title. Vlogger thinks BTC will crash from here, never reach 40k.

youtu.be/6Me8gs6S27E
(Bitcoin hit the moon! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

> > “The funny thing is Steve. People don't realise 12.5k is still in play. This is the start of a 6 monthly wedge to 12.5k. It's hard for people to believe it. Which is fine by me. BTC needed more liquidity in the market hence why they sent it up to 38k which is the top by the way. If people think 40k is still in play. They are delusional. Next stop will be around 31.5k. Then maybe a bounce to 34k. Then sadly down to 21.5k. Then maybe another bounce. 12.5k around the end of April. Then massive bullrun 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉”
>
> “40k is a lot closer than 12.5 k so it's hardly delusional. I'm not saying anything either way. But don't be fooled by your own bias. Good luck out there”

@Beattie755 a crash is definitely coming in H1 2024. I have explained the reasons why (not just recession) in the updates on my public trading view. But how does this person know the crash is starting now and now some months from now from a higher prices? Both BTC and ETH are in a rare Three Hills (valley) and a final Mountain pattern. All indications are stonks headed up to new ATHs as the Fed has paused (which always happens historically before a recession when Fed pauses). The crash comes when the Fed is forced to start cutting rates. There is a banking contagion and commercial real estate collapse looming but meanwhile markets will moon.

17 nov 2023

Nota

Follow-up on my prior update:

> “Don't you think we could cross the blue ring first to have small pump and after that cross the orange line and have major dump?”

@youtube-classified I raised that issue on his prior video and he did not respond. I noticed in the past after pumping when crossing the blue ring from below instead of from the side, that price fell back down to test the blue ring as resistance at a lower price than the said initial cross. Also an orange ring has never been crossed from above. What if price crossed the orange from above after pumping from an initial blue cross, then traced down the outside (right side) of the blue Fib circle all the way down to a new lower low?

17 nov 2023

Nota

Thanks to Sheldon @ Crypto Banter, ETC (Ethereum Classic) looks to be headed to possibly 43 (ETCBTC indicates BTC possibly to ~46). That is the potential upside of SOL without the crazy risk of a massive pullback. Allmost has the upside of GALA. Unfortunately GALA has not pulled back and continued up.

17 nov 2023

Nota

APE(coin) looks like 3.5 to ~5 times potential gain. Has bullish RSI divergences and is backtesting its breakout. Opportune time to accumulate it? Do not bet the farm on this one though!

17 nov 2023

Nota

Tone Vays responded to me and stated he would not call for 6k if BTC drops to 14k in early 2024, because he said it would be too close to the halving to be more bearish. Note he and I disagreed about why small caps are underperforming. He is reacting to me in the live chat.

youtu.be/wuoFMjwAFjw
(Huge Volatility with SEC vs Bitcoin ETF News)

17 nov 2023

Nota

I keep hearing people regurgitating Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U. YT channel) trope about the market has built a lot of structure by slowly grinding up, unlike in 2019 in which the price moved too quickly to 13.9k. And they take this as some gospel or evidence that the price will not crash back down to a lower low. This a syllogistic logical fallacy or a form of apophenia that attempts to assign causation to features which may be present among other outcomes. A more sophisticated person entertains all of the facts of the situation and doesn’t try to form causal conclusions based on myopic cherry picking of preferred datums. They should read the How to Piss Me Off Guide.

Why doesn’t anyone else notice the following?

1. For every bear market bottom, the second crash below the 200 WMA is always deeper than the prior one within the same cycle. Thus clearly another deeper move below the 200 WMA is looming before the bottom.

2. Note my textual annotations on the following chart. Note ending diagonals in 2018 and currently are followed by massive, intense moves in the other direction. Also note that the 5 waves for the prior bull market were a terminating wave because of wave 2 retraced more than 67% of wave 1. A TERMINATING WAVE MEANS THE BITCOIN BULL MARKET SINCE ITS INCEPTION IS FINISHED. Thus Bitcoin will not make a new ATH ever again until the entire bull run from its inception has been reset. Per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio theory which predicts every bull market top for Bitcoin, the next top can only be ~413% above the bottom. If Bitcoin bottoms at 13.6k in 2024 as I expect, then it will top at ~70k and will not make a new ATH.

17 nov 2023

Nota

I have leaned towards Bitcoin weakening in each cycle and much weaker per the amount of time it spent below the 200 MA unlike prior cycles. Also Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U., no affiliation of mine) 5.3 ratio hypothesis which has predicted every bull market price top, says the next top in 2025 can not exceed ~5.13 times the bottom (i.e. +413%). Thus if 15.4k was the bottom, then top in 2025 will be ~79k. Yet if Bitcoin were to decline to a lower-low ~13k, the top would be projected ~70k, which would be a doomsday triple top.

Expounding on my bearish RSI divergence point (and other points arguing for why another contagion may be forming of which I did not even go into detail about how much the economies outside the U.S. are weakening which is exactly what was happening in 2019 as well at least in W. Europe) from my said prior comments, note the different Elliot Wave structure of the bounce from the bottom in 2018 compared to 2022. The significant rally from 3.1k to 13.9k in 2019 was wave 1 of a bullish 5 wave structure that completed with the 2021 top. Thus the corrective wave 2 for the C19 contagion was not a lower-low. Whereas, coming off the prospective 15.4k low, there is a bull trap 5 wave structure forming which will complete in next couple of months or less. Thus this is a corrective wave B or X of an A-B-C aka W-X-Y bear market correction from the ATH. Thus Bitcoin is likely to make a lower-low in H1 2024.

17 nov 2023

Nota

Readers have an incorrect model of reality. Bitcoin the new asset is here to enslave you, not to help you. And it will not be lifted to $ 1million until first destroying the impostor Bitcoin taking the Bitcoin price to ~$0, which you currently incorrectly think is Bitcoin and here to save you. The reality is the Bitcoin ETF is all about enslaving you. Educate yourself. Dig into the links, especially the first one which is my blog.

17 nov 2023

Nota

If 15.4k was the bottom thus per the 5.3 ratio invariant discovered by Crypto Crew U., 79k will be the 2025 top. So implicitly you expect a slow, steady staircase rise from a halving low ~28 - 37k to 79k top? Is that reasonable less than a triple (perhaps only a double) from the halving low when 2020 was 17 times? And from 2016 to 2017 top it was 42 times. Even if we expect only a third of 17, that should be 5+ times from the halving low incoming which precisely agrees with the 5.13 (+413%) expected by said 5.3 ratio which predicted every cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.

The correction from the peak in 2019 to the bottom in 2020 was ~71%, which if measured from the ~45k top I expect for this bull trap, will put the 2024 low at ~13k, which is roughly what my other analyses expect. I already explained to you in great detail in my comment on one your recent videos, that the global macroeconomic stress as well as the POTUS year threat of populism overcoming the coup d'etat will demand another pandemic-like result. It will be the first severe recession in Bitcoin’s existence, so a hard landing and concomitant liquidity contagion alone may be sufficient. Do not rule out a government shutdown to exacerbate the hard landing and liquidity contagion.

The congestion for months below the 32k level is not necessarily indicative of building an impenetrable base for the looming correction. That appears to be a Three Hills (valley) and a Mountain blowoff top bull trap culminating in a wave 5. It is also ostensibly an Elliot Wave ending diagonal because wave 4 corrected below the top of wave 1. Everyone and his uncle expects Bitcoin never to drop below 20k again which is retail idiocracy being lured in by the ETF moon FOMO.

19 nov 2023

Nota

Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/18/23 5:09 AM}
My best guess is that this rally needs a backtest ~33 - 34k to the blue support line on my chart before possibly one more upthrust to ~42 - 43k to form the final bearish divergence. Although I guess possible, I doubt ~38k was the final top, as other indications are this bull phase will continue a month or two more to run up including perhaps a pullback.



Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/18/23 8:25 AM}
Studying ETH very meticulously. Is it a bearish rising wedge with 2300 top or a bullish ascending triangle with upside targets from 2600 to the Bat harmonic 3200?

If ETH remains above ~1750, bullish RSI divergence holds on the daily. Monthly RSI also has bullish RSI divergence. Weekly had it but it is in limbo until break out above ~2135.

The overhead resistance for BTC if it breaks above 38k after a pullback into 33 - 34k range, is at most ~44.6k by January. Seeing that ETHBTC could decline to 0.052 and form bullish RSI divergence with upside of 0.058 at least, if not 0.0625 or possibly 0.0709, thus all potential targets are in play from 2300 to 3200.

My guess ETH pulls back to mid-1800s, then rockets to at least 2300 probably 2600 by late December. Whether it continues to the 3200 Bat harmonic target, I do not know, but note the bearish Shark projection to just below 600 in 2024, can be fulfilled as a continuation W-X-Y projection either from 2300 or 3200.



Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/18/23 8:48 AM}
TOTAL3 - CRYPTOCAP:USDT - CRYPTOCAP:USDC (i.e. altcoins not including BTC, ETH & stablecoins) does not have a prominent potential bearish wedge seen on the ETHUSD chart.

Thus this leads me to believe that after a potential ~10% further pull back to 267B, a further rally to 429B. The 35% higher level off the recent highs doesn’t necessarily mean that the sum of all altcoins will only rise +35% more, because there can be rotation out of tokens that moon first, to shitcorns that moon last.

Note the 72 - 76% correction from the bull trap rally in 2019, will if it repeats, take the level down to the next lower level of support. That will surely be panic and blood in the streets in 2024, before the bull market resumes.



Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/18/23 9:09 AM}
Solana already hit its target and thus might not make new high. Although looks to me it may pull back to ~45, then rocket to 120, at which point it will have massive bearish RSI divergence on the monthly! Note SOL invalidated the potential bearish, rising wedge it had so perhaps we should expect ETH to do so also on the next leg up.



Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/18/23 9:29 AM}
SOLBTC plausibly concurs. Already hit the first target. After pullback to 0.00135 with BTC ~33.5k and SOL ~45, next target is most likely 0.029 which could correspond to BTC ~42k and SOL ~120.



Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {11/19/23 6:43 AM}
BTC appears poised to make another attempt at 38k.

GALA and ETC could be ready to break out.

ETH probably not to break out just yet. ETHBTC has not yet reset bullish RSI on larger time frames.

My hypothesis is another failed attempt to make a significant new high, then most crypto still has another leg down. But some altcoins may make breakouts and merely retest resistance as new support on the new down leg.

I could be wrong of course. Just hedging my bets a little now, by nibbling on some of these.

19 nov 2023

Nota

The 80% down has not completed yet for the current bear market. We are not in the bull market yet. Jason Pizzino is a sleepwalking cheerleader (with pompoms) leading you to complacency.

This entire altcoin pump is fake! User and investor adoption has continued to plummet. The altcoin bear market is not over folks!

youtu.be/oRR11bYspPE
(The Altcoin Rally Is Fake | My Biggest Altcoin Warning Yet... | DataDash)

Of course the insiders who are holding bags from the FTX blowup are pumping the markets to dump on retail before the bear market continues with the expiration of the BTFP on March 11 and the banking collapse that will allow the Fed to pivot. Wash, rinse, repeat. Retail never learns.

====

Here is the follow-up from George Gammon where he has the possibility of the expiration of the BTFP on March 11, could lead to a banking contagion and be the catalyst for the crash I am expecting.

youtu.be/92i2M_1p7v4
(Banking Sector Collapse Coming, Why It Could Happen in March – George Gammon)

====

Storm clouds accumulating into a looming hurricane in the global economy:

youtu.be/8gFhm7_VQ2k
(Oil Is Sending A Warning Message To The Stock Market | Mott Capital Mgmt)

====

Why is Solana rallying like crazy?

Ron Walker has a plausible explanation. He argues that FTX et al, needed to pump their bags so they could liquidate them on the retail investor fools. Also he points out that Bitcoin is rising on declining volume.

The dumb retail investors always believe the hopium. And we have sleepwalking cheerleader Jason Pizzino assuring them that crypto can never crash anew.

youtu.be/BVLXhQwQlpc?t=633
(The Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Has Begun - BTC To Test of 32K Soon - BULL TRAP)

Ron argues the Wycoff distribution is still in play even if pullback followed by a higher high. He thinks the moves in Bitcoin are exaggerated, thus allowing for slightly more extreme than textbook Wycoff.

youtu.be/Larttvdrbh4?t=88
(Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Coming - BTC BULL TRAP Being Set)

====

Let’s contemplate other Elliot Wave counts which might invalidate the thesis of the ending diagonal. The following is invalid because wave 1 is the largest wave which can not be the case.



The following is proposed in the following video and I corrected him. Alternatively he considers the bearish case which is the same as what I expect.



youtu.be/7uaRYmvlYqA
(BITCOIN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS)

Your B is higher than your 1. That not allowed. Thus it can only be the bearish case W-X-Y currently in the A-B-C bull trap wave X. Any attempt at labeling a 5 wave count currently is an ending diagonal, which is bearish. Also prior bull cycle wave 2 corrected more than 67% of wave 1, which makes it a terminal wave. That means this bear market will be much worse than prior ones. And no new ATH will be reached in this next bull market. You like everyone else thinks the C19 contagion will not repeat in 2024, but in fact the macroeconomic and orangeutan hair threat (i.e. political) conditions are nearly the same. And do not forget the BTFP (aka buy the f-ing pivot) banking collapse prevention expires March 11.

19 nov 2023

Nota

Took short-term profits from bullish position entered earlier today (c.f. updates). Might reenter on pullback.

====

My best guess is that this rally needs a backtest ~33 - 34k to the blue support line on my chart before possibly one more upthrust to ~42 - 43k to form the final bearish divergence. Although I guess possible, I doubt ~38k was the final top, as other indications are this bull phase will continue a month or two more to run up including perhaps a pullback.



====

Jason Pizzino highlighted my comment and specifically said he does not think Bitcoin can go to my prediction of 14k. He implied I am loony.

youtu.be/Kw3APTaYrlY?t=529 ← click for his screen capture of my comment on his prior video

Jason didn’t address any of the detailed points I made in comments on his recent videos. He is ostensibly oblivious to for example the Shark harmonic pattern pointing to an Ethereum crash in price after this pump to the 3200 Bat harmonic target. I purchased ETH December calls this past summer expecting the Bat rally, which have seen 10 times gain already! Jason is ostensibly oblivious to the Terminal Wave and Ending Diagonals on the Elliot Wave structure of Bitcoin.

In 2022, I employed harmonic pattern theory to PUBLICLY (on TradingView) predict NatGas would crash to $2, that the S&P would rally to 4650 (the 0.886 target), pullback (as it did this summer) and then rally anew to ~4950 (the 1.13 target) which is underway.

From the comments:

ivanguzman102, I did predict the future numerous times.

====

To reiterate that Bitcoin will enslave the 99%. Per the explanation I aforelinked in my blog, the SegWit, Lightning Networks, scaling crap will be destroyed and that impostor Bitcoin will go to ~0. The 1 MiB block limited legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes after the WWIII underway as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix. Bitcoin transaction fees will be affordable only to large transaction values, thus used only by the wealth. Bitcoin is not long, for us. We were deceived into supporting our future enslavement.

====

youtube.com/watch?v=rIpPwfMLE-Q&lc=UgwMVsfgwr5fOe9tvi14AaABAg.9vELcD8pOUh9xIxJXvYc_I
(Comments on "How Mexico Will Save The West")

> “@SMoore-vj7bt I'm not Mexican nor am I diminishing regular Americans. It's just obvious that America doesn't have a long term plan for dealing with most of the world becoming industrialized. American politicians are senile and out of touch.”

@jay1jayf the holistic picture is actually enslavement of the entire world. The political elite of the US Empire are just pawns of the real power behind the curtain. Industrialization does not mean freedom. It means trading freedom for trinkets. Just as the indigenous were lured into trading their land for mirror or bottle of liquor. The deck of cards is being shuffled but the House remains in control of the odds of winning. Mexico is a new frontier to some extent, because of low regulations. But the tax man cometh. Within a few decades or less the enslavement in the West will be universal all over the world. That is what the rise of multipolarism (and the deflationary, dystopian Bitcoin to displace the USD) is really about. When you ponder who created Bitcoin just ask yourself who benefits from enslaving the world in a unit of account that is a fixed supply and can be monopolized by the 1%.

====

From the comments.

cornvutthole, what part of the first link I put in the prior comment are you ostensibly not capable of clicking, reading and comprehending? Perhaps if you are technologically illiterate and/or average IQ, then what is written there (by myself, i.e. I am the author of the linked blog) may make no sense to you?

It is inarguable that the impostor Bitcoin (which you all ERRONEOUSLY think is the official Bitcoin) is going to ~$0, when the 13+ million Bitcoin ANYONECANSPEND booty is donated to the miners (no need to even hack the private keys) by the fact that you willfully and ignorantly stored your Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 3 or bc1, instead of Satoshi’s legacy addresses that begin with 1. And BSV and BCH have nothing to do with this. I am not referring to any of scammer Craig “Faketoshi” Wright’s nonsense/shenanigans. The 2017 soft fork broke the Nash Equilibrium by creating a huge booty. The only way to fix the equilibrium is for the miners to take it and force the hard fork. After which the impostor will go to $0, because of the economic asymmetry of the airdrop, i.e. everyone hodling legacy Bitcoin will receive both airdrops, whereas the those not will donate their legacy airdrop to the miners AND HAVE A HUGE TAXABLE CAPITAL GAIN THEY CAN NOT PAY thus wrecking their lives and burning their fingertips up to their armpits for touching impostor Bitcorn.

This restoration event (aka “attack”) must occur before Bitcoin can rise as the new world reserve currency, i.e. the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix.

20 nov 2023

Nota

It was a hidden secret code pattern that I discovered (and published in my idea update) on September 3 that enabled me to pinpoint a plausible bottom price ~14k for Bitcoin. I wrote:

Based on these patterns, I think BTC will flash crash only to ~14k in 2024. Will only be down there for a very short period and quickly back above 21k again. Thus per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 rule, looks like the H2 2025 top will only ~71k.



====

Expounding on my two comment posts in the comments section reflecting on my historical Tradingview record being incorrectly understood, I will write my thought progression as best as I can recall off the top of my head without going back into all my history meticulously to bolster my recollection.

I had not discovered Ron Walker’s YT channel (currently aka The Doctor of Dump & Pump, formerly The Crypto Trader) near the Sep/Oct 2021 top in the market. Thus I was all alone in my belief that Bitcoin had topped. I was up against intense FOMO for the $100+k thesis even in my own discussion circle. Couple this being back and forth between Mexico and the USA, not ultimately settling into an apartment in Arizona until Jan 2022, I was very distracted and disorganized at the 2021 top.

After the drop below 20k, I noticed some short-term bullish divergence on the CME that was not on spot (or maybe it was vice versa) and I noticed Gareth Soloway had started to nibble and soften is expectation of 13k, allowing for the possibility of an interim bounce to maybe 32k. Ron Walker continued to call for 9 to 12k. Right before the drop to 15.4k, I started to entertain the notion of a Wycoff accumulation and this was before I discovered Jason Pizzino who was spouting the same hypothesis. When the price hit 16k and bounced, I called the bottom. Then surprisingly it dropped again to 15.4k and I knew this was the final spring on the Wycoff accumulation, I actually talked someone out of despair in my private Telegram group. He has since held his position all the way up.

Ron Walker finally allowed for a bounce from the 15.4k level but did not see the Wycoff accumulation. And thus he as expecting only a bull trap dead cat bounce to ~20k to be rejected and decline to his 9 to 12k targets. All the way up, he kept having correct short-term buy and sell calls, but he was always bearish overall. Every bull move higher was counter to his stated expectations until the price broke above 32k, he started to allow for 40k.

I had found OPTICALARTdotCOM when the Bitcoin price was still around or above the $30+k level and he like Gareth were calling for 13k. Note he was similar to Ron Walker always expecting the next leg down that I am expecting now, and expecting that all way from the 15.4k level at every attempt to thrust over 32k. But to his credit, he did have a Fib circle ring that enabled him to go long at exactly 15.4k as it crossed his circle which was a bullish pump signal for him. But he never expected the price to rally as much as it did.

Whereas, around Oct/Nov 2022, I found harmonic patterns (Shark and Bat) which enabled me to publicly predict (in updates on my Year from Hell idea) 4650, correction, then 4950 for S&P (and commensurately also for the Nasdaq) as well as a crash to $2 for NatGas I predicted earlier in 2022, and the 2100 followed by 2600 to 3200 level for Ethereum. So this is why I was buying Dec 29 2100 strike ETH calls in Sep/Oct 2023 for ~$10 and selling them recently for ~$100.

I had been following Game of Trades on YT who had pointed that historically the stock market rallies to an ATH after the Fed pauses, then crashes when it pivots (reduces Fed Fund rates). He was expecting that pause in June 2022, so eventually he got weary waiting for it and turned very bearish. I protested and many of his followers thought I was loony to call for 4650 at the Oct/Nov 2022 lows.

As I tied in all the developing factors into my analysis of the situation, I realized that Ron Walker and OPTICALARTdotCOM bearish thesis for another leg down, is probably correct. And so now I join them, but only after they were mostly wrong since the 15.4k bottom, although they were both correct from the 66k top to the 20k level at least.

20 nov 2023

Nota

Ah another corroborating datum that my expectation is plausible.

youtu.be/nAvgnCtFevI
(WARNING: EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT 250K BITCOIN – THIS WILL HAPPEN INSTEAD (BE READY) | Crypto Crew U.)

​ CryptoCrewUniversity Steve (Courtney) you just validated what I have been posting on my Trading view the past couple of days that the bottom will be ~14k (just before the halving again), because when you apply the 70k top predicted by this new variant of 5.3 to your prior 5.3 variant, it indicates the actual low will be just below 14k. Also contemplate the doomsday implications of the looming triple top. I informed you in email last year this will likely be the destruction of the impostor 2017 softfork Bitcoin crashing it to near 0 in 2026 before the legacy protocol recovers.

====

From the comments:

> “I think it's too early to say what will happen in 2025 while we're still in 2023. Anything can happen by that time but most likely scenario that there will be new ATH on BTC”

@fastprofittrader, do you still have that same opinion if you assimilate all my corroborating details from the numerous updates on my idea and all my replies in the comments section? I think I have presented a very strong case as to why there can not be a higher high in 2025. We can pinpoint that the top will be in H2 2025, not H1 based on the timing of Bitcoin’s repeating (i.e. periodic) 4 cycle. Couple that with Steve Courtney’s discovery of a 5.3 ratio rule which dictates the top of each subsequent bull market based on a ratio of the prior top and bottom. Thus per his calculation, the current bull market CAN NOT exceed +413% of the bottom. If 15.4k was the bottom, then 79k would be the top in H2 2025.

But based on my other numerous analyses, 15.4k may not be the final bottom, which instead may be ~14k (perhaps 13.6k to be more exact), which thus pegs the looming top to be only ~70k, thus a doomsday triple top, which might be the signal that the impostor Bitcoin may decline to ~$0 in during the horrific bear market coming from 2026 to 2028, wherein the dollar will become incredibly strong because of WWIII with China, Iran, Russia.

21 nov 2023

Nota

Ah another indicator of the posited looming further leg down and thus that crypto is still in a bear market after this bull trap rally.

youtu.be/1PLv4gUm0cM?t=371
(Bitcoin & Altcoin Price Analysis | The Critical Levels You Need To Watch | DataDash)

====

Liquidity crisis on tap for March/April. How can people not see that a liquidity crisis is already preprogrammed into the system for that future date?

youtu.be/GgK4566_xRI
(Reverse Repo is Crashing | Heresy Financial)

Coincidentally I had been detecting indications in the crypto charts of looming crash in the markets H1 2024. Also the Fed’s BTFP expires March 11. It’s as if those in control are planning on creating a crisis.

====

From the comments:

> “In which case it turns into a leading diagonal blah blah.”

@ParabolicPanic, not which turns into. I am actually incorrect to posit that it could be an ending diagonal, because per Elliot Wave theory ending diagonals can only occur in the ending C or 5th wave, which is obviously not that case currently. The current wave structure is either the 1st motive wave (thus a leading diagonal) or the second (aka X) corrective wave. I did posit that the current wave structure coming off the 15.4k bottom is either an A-B-C corrective structure or I mentioned it could be an ending diagonal. I should have stated or it could be a leading diagonal. But on further study as I just stated, it can not be an ending diagonal. Thus either this is a bullish leading diagonal for wave 1 of a bullish 5 waves to come, or as I believe it is a corrective A-B-C of an overall larger W-X-Y correction from the 2021 top.

However for it to be a leading diagonal, then small wave 5 underway (not the posited future, larger wave 5) must not be larger than wave 3. Given that small wave 5 already appears to be larger than its small wave 3 and if the Three Hills (, valley) and a Mountain pattern which appears to be underway is fulfilled heading into Dec/Jan, then wave 5 will extend and be much larger than the posited wave 3. Thus a corrective (i.e. not motive) A-B-C would be the only correct Elliot Wave interpretation.

Your “blah, blah” can be lazy self-deception. Corroborating factors and evidence should be studied to support or invalidate a hypothesis. Your leading diagonal hypothesis in invalidated by other facts, or at least the presumption that wave 2 could not be very deep perhaps to 18k which is a possibility I am also allowing for (although the updated as of yesterday 5.3 ratio theory seems to be invalidating that possibility yet we will see). Ostensibly you have not even read all the analysis. Apparently you decided that the page was not worth your time about a paragraph or two into it. This is a problem and why humans are so easily deceived. Most people are lazy and apathetic, and thusly apply heuristics so they can minimize the effort they expend. Often heuristics fail.

====

youtu.be/0Fg30bxX9BA
(Buying Bitcoin Now Will Not Make Your Descendants Rich | Heresy Financial)

Unfortunately pessimistically, this video’s optimism is wrong on two levels. First, Bitcoin will never be the currency (as in for payments), because the 2017 scaling softfork broke the Nash equilibrium and will be destroyed. Bitcoin will only be the global reserve currency used by the very wealthy because of the very high transaction fees given the immutable 1 MiB block size limitation in the legacy protocol. Any attempt to change the protocol will fail due to the economic asymmetry of airdrops (even softforks that become hard fcks when the Nash equilibrium is restored). Bitcoin is moving us to a two-tier monetary system, where the plebs will be forced onto to dystopian, cashless 666 central bank digital currencies and the central banks will hold Bitcoin on their balance shits.

Secondly, the economic mobility of meritocracy does not obviate the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources. Unfortunately Bitcoin replacing the dollar will result in dystopia because unlike gold, the dominant empire will not be able to debase the unit-of-account that the entire world relies on. Thus massive deflation and widespread pestilence because most people are incapable of self-reliance, self-discipline, long time preference, etc.. This means that the 1% will become the 0.1%, then the 0.01% and ultimately all the wealth of the world concentrated on the proverbial, metaphorical Biblical Seven Hills. Armageddon follows in Biblical prophesy. The reason for the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources is not just regulatory capture. It runs the gamut of ways that economies-of-scale and selection-of-the-fittest-most-ruthless can capture power vacuums because we do not exist in your naive, idealistic implicit assumption of a milieu of perfect disorder.

23 nov 2023

Nota

Anyone who doubts my prediction for ETH to rally (originally 2600 to 3200, but possibly only 2300 to 2400) before crashing to 600 should watch this. Why 600? Because the bearish harmonic points there and this bounce off the bottom is wave X of a W-X-Y bear market. The bull market has not started yet. Prepare to be shocked Steve.

youtu.be/xjfWN4WbSp8?t=227 ← click for chart
(WARNING: IS ETH ABOUT TO CRASH!? HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW)

​ CryptoCrewUniversity Steve notice the distance from 9 to 10, should equal from 11 to 12. Thus ETH may go higher before crashing. My thesis since Oct 2022 is playing out as I predicted, except lower expectations for this rally based on your video. Also notice previously from 11 to green to 12 was split into two major moves the second slightly more than first, which concurs with ~2300 to 2350. This 4 year cycle is MUCH weaker than any prior. Will end with a triple top 70k and 2026 Bitcoin will go to 0 as I warned you in 2022.

23 nov 2023

Nota

Prices I expect for a possible top.

BTC 40 - 41k
ETH 2300
ENJ 0.38
ETC 23 - 24
SOL ~69 (already topped)
GALA 0.0285 - 0.0345 (probably 0.03 - 0.033)
APE 1.75 - 2.15 (but most likely 1.75 - 1.80)

Oh crap, ETCUSD has very similar pattern as BTCUSD did in 2018, before the final drop from 6k to 3k. Below $7 incoming after this final bull trap bounce.

Many crypto FOMOium fools are about to get REKTD.

24 nov 2023

Nota

From the comments:

> The $38,000-41,000 zone is Death Valley for BTC.
>
> BTC has not found enough organic buyers since the opening price (0:00 UTC: $37,300). After aggressive action by the binance operator, there were no organic purchases above $38,000 despite three attempts for an hour.

> A single trader on Binance pushes the BTC price above $38,000.
>
> Fully rigged BTC price market at this point. The price action for the last hours is again controlled by a single participant from Binance. There has been a lot of speculation on this subject for several hours now. Taking a long position on the binance while squeezing short positions on the bybit perps.
>
> Let no one even try to suggest that I am unaware that such manipulations are normal in the markets.
>
> Not in such proportions and with such determination and not in context with what happened with binance this week. The situation is obvious. I am still adding to a short position. Stop order is reset. If this operator manages to get the BTC price over $39,000, I will sell even more. I am sure that market participants like me will regulate this sick situation.
>
> I have nothing against BTC, I am a long-term BULL myself. Always willing to buy after large declines and when the right momentum appears.

goodblackcat, historically massive option market positions can and I quote, “send Bitcoin up 300% and down 75% in a single day.”

Overall the crypto charts look horrible, with bearish RSI divergences on all timeframes (as does the S&P stonks which fell out of a bearish rising wedge but could make on more drive to a high to test the bottom of the wedge it fell out of), except nearly all crypto USD(T) pairs have bullish RSI diverge on the 3d chart. Also several of the altcoins have a bull flag such as ETCUSD. Thus the reason for the topping prices I posted last night to the idea update. So far only BTC and ETH have moved strongly enough towards a new drive to a high, but I am thinking the rest of the altcoins will follow today or so? Also looks to me ETH is going to break out towards 2300?

Indeed the smart money is grabbing the liquidity of the short-term leveraged shorts first, before they will take this down hard for next few months. I can not rule out a significant pullback and then one final drive to a high perhaps in January? But for sure by March crypto will have crashed. The crypto markets are dead. This ETF hopium will not lift crypto out of the doldrums of stagflation and the pre-halving crypto winter. Too many newbies and naive forgot that the crypto bull market in the 4 year cycle does not start until after the halving.

24 nov 2023

Nota

youtu.be/abxE0-Dqlvg
(The December Breakout Is Real For Ethereum)

Krown you about to get REKTD with your bull market nonsense. That is a bearish rising wedge, not an ascending triangle.

youtu.be/-MMmGKtsrCk
(The #1 Altcoin Chart No One Is Watching | The 'EXBS Index' | DataDash)

That is a bearish rising wedge (not a bullish ascending triangle as you and many others incorrectly annotate it) on the weekly chart, which is also a 5 wave leading diagonal. Thus it must be wave 1 of a 5 wave bullish structure (can not be an ending diagonal). Thus wave 2 incoming could nearly retest the lows (not a lower-low!) before the halving thus before the bull market ensues in earnest. I charted this on my public trading view.

16:00 You slaughtered the inane narrative that the Bitcoin ETFs can drive new ATH.



====

youtu.be/17oGYIQlBbU
(Why This Bitcoin Move Will Shock Everyone in 2024 | Robert Prechter)

If Elliot Wave specialist Prechter is correct, then his 3 (as you illustrated it) could the end of the first wave down of a expanded flat 3 wave correction. I would have Bitcoin coming back up to a triple top ~70k by H2 2025 for the 2nd wave of the correction, then down into the abyss ~0 for the final third wave by May 2026. From there the Bitcoin market would reset. Which entirely fits with my thesis that the impostor Bitcoin (the 2017 softfork which broke the Nash equilibrium creating 13+ million tokens which are ANYONE CAN SPEND) will be destroyed. All the details are on my public trading view. As Prechter points out that the final "c" wave of an expanded flat are waterfall collapses, very fast and devastating. Well I know exactly what could cause such a dramatic face ripping selloff. The legacy protocol miners will take the 13+ million tokens as donations, no need to even have the private keys because they are ANYONE CAN SPEND.

What I find even more interesting is that the legacy protocol Bitcoin (the one Satoshi created, not the current impostor) continues to coexist with the softfork (they will hard fork off from each other when the tokens are taken as donations) can rise as the 1988 Economist Magazine's cover story Phoenix from the ashes of the looming WWIII, as the new world reserve currency in the multipolar new world order that will replace the death of the dollar in said Thucydides trap underway (after a massive crash upwards of the dollar in the final EuroDollar driven liquidity crisis). The legacy as a global reserve currency used only by the wealthy and central banks, will not need transaction scaling that Prechter laments. IOW, Satoshi was not designing a payment system, but rather the new global order. And by the way, the design of Bitcoin was anonymously publicly leaked in 1998 on the 10 year anniversary of its 1988 announcement, then launched 10 years later, then public stampede 10 years later. Thus 2028 it rises. I would be grateful if you would forward my comments to Prechter and his son Elliot.

18 dic 2023

Nota

From the comments:

goodblackcat, the ~39.3k level is the support trendline from the grindingly slow staircase climb from Oct 24 through Nov 27. Quite reasonable to drop to that level then rally fiercely to ~47 to 48k in the first week of January if the ETF is approved. And I will be selling that with both fists!

Look out below after that. Timberrrr…

Nobody believes Bitcoin can make new lows!

Have you viewed my latest published idea? Take note of the short-term prediction in the updates of that long-term DJIA prediction.

6 ene 2024

Nota

From the comments:

goodblackcat, I am minimizing my use of this site now because I suppose I am near to being banned anyway. I will still reply from time-to-time if I see a notification. I maintain what I been saying for weeks, that a government shutdown starting on January 19 will crash the markets. The first low will be in March, final low in May. Then the rally into 2025 which will be the final high for Bitcoin as we knew it. Bitcoin will test near $0 in 2026 as the ANYONECANSPEND attack is looming. If not in 2026, then maybe ~2028. The 2025 high for Bitcoin will not be more than ~79k. If Bitcoin makes a lower low in 2024 then the 2025 high will be a triple top ~70k.

Looks like one final push to $46 - 49k next week, then Bitcoin will start crashing.

19 ene 2024

Nota

Looks like after any bounce, BTC is very likely to decline to $31 - 34k, if not maybe 28k, over the coming months before resuming the bull market into 2025 to hit Armstrong’s uptrend line (that marked 49.6k as the top) again ~79k by 2025 as that uptrend line is rising. The only way to go lower than that this Spring would be an egregious blackswan contagion.

Originally I was thinking there would be a repeating blackswan event from 2020 because another election year where they need to stop Trump, i.e. that in an election year the “unlikely event that the government pulls a snake out of its ass again” (as Alex Becker said in recently cited video). However, they can not get away with that sort deception-pretext again. Instead they have clearly signaled they must overtly strip Trump of his rights with ”kangaroo courts” lawfare or whatever it requires. The recent admission of the MSM that Trump is trouncing everyone, is I think a calculated move to call for more radicalism in form of radical-desperation in their ranks— i.e. that the faithful will tolerate any burning-at-the-stake required to purge the evil witch Trump. Anglo-Saxon Protestants/Puritans due to our Nietzschean ressentiment are really into burning-at-the-stake.

youtu.be/OJfjyfcDBO8?t=632
(MAJOR WARNING To Bitcoin & Crypto Investors In 2024 | E.K.C.)

13 feb 2024

Nota

Posited bullish T/A patterns for ETH seem to belie the Elliot Wave count. Appear to be completing 5 waves now at (non-log scaled) 0.5 (~$2853) Fib retracement.

Looks to be either a 9 wave Extension or a Zigzag in progress, potentially topping in H1 2025 at the 0.786 ($3985) after which the Shark harmonic pattern projects below $0 into 2026!

Bearish RSI divergence on monthly, weekly, daily. Could pullback below 2k first below heading further up. But this interpretation doesn’t support a Hugh Hendry’s massive deflationary crash (due to sudden Chinese currency devaluation) until H2 2025, unless wave B is completing prematurely now? Is Fed likely to ease this summer to keep this bull market going and Chinese can stave off collapse?

ETF seems unlikely (c.f. also) or lacking demand. Gensler still thinks ETH is a security.



===============

Nothing has changed on my BTC chart since I labeled this a couple of months ago. BTC is rallying to ~$ 52k (maybe at most 58k based on the 3 month chart but I doubt it). Then it will correct to $32 - 34k. Then bull market continues.

Note the EW count can either be as labeled, or 2021 was the end of wave 5 since Bitcoin’s inception and an Expanded Flat A-B-C correction. Either way, 2026 will send Bitcoin crashing back to 13.9k at least.

As mentioned numerous times, the ~79k top in 2025 is predicted by Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio hypothesis which has correctly predicted the BTC top of every 4 year cycle.

13 feb 2024

Nota

[ Album ]
youtu.be/Xaj2uo28ZC0
(Bitcoin BTC Seems UNSTOPPABLE! - Is This Pump A MAJOR TRAP? | Wolves of Crypto)

6:10 the “horizontal yellow line” is not the dead cat bounce. Go look at it carefully on the weekly chart. The only level that is consistent has been the top of the solid candles on the 3 monthly chart, which for this cycle is 58k. The top could be anywhere below 58k (most likely ~$52-53k) and I agree with your thesis that a monthly close below $49 - 50k will signal the usual correction incoming around the halving (which is what I also expect).

15 feb 2024

Nota

youtu.be/HsUVCcTDf1E
(Bitcoin Buyers: You Have 60 Days Left to Change Your Life FOREVER!! | Chico Crypto “the most trustless name in crypto”)

Given that the ratio between the 4 year bull cycle top and the price at the halving has historically been shrinking with diminishing returns by a factor of 3.3 and 3.75—and given that Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio hypothesis (also covered on Alessio Rastani’s February 23, 2023 episode), which has precisely predicted the said top price given the preceding crypto winter bottom is predicting 79k for the 2025 top, the price at the April 2024 halving must be between 21 - 33k.

Also the current trajectories of the MAs on the Pi Cycle Top indicator which has predicted every said top are aligned such that Bitcoin must decline significantly below 36k if the 79k top will be delayed as normal until Q2 to Q4 2025.

Also Bitcoin has crashed ~40+% just before or after every halving.

=========

How much evidence do we need to realize why every person either has to be a callous diabolical elite, else a dumb ass sheep? I choose the former. Even King Solomon did eventually realize it was futile as well.

youtube.com/watch?v=HsUVCcTDf1E&lc=UgyPgkCO_D05VAg4EZN4AaABAg.A-oObfYksPkA-p6NCwkAi6

> “@SMoore-vj7bt 😂 you must be a blast at parties.”

@stephenwhalen2634  how’s the mud wrestling working for ya?

youtube.com/watch?v=HsUVCcTDf1E&lc=UgzXUOarqggXNJ3oIUN4AaABAg.A-oPtIp7iuQA-oT_22dkJJ

youtube.com/watch?v=HsUVCcTDf1E&lc=Ugz38HgbxH4_WvM60OF4AaABAg.A-oOW7_nGCiA-om2WFzEcn

Note YT censored all my commentary:

> > “Peak in end of 2025? Hmm I’m thinking end of this year/early 2025”
>
> “The pattern has always been the same. But 6 months before the halving and sell 18 months later”

@peterlane2721 the 4 year cycle bull top has ranged between roughly 12 to 18 months after the halving event. Also the second top in 2021 might be an Elliot wave B or an Expanded Flat correction with looming wave C to make a lower low, but perhaps not until after topping at roughly 79k in 2025. That’s the million dollar unknown as to whether the said 2021 double top was the ending wave 5 which would also make it the ending wave 5 of Bitcoin’s entire history. In that latter case the crypto winter should me much deeper than it has been. Thus I lean to the former interpretation with major wave 5 ending in 2025 roughly 79k.

@peterlane2721 the speculative math is that given that the ratio between the 4 year bull cycle top and the price at the halving has historically been shrinking with diminishing returns by a factor of 3.3 and 3.75. So given that Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio hypothesis (also covered on Alessio Rastani’s February 23, 2023 episode) has historically computed the said top given the preceding crypto winter bottom is now computing 79k for the 2025 top, thus the price at the April 2024 halving should be between 21 - 33k.

@peterlane2721 Also the current trajectories of the moving averages on the Pi Cycle Top indicator which has triggered at every said top are aligned such that Bitcoin must decline significantly below 36k if the 79k top will be delayed as normal until Q2 to Q4 2025. Also Bitcoin has pulled back roughly 40% or more historically just before or after every halving, if that pattern will repeat.

18 feb 2024

Nota

Is Bitcoin heading to 58k? Remember ~58k was the maximum extent of the bullish extension that I expected could be plausible.

youtu.be/Fymlj7c2vsk
(BITCOIN WILL HIT A NEW ALL TIME HIGH!!!!!!!!)

Taking Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio top for this 4 cycle at 79k to be inviolable, mathematically impossible for BTC to have a Pi Cycle top if it rocketed to 79k immediately. Given the red MA is the 350 DMA×2, mathematically must decline below ~30k in 2024 before rallying to Pi Cycle top 79k.

If currently in up wave B of an Expanded Flat correction, could B top 79k w/o Pi Cycle top? IOW, do Pi Cycle tops only apply to Elliot wave 5 tops? If so, wave C is going to be brutal to a lower-low heading into 2025, which nobody would expect.

Pi Cycle top requires a rocketing price, not hesitations+lurches. Prior cycles tagged (currently ~65K) 350 DMA×2 before halving.







==============

Facetious, click bait video title.

youtu.be/RUufWnEH9UE
(This is super bullish for bitcoin so I decided to short it! Let me explain | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

7:00 On the monthly chart, I can drawn those three trend lines such that they intersect ~65k where the Pi Cycle top 350×2 DMA is where Bitcoin normal tags around the halving. This might be going higher before decline. Eyeballing it, looks like the orange above was ~58k at time of video and rising ~2k every 5 - 7 days depending how many days to get there.



==============

No weekly topping tail this week and the week ends Sunday night. Looks like do not have the topping pattern yet. Ron said he could be wrong if no topping tail by Sunday’s close.

youtu.be/m_lfrX-fiig
(Bitcoin Has Likely Topped & the BTC CRASH Will Likely Begin Over The Weekend & Escalate by Next Week)

Divergences are indicative that a top is near.

youtu.be/P5_Me5NAWLY
(The AI Bubble is About To Pop & CRASH the Markets - Investors Are Extremely Complacent | Ron Walker)

I get $58 or 65k for Ron’s trend lines when I draw them in blue color.





==============

If February closes above 49K, that will be a bullish engulfing candle.

19 feb 2024

Nota

I watched it. I agree Bitcoin is near a top if not already. I still think Bitcoin could lurch higher, but he may be correct that $ 53.5k could be the maximum. Or Bitcoin could just roll over from here. I was hoping for a long wick topping tail though.

youtube.com/watch?v=PjJHU51x3sY
(The Bitcoin Bull Trap is Nearly Complete - BTC CRASH Back To 38K Coming Soon)

===============

With ETH heading rapidly towards the $3000 - 3200 harmonic target I have had since October 2022, and Nvidia to report earnings on Wednesday with an implied market volatility of 11%, I am thinking that Wednesday may be the top.

Bitcoin may only top out $53.5 or it may topping tail $55 - 58ish. I highly doubt the $60+k level. As Ethereum heads towards its top that is usually the last gasp for the crypto markets.

youtu.be/w5kEAxf31mc
(Nvidia's Results May Unleash A Wave of Market Volatility)

============

Look ETH almost $3000 now and Bitcoin sideways to down.

This feels very much like a top.

Bitcoin might make one more lurch to 53k, but I highly doubt now it is going much higher.

I am calling a top.

27 feb 2024

Nota

The following is the first attempt I’ve encountered to come up with a different pattern than Steve Courtney’s 5.3 diminishing returns ratio model.

youtu.be/4cJxpt7G2_Q
(BITCOIN: HOW HIGH CAN IT GO? No BS Model (Engineer Explains) | CTO LARSSON)

ctoLarsson actually I made this same analysis a while back. Note pre-halving gain decreasing by a factor of 1.5, thus should be 1.8×15.4 = ~28k. Expecting a crash! Pre/post ratio decreasing by a factor of 2.3, thus 1.3×1.8×28 = ~66k. Thus the ~70 - 79k top of the first model will also be fulfilled! Triple top kiss of death.

I have not emailed you yet about the anyone can spend destruction coming for pay-to-script-hash. I recently reexplained to another engineer, so I will send you a copy of the convo.

==========

C.f. JerryMander’s comment below and my reply.

“JerryManders, skip to the last update I will post to this after this comment. I had Bitcoin going as high as ~58k. Even 64k is possible on a final wick. I was skeptical of the top not being in at 53k due to the lack of a topping tail. Crash must be around the corner.”

=====

Massive rug pull incoming?

youtu.be/FkGcAsi7PKk
(It’s NOW LAW: The Great Crash To Start March 11th - 15 Days (w/100% Proof!))

It’s not just the end of the BFTP, but also the winding down of the Reverse Repo facility. If that combined with a government shutdown in March could trigger a deflationary flash event?

theconversation.com/why-economists-are-warning-of-another-us-banking-crisis-224092

My hypothesis is they need one more deflationary flash crash to complete the banking system centralization and give China/Japan the opportunity to dump their Treasuries at a massive profit, before the Fed becomes the entire Treasury market going forward at spiraling up interest rates (not a problem when the Fed owns all Treasuries and remits all interest back to the Treasury).

27 feb 2024

Nota

I have a new take on Steve’s point about the first 2021 price top being the RSI top and thus indicating that should break the ATH now.

Could be that we are headed for another double top with the first one coming right now, and then second one in Q3 2025? And this may form a quadruple top. Again based on the pre/post-halving gain model which validates Steve’s 5.3 model as well!

Steve is starting to notice something is weird about this 4 year cycle.

youtu.be/Mp7cJLDCgI0
(BITCOIN RALLY: IS IT OVER? BE READY FOR THIS | Crypto Crew U.)

=====

Final topping tail blowoff top for Bitcoin before the halving crash underway?

youtu.be/tP6KKG0OQCQ

=====

My comment:

youtu.be/uJe_FNl51V0 ← c.f. liquidity vs. BTC chart @ 2:55
(TEXT BOOK SETUP = $90,000 🎯)

Liquidity is about to crash in March. Have you not being paying attention to the March 11 deadline?

27 feb 2024

Nota

Someone reacted to my prior update (specifically the part of a possible rug pull) with a rotflmao emoji. So I replied as follows…

YOU WILL BE REKTD IF YOU ARE LAUGHING AT THE PROSPECT OF A MASSIVE RUG PULL.

I WILL NOT MESSAGE YOU ANYMORE IF YOU ARE LAUGHING AT THE ANALYSIS.

IF YOU ARE LAUGHING AT THE HILARITY OF THE PROSPECT FOR A POSSIBLE FLASH CRASH CATCHING MOONBOYS BY SURPRISE, PLEASE CLARIFY THAT IS YOUR INTENT.

Remember I had stated it could go to 58k or even 64k. I also told you that until it closed below 49k, that I was wary of 53k not being the top, because of the lack of a topping tail. I even passed along Wolves of Crypto’s and Ron Walker’s analyses suggesting another leg up when it was down around 50.8k.

Also realize I have been traveling since Feb 20, from Baja Sur to LAX to Manila to Davao to Pagadian. The first and last legs were long drives.

You are now missing a lot of important follow-up analysis. Make sure you do not sell, because you deserve to reap what you sow.

I should not get involved anymore. Regards.

============================

Follow-up comments about in my prior update the CTO LARSSEN model for how price can go…

> “@SMoore-vj7bt i agree. 300 grand isnt impossible of course but a crazy high prediction. most long term logarithmic charts have the top at 80-90g like pi cycle and a few others”

@denaco the possible impetus for another 2020-style flash crash in March, is the recent uptick in inflation (even used cars up significantly with tax refund season, Carvana on a buying spree at +20% prices, as well Panama and Suez canals are under stress) thus emboldening the Fed with the BTFP expiration on March 11, the winding down of the Reverse Repo facility (which on the prior two times it was wound down in 2008 and 2020 it resulted in a severe market crash) and the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown in March.

This resembles the 2019 pump and dump pre-halving, except the peak is coming later nearer to the halving, which could have the effect of luring in, fooling and REKTING all the moonboys. A flash crash to below 28k, then the halving at 28k in late April is a (shocking?) possibility.

@denaco as for the price at the top in 2025, Steve Courtney had identified that 5.3 diminishing factor of the gain from bottom to the top of every 4 year cycle. I think that is going to hold, so ~79k in 2025. That is going to shock many people. But the perplexing matter is that mathematically the Pi Cycle top indicator can not trigger unless there is a very fast run up in the price. So does this mean there could be a very fast run from say 28k to ~79k in 2024 and then another flash crash and another quadruple top in 2025?

This 4 year cycle is even more bizarre than 2019 and I ponder whether it is indicative of a looming anyone can spend hypothesis and game theory.

@denaco I hope CTO LARSSON is reading these replies. Shockingly the Fed might even raise rates (c.f. below) and the administration needs a flash crash in an election year to force the Fed back to QE.

CTO LARSSON presumably does not understand the game theory and asymmetrical economics of the posited looming anyone can spend Nash equilibrium restoration event which will destroy the scaling on Bitcoin and return it to the legacy protocol (forcing a hard fork wherein the miners take ~15 million Bitcoins for themselves). This is going to crater the price to near 0 in perhaps 2026.

youtu.be/4_FxBhAgVCQ
(Is The Fed's Next Move A Rate Hike?)

ctoLarsson Apologies I have been traveling (Cabo to LAX to Manila to Davao to Pagadian sandwiched with two long drives) so hadn’t the opportunity yet to provide you the vital explanations you have presumably never read before (because I am the only non-cryptic source in the world). Very unlikely you understand the posited anyone can spend even though you claimed to have studied it, because everybody gets the analysis wrong until I debate them and rebuke all their incorrect misconceptions. Nobody has explained it correctly other than myself and cryptically by the original source Mircea Popescu (the whale with 500k BTC).

========================

youtu.be/4_FxBhAgVCQ?t=852
(Is The Fed's Next Move A Rate Hike? | Andreas Steno)

14:12 very interesting point that the wealth effect of pandemic QE has removed much of the skilled labor force causing enduring structural inflation. Immigrating non-skilled migrants doesn’t replace skilled early retirees. The West is screwed. I figure the administration needs the Fed to hike, end the BTFP and Reverse Repo, along with a potential government shutdown, so as to create another 2020-style March flash crash to force the Fed back to QE in an election year. This would also allow the Chinese and Japanese to dump their Treasuries so that the Fed can become the sole owner of Treasuries as they collapse/centralize the banking system pre-CBDC, because the Fed remits all interest income profits back to the Treasury. So they can run spiraling up interest rates from 2025 forward with the U.S. Treasuring needing to roll over ~11T of debt every year forward! This unrelenting economic pain will condition the world for WWIII. Also the system is coming to clawback, confiscate, capital controls against all those who cashed out of the workforce with their huge capital gains.

==============================

Jim Rickards also says the Fed did a last rate hike tightened into recession. Fed will create a crash landing because they have no choice, as they are stuck between inflation and deflation.

youtu.be/WZjB3Kv5TXI?t=220
(5 MINS AGO! Jim Rickards: "We're Seeing Something We've Never Seen Before" - 2024 Recession)

27 feb 2024

Nota

Can you say “flash crash incoming”? I know you can. March 2020 repeating? As I predicted since I posted this idea on Tradingview on Oct 24, 2023.

youtube.com/channel/UCoJhK5kMc4LjBKdiYrDtzlA/community?lb=UgkxkkBk3KeyXPquyrUvIBWU-sSH3r8Ws9rQ

> “Would you support a Government Shutdown in March if it meant a wider effort to secure the border? Share why in the comments. #BorderCrisis”

91% of 16k voters voted YES

====================================

What Steve fails to point out is that the red also crossed up above the purple in 2019, then crashed back down through it.

youtu.be/ukz1NjyKH9Y
(BREAKING: ICHIMOKO LEGENDARY CROSS | Crypto Crew U.)

====================================

youtu.be/twv2XPB-fps
(BREAKING: IS BITCOIN ABOUT TO BURST INTO PHASE 3 OF BULL | Crypto Crew U.)

REKTING incoming. Steve makes two very important points in this video. The March monthly candle must close above ~50k level for phase 3 of the 4 year cycle to be confirmed— it’s not enough for February to close the end of the month above. Secondly that the parabolic bull run of Q42020 to Q12021 was 5 monthly green candles (~151 days) which is the exact same as this current move (5 monthly green candles), unlike the 2016 to 2017 phase 3 which was about a year in duration. The implication is that this current move up could fail and we could see more double-top nonsense like in 2021. This concurs with my other analyses. Additionally Steve is reiterating his point about the RSI indicating the move to a new ATH could occur now based the measured time since it crossed down through and now back up into the key level, but this could be part of the overall nonsense of how bizarre and perturbed the 4 year cycles are ostensibly becoming. Additionally even though February is likely to close with a bullish engulfing candle, this has never occurred before for Bitcoin. Yet quarterly bullish engulfing candles have failed before.

====================================

youtu.be/B4qiPshFT0A?t=645
(Is bitcoin about to go parabolic? | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

10:45 On BITSTAMP exchange monthly time frame chart, I had on February 18 plotted your three intersecting lines along the candle bodies and I get the intersection price as high as 65k or as low as for example 58k. Thus I do not think there is enough precision to say it has flipped as support yet as it could still be overhead resistance. I just added your new cyan line and it can indeed be taken to be overhead resistance at ~58k, although precision is not exact enough to pinpoint that specific level only.

I have done extensive other analyses which point to the high-likelihood that this is a massive bull trap!

His indicators are useful, but he hasn’t learned how to use them correctly yet. Remember his cyan ring predicted the pump from 15.4k exactly. He turned bearish too soon. REKTING now incoming for the moonboys right when he turns bullish.





I can also redraw OPTICALARTdotCOM’s intersecting trend lines to indicate a ~57 - 58k top.



====================================

QAnon:
you didn't think "It’s NOW LAW: The Great Crash To Start March 11th - 15 Days (w/100% Proof!)" is a little hyperbolic and sensationalist?

as if they wouldn't just find another way to kick the can at the expense of the taxpayers?

Myself:
> theconversation.com/why-economists-are-warning-of-another-us-banking-crisis-224092

Was this hyperbolic and sensationalist?

QAnon:
they created the BTFP they can make another one if it expires and creates a lot of volatility

Myself:
Exactly. Now add 2 + 2.

QAnon:
i do imagine that the costs to kick the inflationary debt can down the road grow exponentially

so there will come a point where they can't

Myself:
You are still missing the elephant in the living room. Which both the election year and the Fed need an excuse to restart QE. What better way than to repeat a March 2020 flash crash by raising interest rates again into a global recession, end the Reverse Repo, end the BFTP and shutdown the government all in March after capturing all the moonboys in a bull trap.

QAnon:
idk they probably want to keep the stock market pump going so people will vote for the incumbent

Myself:
People who receive stimi checks vote for Demonrats. Renewed QE sending the stock market to the moon before the election would be better than having it rollover into a recession by Q4.

QAnon:
agreed

plus all the politicians with stocks have it in their interests to keep prices up nominally at least

Myself:
okay I will forward today's new analysis to you then.

So a deflationary crash first in March, then renewed QE to the moon into the election.

27 feb 2024

Nota

I also forgot to mention that a posited crash could extend past the late April halving, as was the case in 2016. Also if we repeat the March 2020 crash, that targets a bottom of ~21k, which is the bottom side of the possible “21 - 33k” range I calculated by a different method as well.

Allessio also agrees with Ron Walker this is possibly the last leg up minor wave 5 with key 0.786 Fib retracement resistance (on the non-log chart) of 57.5k.

youtu.be/E4wE_hhcdIc
(Bitcoin Hits SECOND Important Target ...now what? | Alessio Rastani)

=======================================

youtube.com/watch?v=znjRdshA1iw&lc=UgxTQeYAXbJr87ExbYB4AaABAg.A0KrdIDitVmA0LAejQ3hqB
(Comments on "Bitcoin BTC: EARLY Bull Run Confirmed? - The UNSTOPPABLE Pump!")

> > {my comment} Downvoted. March must close above 50k to confirm, not February.
>
> “@SMoore-vj7bt lol”

@WolvesOfCrypto_ REKTING incoming for the arrogant bloke. Your Aussie attitude is a carbon copy of the Pizzino brothers

28 feb 2024

Nota

> “The only level that is consistent has been the top of the solid candles on the 3 monthly chart, which for this cycle is 58k. The top could be anywhere below 58k”

Bingo! I nailed it on February 12.

28 feb 2024

Nota

@WolvesOfCrypto_ you foolishly disregard that I told you the only consistent level of rejection for each mid-cycle top was the top of the quarterly candles which is 58k. You now turn bullish after being bearish right at the top, lol.

@WolvesOfCrypto_ your inane intransigence reminds of the Aussie vloggers the Pizzino brothers.

youtube.com/shorts/IrwJ1y8LFtM
(Elon Musks Completely Wrong Economic Prediction | #recession | Jason Pizzino)

> “Musks comment was from 2022, and he was talking about the economy not the markets. He was right on the money. And Jason, I follow you all the time and think you’re great, but you often highlight the distinction between the economy and the markets.”

Exactly. Self-aggrandizing Pizzino conflates tough environment for tech and auto companies in a high interest rate regime with a stock market prediction. 🤦‍♂️🤡

=================================

Myself:
Bingo! I nailed it on February 12.

QAnon:
Not quite!

Myself:
Excellent. I only sold 0.5 BTC at 57k. Time to sell some moar.

I have 65k as the absolute maximum possible. If above that, then something else entirely is going on.

=================================

This move is much too vertical. This is very reminiscent of June 2019. The more extreme the spike up, the more extreme the pre/post-halving correction is going to be!

I very much doubt I will be wrong about this. If I am, then all the diminishing returns math for the 4 year cycle is broken and “this time is different.” Sorry it is never different— the naive and inexperienced have to learn this the hard way.

I sat there in June 2019 and watched the price spike to 13.9k sitting on 50 BTC that I did not sell. It was too much, too fast, too soon.

I previously wrote:

> “Prior cycles tagged (currently ~ 65K ) 350 DMA×2 {the Pi Cycle upper moving average} before halving.”

> “On the monthly chart, I can drawn those three trend lines such that they intersect ~65k where the Pi Cycle top 350×2 DMA is where Bitcoin normal tags around the halving. This might be going higher before decline.”

If this is headed up to 79k, then it means there is a horrible crash to a new low incoming. So I do not care if I sell my last BTC at 65k and then it continues to 79k. If 65k is the top, this is likely going back down to 21k. If 79k is the top, then 13.9k or lower is coming post-halving as that will be my posited Expanded Flat correction scenario wherein wave B makes slightly higher high then wave C a lower-low!

=================================

Gareth Soloway says a three daily green candle surge is often the final exhaustion move, just before the PCE release tomorrow.

He says 65 and 69k are next major overhead resistance.

youtu.be/bvgQhA-dmGc
(Trading & Investing: Bitcoin Booms, NVDA Tops, CRM Earnings Trade, Gold Time Bomb | Gareth Soloway)

=================================

youtu.be/re12cNcKLnI?t=1824
(Bitcoin & Crypto - It's Only Up From Here | Eric Krown Crypto)

28:45 and 30:54 the moving average caught up in 2019 before the corona dump. You just cherry pick a juncture where the blue indicator is above some level. I do not take your rationale as any sort of valid statistical claim. Heck you do not even have enough data samples to differentiate which metrics are statistically significant from those which are just noisy coincidence. Thus Bitcoin could still dump into a March government shutdown and BTFP+RRepo expiration, also if a posited Fed rate hike with recently surging inflation. PCE inflation data and Powell speaking this week.

=================================

> > {my prior comment} Allessio also agrees with Ron Walker this is possibly the last leg up minor wave 5 with key 0.786 Fib retracement resistance (on the non-log chart) of 57.5k.
>
> “That guy has been wrong so many times lol I stopped following him”

@sharhful Ron Walker (aka the Doctor of Dump & Pump) was correct at the top in 2021. Also he has been correct on every top and resurgence on the way up. For example he did call for another leg up on the decline to ~50.8k. He has been incorrect about expecting those tops to the final top of this rally numerous times. IOW, Ron has good turn indicators but has been expecting the next leg down since ~20k. Every analyst has a weakness, which is why I learn to use them for what they are good at and form my own holistic analysis, which you will not find above. My comprehensive analysis is multi-faceted and compiled at trading view.

=================================

Fed lied last year when they said 3 rate cuts, because they were just protecting themselves politically. Economic activity towards the end of 2023 was significantly coming from the government fiscal side. All that has changed now, yet the risk-on FOMO has not yet caught on yet. Government shutdown possible in March.

Woo thinks the economy can go into paralysis in the 4 months leading up to the election because of the political risk and polarization. My reaction is surely TPTB know this and thus they would prefer a govt shutdown and economic crash, which they can blame on the Republican House as the pretext to drive the Fed back to QE. Especially if inflation is rising again simultaneously which appears to be the case.

youtu.be/4yJ0F44K9gg
(Analyst Who Nailed 2016 & 2020 U.S. Elections Sees Huge Economic Headwind With 2024 Vote | David Woo)

=================================

The U.S. headed for massive civil unrest when the 2024 election is stolen again by some means.

This discussion gets really heated. Americans are increasingly pissed off.

youtu.be/ZmlAuhOFUYA
(JUST IN: Tom Homan Issues Blunt Warning To Migrants Who Have Crossed Into U.S. Under Biden | Forbes)

youtube.com/watch?v=RMMR_HRE-aQ
('As I Ready Myself For A Prison Cell...': Peter Navarro Speaks At CPAC Before Heading To Prison | Forbes)

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/get-prepared-for-serious-civil-unrest/

armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/murder-and-rape-legal-for-lawless-migrants/

29 feb 2024

Nota

QAnon2:
Who would be selling? More than 60% of BTC hasn’t moved in 2 years+… I don’t see a sub $ 29k crash happening.. too much of the supply was accumulated at $ 23k+ .. wouldn’t make any sense

Myself:
Famous last words.

Who would sell? At 69k in 2021.

The whales who will dump on your ass so they can create a panic sell-off contagion, so they can repurchase lower.

Did you forget the point I made that during a liquidity contagion, the most liquid assets are sold first?

========================

QAnon:
that's what happens when there is less and less supply

"If this is headed up to 79k, then it means there is a horrible crash to a new low incoming." I'm not sure that can be the only outcome

btw foreign markets are already past ATH

local top hopefully

58-59 might be a local bottom but there was little support down to there so i suspect further down

Myself:
“It is different this time.”

Sorry never is. That is what they said at 69k, it is going to $ 150k, and I stupidly got talked out of selling despite massive bearish divergences.

If this does go to the moon before the halving that will be exactly jibe with what Craig Wright said that the attack would come at a halving event. If 79k I sell all my BTC and GTFO so I do not end up REKTD with a huge tax bill from the airdrop I can never pay.

========================

QAnon2:
$ 64k.. you sellin?

I’m not

Bitcoin moves in mysterious ways

Myself:
Yes I sold moar. But I still have some to sell if it goes higher to $ 79k.

I also wanted to open more June 35k puts.

========================

QAnon2:
Luckily I only gambled what I can afford to lose

I don't own any BTC in was just trying to short it

Seems like sports betting is easier than trying to catch the top lol

Myself:
I have June 35k puts. I have not lost anything yet.

Also back at ~$ 50k I suggested you reenter long.

You have to scale in shorts. We got the 47k to 38k short correct, but we had to reload when Ron Walker said to. Then we were correct to sell at $ 53k, but when Ron Walker said reload at 50.8k we had to go long again.

Now we got the 64k topping tail. That may be the top. If not and we must reload for going to 79k, then the wave C back down is going to be vicious to a lower-low.

Something very ominous is transpiring with Bitcoin. The ANYONECANSPEND attack may be coming prematurely? I will need to wait to see where the top is on this ETF FOMO.

========================

QAnon2:
Was it really a topping tail on 64K considering the Coinbase fiasco that triggered the dump?

Myself:
Amazing the manipulation underway now! This is not an organic move. TPTB are luring everyone into a massive bull trap and they are going to slam this down hard pre-or-post-halving. Billionaires been selling stock as they may know what is looming perhaps in March.

cnbc.com/2024/02/28/coinbase-users-see-0-balance-after-crypto-trading-app-suffers-glitch.html

Responding to Patl66:

> “Just love how every crypto just turned super red at the same time at around 12:35 pm 😂. It’s so fake this whole market makes is a fraud. Hopefully I can get my little share of the crypto fraud by mid 2025.”

> “Feels like TPTCC (powers that control crypto) have decided to change their tactics and get as many small fish as possible into btc and they will pull the rug. They will also pull the alts rug since most will think that the newly minted money will go towards alts but in fact they will pull the plug on the whole freaking market. IMO of course”

That they pumped it during the U.S. market day hours where the Millennial (to-da-moon) FOMO is maximum is I think worthy of contemplation.

========================

QAnon:
we're probably gonna keep heading back towards ath

Myself:
It looks plausible with the top of the PI Cycle MA up there and it was pierced with an overthrow wick in June 2019.

This is very, very ominous, especially at this pre-halving juncture in the 4 year cycle. This would mean Bitcoin is completing wave B of an Expanded Flat Correction, which requires wave C to come down to a lower-low than 15.4k unless the RARE Running Flat. Either way, this should be coming down hard & significantly pre-or-post-halving.

Note bearish RSI divergence forming on the monthly chart if close Feb at these levels!! 😱

29 feb 2024

Nota

Government shutdown or not on March 1 or 8?

perspectives.agf.com/changing-our-odds-on-a-government-shutdown/

“THERE ARE NO OTHER PLAUSIBLE SHORT-TERM SCENARIOS, which raises a major wild card – if there’s no deal by April 30, an across-the-board spending cut of 1 percent would be imposed, which would hit defense spending hard. This provision was part of the debt ceiling deal last spring.

THE GROWING LIKELIHOOD OF NO DEAL BY FRIDAY has stunned Washington insiders. A month ago, we thought chances of a shutdown were about 25%. Last week it looked like 40%. Now it appears likely – perhaps 60% – that there will be no deal by Friday and possibly many days longer.”

forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/25/a-partial-government-shutdown-is-days-away-but-will-likely-be-averted/

1 mar 2024

Nota

I forgot to add that OPTICALARTdotCOM also allowed for the plausibility that the price might meander up to the intersection of his two Fib circles. Eyeballing it that looks like late March and ~79k.

So the U.S. Congress will pass another 2 to 3 weeks continuing resolution to avert shutdown? And then the crash will come in April after the BTFP expires on March 31 and the government finally shuts down due to impasse over the border?

The American people are mad as hell about the border and are putting massive pressure now. The truckers are now boycotting the entire City of NY after the Trump case that fined trump 400m for doing nothing wrong.

========================

I had my 64k limit sell order on Bybit for USDC. If I had set it for USDT, it would not have filled.

Not yet a topping tail. Looks like it will go up and wick through that overhead Pi Cycle top MA, as it did in June 2019 as well.

I will double down on some more puts if make another surge up. I prefer to target the downside profit potential since IT IS SO MUCH GREATER THAN THE UPSIDE because (soon-to-be REKTD) moonboys do not think so.

For me this is mostly likely an Expanded or Running Flat, thus this needs to triple top ATH. I will not repurchase to try to sell the exact top. That is for those who need more risk and more reward. I have enough now to complete my plans and my work on an altcoin (notwithstanding the new problem I have with Michelle).



========================

QAnon4:
Hi, Shelby. Do you have any estimate of how high it may go up if it breaks upper MA? I am not asking for thorough analysis, just for more or less realistic figure to look at. Thank you.

Myself:
Draw a trend line from the two 2021 tops. Perhaps somewhere between that and 79k at the absolute max. ~70+k

QAnonemo
Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch now offering bitcoin ETFs to their clients
x.com/watcherguru/status/1763265462887223740

Myself:
More moon boy FOMO.

The wood chipper is being prepared.

trilema.com/2013/the-story-of-pointless-and-witless/

You all better hope this does not rocket to 100k because that would in my mind signal a very high probability that ANYONECANSPEND attack is what will crash it. I am already getting a bit wary of this and wondering if I feel safe hodling USDT and USDC instead of actual USD.

I hope the ANYONECANSPEND is either not at a halving as Craig Wright had alluded, or that it comes in 2028.

But something is very weird about this and the prior 4 year cycle.

I expect most will be entirely REKTD. Which is the plan of course, which is why BlackRock got involved.

QAnonemo:
Craig Wright is a charlatan

Myself:
He is a pawn who will be used as a scapegoat by TPTB who will issue the ANYONECANSPEND. They will say he moved his 1 million coins.

The entire trial thing is to eventually provide the pretext where he must move them or something.

He sued himself btw, while pretending he was sued.

Biden pretends to be senile or maybe is.

========================

My censored comment (Steve has been me banned from commenting):

youtu.be/DMyQ9WGcZBA
(BREAKING: IS BITCOIN ABOUT TO HAVE NEW ATH FOR FIRST TIME EVER BEFORE HALVING | Crypto Crew U.)

If makes new ATH before the halving (e.g. 79k to fit your 5.3 diminishing returns hypothesis, and it certainly looks like it will now with the RSI breaking out as you have shown) that would be either wave B of a (typically the case) Expanded Flat or the very rare Running Flat Elliot Wave formation. This means a severe correction for wave C would ensue possibly even a lower-low if it is an Expanded Flat. This development is very ominous and not healthy for the market structure. It seems to confirm the hypothesis that the first peak in 2021 was the top and the second one was an Expanded Flat forming wave A of this larger/consuming Flat that is forming now. Elliot Wave Flats can have a wave B that makes a higher high before correcting into wave C.

========================

Looking like ~79 - 81k will be the top.

This will be the final top for this 4 year cycle, unless it crashes hard then comes back up in Q3 2025 for a quadruple top.

youtu.be/59Rxp0_FXGU
(BREAKING: BITCOIN ABOUT TO DO SOMETHING FOR FIRST TIME SINCE LAST TOP | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve explains unhealthy market structure.

youtu.be/3EncmIrkyCQ
(CRYPTO PUMP: WILL IT CONTINUE? BE READY FOR THIS)

Triple top with ATH followed by a triple bottom with a lower-low all within the 4-year cycle? Then back up by Q3 2025 to a quadruple top?

========================

The no-user-comments-allowed Ron Walker still hasn’t caught on yet, still calling for a top at every breakout level on the way up since 19k,🤦‍♂️🤡 although he his admitting could run to a new ATH.

youtu.be/ztRK-BXw5LQ
(Bitcoin - Important Trendlines & BTC Resistance Levels | Doctor of Dump & Pump)

========================

QAnon4:
Is this really smart? Wasn't this easy to predict just a matter of when the collective phsyche of investors made their move? Inspired by IRL new like the small bank collapses

Myself:
Yeah I underestimated how much TPTB would push the ETF narrative FOMO. But I think they are not yet done. We have a breakout now. Why would it stop here? This will turn into a frenzy.

QAnon4:
If market conditions were okay , how could it stay at 15k?

I understand how it will stop at the top, but calling that it goes up from 19k doesn't seem particular insightful

Oh I think I misread it

Myself:
Huh? The market structure is how long it takes to rise. Since 15.4k, the rise has been very gradual with breakouts then pullbacks on the way up. That built a lot of market structure that is enabling this crazy June 2019-esque FOMO to go much higher than it did in June 2019 relative to the ATH.

Myself:
No he (Ron Walker) was calling for a top at every juncture since 19k. He has been wrong about a top umpteen times.

QAnon4:
Do you know the site aggr.trade?

Myself:
Sorry no.

QAnon4:
But I can surely confirm from that observation that itS a frenzy

Myself:
Maximum frenzy? The obscure alts have not mooned yet?

QAnon4:
On 5s charts there is constantly support at every previous low from 30s prior

Until it spikes enough to hit sell orders

Myself:
I am thinking we will get a deeper pullback first with the threat of government shutdown. Then next leg up later in March?

2 mar 2024

Nota

The post-halving correction will be at least the -40% of 2016, but possibly -80%, because a new ATH is an Extended or (very rarely) Running Flat. Extended Flats make new lows (i.e. lower than 15.4k). This 4 year cycle is going to shock everyone. I had been warning about this on my public Tradingview since 2021 when I identified a worrisome pattern. As for other reasons the post-halving correction could be so severe in addition to BTFP/RRepo expirations on March 31 and possibly government shutdown on March 22, I also think based on Gensler’s statements that the Ethereum ETFs will not be approved in May.

This video reiterates what I previously mentioned which is that the pre-halving rally usually terminates at the upper MA of the Pi Cycle Top indicator or up to 20% wick above it. Wish I would have noticed this earlier than this past week, as I would have been more bullish along this rally.

Since per my prior comments yesterday, there is a great plausibility of this rally continuing into the end of March (and the U.S. Govt shutdown was just delayed until March 8 and 22, with 22 probably the onerous one) which concurs with the logic of the following video.

I do think we might get a pullback to the 57k level before this rally continues. Could be brought on by concerns about the March 8 deadline.

The upper MA of the Pi Cycle Top will be ~71 - 73k by late March, so a wick above can easily take it to the 79 - 81k target price level for the top of this rally.

youtube.com/watch?v=rafJ7R1bs8U
(The Bitcoin Pre-Halving Rally - When & Where Will It End?)

2 mar 2024

Nota

Government shutdown showdown looming finally in March. They can not kick the can any longer. We will soon find out if there are enough House Republicans with a pair of balls. And whether they will demand a bill which House Democrats will reject.

thehill.com/homenews/house/4497480-head-of-freedom-caucus-bashes-funding-deal-vows-shutdown-fight/

archive.today/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/28/government-shutdown-deadline-extension-congress/

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) floated the extension Tuesday to Democrats, who reacted favorably — but only to a point. “If that’s what it takes to get this done, then let’s do it. But this ‘kicking the can down the road’ crap really does need to stop,” said Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), the top Democratic negotiator on the defense appropriations bill.

…

“Such a proposal would almost surely trigger a shutdown, which is the preference of the Freedom Caucus, members have said.”

2 mar 2024

Nota

Don’t forget that what I predicted in October 2023 for this idea, has been playing out exactly. So the -80% crash comes next.

========================

Probably a pullback to 55.6 to 58.4k before launching to ~78k.

youtu.be/a4_tlF_-f5M?t=65
(BITCOIN: I'M IN SHOCK!!!!!!! | Crypto Anup)

========================

Watched this after stating already I expect a 40 to 80% correction.

Notice Steve published after I emailed explaining a new ATH would be an Expanded or Running Flat, which requires a huge correction.

This shows without any doubt that the 2019 to 2020 scenario is repeating as I had predicted since 2021.

At most another month remaining for this rally.

Moon boys MUST watch this (on double-speed).

youtu.be/xILjzGm29bo
(WARNING: What They’re NOT TELLING YOU About This Crypto PUMP | Crypto Crew U.)

========================

Pootin:
B.T.W. Masterluc thinks that the trend is bullish noting that monthly candle closed above BB

Myself:
I hope you understand I expect a 40 to 80% correction but not until after this rally completes in March.

Pootin:
His last post (translated)
Yes, a new month has opened. Above the BB and very high. This means that on the one hand the trend is very fast. On the other hand, the price will visit the upper BB back. Thus, a temporary correction up to 50k is possible, and this will not negatively affect the bullish layout.

Myself:
Excellent. Yes I am also expecting a pullback first, and Crypto Anup had 53+k as the range of the possible pullback before rocketing higher.

4 mar 2024

Nota

QAnon:
i kind of think we're about to pop up from this range

Myself:
It is threatening to pop right now. We will see if it will just form a second drive to 65k with a bearish divergence or break out.

QAnonemo:
Sold my March 29 Strike for 45k at $21,800. Originally purchased at $1,197.7

Better safe than sorry

Myself:
Yeah I think you had a bit more upside, but you had a significant gain there. Congratulations. I wish I had paid more attention to that every mid-cycle hit the Pi Cycle Top upper MA. I would have realized sooner that BTC was headed to 65+k.

I am pattern driven in trading. You were driven based upon narratives. I never buy into narratives. Unfortunately I missed the key pattern I should have been paying attention to.

QAnonemo:
Interest in BTC still relatively low compared to last cycle

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2019-01-01 2024-03-04&geo=US&q=Bitcoin&hl=en

Myself:
About the same level or higher than it was at the crash from extreme rally ino June 2019. Seems like a similar pattern to me.

They did not have stimi checks to FOMO into with in 2019. Had to wait until 2020/21. They are broke right now. We need a crash and restart of QE/stimis?

QAnonemo:
At least 80% nothing seems to be slowing down ETF purchases, OTC sales are slowing, miners are hodling more in preparation of halving, and FOMO hasn’t kicked in yet

Myself:
Oh so we are going to 100k then? You are so narrative driven.

I tell you exactly what reverses ETF buys into panic sells. A blackswan crash in the economy.

QAnonemo:
{chart}
$670,000,000 worth of shorts will get liquidated if bitcoin breaks its previous all time high of $69,000.

Myself:
Probably this entire rally has also been driven by short-covering. Everyone was attempting to short it all the way up due to disbelief of a new ATH so early in the 4 year cycle, not paying attention to every prior mid-cycle pierced the upper MA of the Pi Cycle Top indicator. Certainly the general market FOMO is entirely absent. I bet shorts will give up and flip long at the ATH.

Also ostensibly noone is reporting correctly on the strange dynamic of the ETFs:

investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373

“So the ETF shares track the price of bitcoins as closely as possible, and the ETF occasionally rebalances its holdings by buying or selling tokens…which create or redeem shares of the ETF based on market demand. If the ETF shares are trading at a premium or discount to the actual price of bitcoins, then the APs create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, essentially arbitraging the difference so that the ETF share price alignments with the cost of bitcoins.”

So think about this mathematically. While the token supply held by ETFs is initially small then inflows are a large premium delta, thus driving much demand in the spot market. Over time the supply held in ETFs swells and even a non-subsiding level of ongoing new demand leads to a much smaller premium delta and thus much smaller spot market demand. I.e. the premium delta is ongoing demand divided by supply held by ETFs.

This invalidates your naive conceptualization that ETF demand (on the spot market) is not diminishing. It is diminishing due to math regardless if flows into the ETFs are not diminishing.

“Traditionally, authorized participants are large banks, such as Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS).”

APs reap more profits when ETF share premium or discount is maximum. Thus as premium naturally diminishes, they have every incentive to create massive crash in the price and restart massive selling.

The Bitcoin ETFs are diabolical by their very design, because the Bitcoin market is still too small and can be too easily dominated in direction by whales and narrative propaganda bombs as well as convenient timing when the Fed stops the liquidity with the expiration of the BTFP/RRepos this month.

5 mar 2024

Nota

Btw, where I wrote earlier that the opening chart for this idea is playing exactly, scroll to the top, click the Play button the chart at top of this idea, note Ethereum completed the bullish harmonic pattern to 3200+. Now we have the looming bearish harmonic patter to sub-500 to play out either this year or no later than 2026. Those harmonic targets helped me predict back in 2022 the massive crash in NatGas, massive rallies in all these markets with some precision as I explained my other published idea.

QAnonemo:
x.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1764753244771815584?s=46
{chart}

Sell walls across exchanges are thin AF.

Many on my feed are expecting a consolidation or even a 10-30% drawdown at 69k.

But it seems to me we are going to explode upwards instead. Tick tock! #bitcoin

Myself:
That’s not my understanding of how to analyze these. The move up should consume the liquidity only, which is pointing at exactly the top I expect 79 - 81k. I mentioned this many times. I have an exact calculation since October 2022, pointing to that to be top price, I just did not expect it so soon but now I do.

QAnonemo:
{chart}
Chewing through the sell wall

Myself:
What part of “chewing through” is not the correct narrative did I not already explain?

The manipulators only have an incentive to go grab the liquidity, nothing more.

I hope you realize this is all being manipulated by (or for) the APs I mentioned previously.

Myself:
Snowden claims a country is accumulating Bitcoin to replace gold as their monetary reserve. How much longer is Martin Armstrong going to continue to ignore that Bitcoin is put here to replace the dollar and dire implications of that.

nasdaq.com/articles/edward-snowden-anticipates-government-acquisition-of-bitcoin-in-2024?time=1709151110

An aside for moving off-grid:
naturalbuildingblog.com/counties-with-few-or-no-building-codes/

QAnonemo:
New yearly high! BTC just hit ATH in UK, Euro and AUD!

Myself:
Did you not understand from my prior comments that I think Bitcoin making a new ATH only 2 years into the 4 year cycle is a dystopian outcome? Why are you expressing so much glee about your looming enslavement? I do not share your enthusiasm for the fact that this indicated the first peak in 2021 was the end of Bitcoin’s 5th Elliot Wave {since its inception in 2009}. Bitcoin is now in correction mode. Expanded Flat corrections can make higher highs, but they are still corrective and this has implications which I presume you are choosing to believe will not transpire.

The little profit you make now pales in comparison to the negative implications of what is forming.

QAnonemo:
JUST IN: 📈 Gold breaks $2,100 to make new all-time.

Myself:
Btw, I was agreeing with another vlogger yesterday that gold was about to breakout to 2400. And that gold is harbinger of something bad looming, probably a restart to QE after some induced crash, bcz gold is a flight to safety.

QAnonemo:
Agree, gold moving like this into a blow off top is usually right before market expansion and a correction

Myself:
I should have clarified that it is not that I frown on BTC making a new ATH, it is just I am not giddy with excitement about it. I am reverent in my need to prepare for a deflationary wrecking ball, and all the crap the nation-states are going to be doing in desperation to remain relevant. The Chinese curse applies, “may you live in interesting times.” BTC will be both a useful tool for us (for a while at least) but also an extremely sharp one akin to a wood chipper that we can insert our fingertips into if we are not careful (being chewed up to our armpits or beyond fully body exposure, lol). Also it will behoove us to develop a viable scalable decentralized cryptocurrency since BTC will not be scalable after ANYONESPEND. Also in case I forgot, the Power Rangers will be forced to hard fork their turd to polish it back to reset mining difficulty.

I guess my reaction was do not get too excited because the greater challenges lie ahead. And it is really not clear for example that we will escape our unconstitutional “U.S. Citizenship” ball & chain around our necks with any assets intact. The U.S. doing whatever fuckery they want wherever one of their presumed subjects is in the world. If they play by the rules and only take what you think the law says. For how much longer will we have rule of law? Capital controls can simply lock everything inside.

The {devolution of the} nation-state is coming after us Westerners.

I think you should be more worried than giddy {or glib}. I think we have a lot of work to do to survive what is transpiring. IOW, yes I am amazed at what is transpiring but not entirely in an positive demeanor. I have mixed reactions to the radical changes the world is undergoing in an accelerated pace of late.

…continued…

5 mar 2024

Nota

QAnonemo:
Definitely worried, but for the moment.. giddy that I’ll have more resources to manage the worries

I assume the enslavement you posit is in regards to the implications of what comes along with anyonecanspend?

Yeah, that’s not happening in my timeline. Not my belief, not my reality. You’re welcome for having such a positive person in your life whose belief systems will negate that outcome.

The future is bright my friend, abundance on the horizon. Between AI helping to eliminate unnecessary work, and identifying new discoveries that will enable the base layer of Maslow’s hierarchy to be the standard for the majority of humans. Advancements in 3d printing and materials, regenerative farming, energy production and storage, the list goes on and on.

The awakening that’s taking place and the accountability that comes along with bitcoin… we are on the verge of a renaissance.

TPTB will be ignored… will be very difficult to finance war, incentivize poverty, and buy unlimited influence to prop up fuckery when you don’t have a money printer, one has to be careful with how they spend with sound finite money.

You’re not plugged into the same communities I am. We're at a really interesting time in humanity right now, people are waking up to the cracks in the system… and the harder they push for technocratic dictatorship via CBDC and implementation of constraints that come along with programmed money… the faster they accelerate us towards this new renaissance.

We are shifting into a new timeline for humanity as more and more people are really questioning the old paradigms, whether that be systematically or internally…

The solution is as simple as non-compliance. And with the coming technological advancements and ever increasing abundance of resources, their ability to incentivize compliance dissipates.

Bitcoin is likely to still move in mysterious ways as it eats all the fiat value in the world until people no longer will accept fiat in exchange bitcoin and sats become the standard… either way, the future is positive and bright… this is what I expect and welcome, and in my preparations for it, it also prepares me for the alternative dystopia… but I will be putting my energy behind the abundant future

Myself:
Well you are young and naive, so you can be excused for not studying history.

You make severe mistakes here and I may fail to enumerate every single one, because it is 2am here.

1. You have to overcome a lot of Boomers who do not want you to change anything. You {i.e. Gill Yates} will need to kill {cull} them off first. And in between here and there, you have to overcome the dollar as the deeply embedded global reserve currency with 100 trillion of global debt denominated in dollars. And the evil ones control the Fed. They do not need anyone's permission to finance WWIII, they can just take for example the 250 billion they stole from Russia. And maybe they can steal China's trillion or so Treasury bonds. They have many ways to side-step the voting public of the USA.

2. Good thing I am not plugged into snowflake mindset communities. They are not realistic. They need to grow up first.

Yes it is true that this will push the world towards a new system, but that comes after much collateral damage. Do not put the cart before the horse.

Just fathom what 100 trillion in global debt defaults means.

They may end up causing massive global starvation before the old system is defeated and cast off.

3. Bitcoin is not here to help you/us. It is here to enslave you/us. Wait I will cite the whale with 500,000 BTC who carried out the DAO attack on Ethereum on this. You do not seem to factor in that the world that comes after this global smashup, is a broken, multipolar world, where in some places warlords rule. Where capitalists rule, and the Gini coefficient skyrockets. You are either rich or you are useless.

ALL FUNGIBLE RESOURCES ARE POWER-LAW DISTRIBUTED. Let that fact sink in.

trilema.com/2015/lets-address-some-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/

trilema.com/2015/lets-address-some-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/

trilema.com/2015/lets-address-even-more-of-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/

trilema.com/2015/third-pass-addressing-the-more-common-pseudo-arguments-raised-by-the-very-stupid-people-that-like-the-gavin-scamcoin-proposal/

trilema.com/2014/the-sins-of-the-group-of-posers-behind-the-so-called-bitcoin-foundation/

trilema.com/2014/the-bitcoin-foundation-finally-incorporated/

trilema.com/2015/theres-a-one-bitcoin-reward-for-the-death-of-pieter-wuille-details-below/

trilema.com/2015/ok-so-what-is-bitcoin-disrupting/

I also hope for the brighter version of the future, but we have so much work to do, and that is not a given. The future looks very precarious to me.

QAnonemo:
Something like $14.3 Quadrillion is the true number if you include human capital finance

They do refer to the populous as the useless eaters. Deagel says we’ll have a 70% population reduction… and we’re seeing all cause mortality soar as much as 30% in many demographics… stillborns are up north of 3000%… the food and water supply are being poisoned at an increased rate to slowly kill or sterilize, and the general public is constantly being brainwashed into welcoming it all

…I hear you loud and clear

5 mar 2024

Nota

youtu.be/G2UF_uRPROg
(7 TINY Crypto Coins That Will 15x Mid 2024 (Last Chance Before TRUE Bull Run) | Alex Becker)

Bitcoin topping at 79k in March will be an Expanded or Running Flat. That means a 40 to 80% megacrash post-halving. I think the timing on these alts is incorrect. Even you agree the widespread interest will not be coming until there is a sustained move to a new ATH.

youtu.be/955-DocCeBA
('Lefties Losing It': Woman takes son to vet because he identifies as a cat)

But I read teachers will be deprecated by AI. Imagine most clerical jobs will be replaced with AI. We will have Tesla-bots as the teachers soon, so we could do our own school in Mexico easily.

AI is going to change so many things. Also the looming WWIII will remove the USA as the world’s superpower. The USA will no longer be able to borrow and spend as the dollar will be trashed after growing very strong one last time during the upcoming global war. This is all intentional of course. Biden et al were selected to carry out this plan for the NWO. And all the lies about Uraine and Pootin to fool the faithful into supporting their own self-immolation. It just amazes me that very smart people can drink the Koolaid (and refuse to study the facts) because their heart will not agree. Heart overrules their logic.

The leftists are going to become increasing loony (and they will try to confiscate everything so beware this is what Communist devolution always looks like at the end game) and they will self-immolate eventually when they can no longer steal from everyone via the Federal Reserve.

The problem with leftists and progressives is they put “noble” ideals (e.g. we should respect how every “person” thingy want to self-identify) above reality and then they wonder why everything goes F.U.B.A.R. (but they are provided scapegoats to keep them clueless). Human civilization is dumb and needs periodic megadeath. Not to say that I am a troglodyte that wants Puritan fundamentalism. Both sides are extremists deluded by the religion of their belief system. The leftists always self-immolate throughout history. Unfortunately their ideals can not be reality. And this pains them. They would rather be dead than forsake their (what they perceive to be lofty/noble/ethical) ideals. Lol, the son identified as a cat so the mother brought him to the vet. Loony.🤡

{image depicting ‘menticide’ w\a brain puppeteered as enchained}
youtu.be/T5zkjRlfw70
(Cultural marxism explained in 7 minutes)

The actual goal is devolution of civilization as the only means by which the corrupt elites attempt to hold on to their corrupt power beyond their expiration date.

The sad bit (or hilarious actually if prefer to distance myself from the outcome and take a more Machiavellian attitude towards it all) is all the (even high IQ) fooled (i.e. not fools perhaps but at least fooled) who latch onto the various propaganda that pulls at their ideological biases and heart strings.

Just like the son who chooses a POTUS based on how reverent he is, representative democracy is stupid. Because we do not vote based on issues, but based on personalities. Which is dumber than dumb. Which is why democracy is so corrupted.

armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/as-the-country-divides-so-do-families/

“This is the hated that is a deliberate psychological war tactic that they have used against our own people.”

9 mar 2024

Nota

For me this chart of Bitcoin conveys extensive information.

1. Every first move to the Pi Cycle Top upper MA lead to a correction before or into the halving (which is coming in April).

2. Every time said upper MA was breached at the new ATH (as is the case now), the yellow lower Pi Cycle Top MA was very close to the upper signaling a quick move to a top— which is what vloggers such as Steve Courtney (i.e. Crypto Crew U.) are calling for Bitcoin being already in some “phase 3” with parabolic “phase 4” to follow soon. But this cycle is different in that yellow is too far below as was the case for every first move to the said upper. This strongly hints to me that this rally can not continue parabolic now.

3. Not only first time ATH was breached before halving, but also note that the first peak in 2021 was the (Pi Cycle and RSI) top, not the second peak. And measuring from the first peak gives us correct timing for this “premature” break to new ATH. But that first peak was aborted (as it was too accelerated until the 2017 rally), thus the egregious -56% correction before the bull trap rally to second 2021 peak. This seems to hint that there will be some sort of egregious correction fake out on this too accelerated ATH as well, before moving back up for a quadruple top.

4. In 2019/20, the first move to said upper MA, was following by a crash which wicked far below the lowest Pi Cycle Bottom MA, which is currently ~24k. If Bitcoin were to crash to ~17.5k after hitting the ~79k 5.3 theory target (5.13 × 15.4), then the 5.3 theory would reset predicting the projected brown trend line ~90k top for Q3 2024. Again per #3 above, suggestive that Bitcoin is in some sort of Elliot Wave Expanded or Running Flat CORRECTION from the first 2021 top.

9 mar 2024

Nota

Typo: unlike the 201 7 rally

10 mar 2024

Nota

Jesse Livermore’s pivotal points are where a confirmed breakout should be bought with a reasonably tight stop loss. Thus they’re not a guarantee of a parabolic move, but rather a zone to place bets on it and minimize stop losses.

Note though that the resistance line must be drawn through the prior two peaks in 2021, which creates a rising trend line. I reckon Bitcoin would need to break above ~80k before Livermore’s breakout would be triggered.

youtu.be/B40f5cTfFoU ← c.f. charts @ 4:39 & 7:20
(😱 BITCOIN: THE NEXT BIG BOMBSHELL!!!!!!!)

jesse-livermore.com/trading-signals.html
(c.f. chart)

10 mar 2024

Nota

The chart I posted in December on my published idea U.S. dies by financial repression, then hyperinflation, is interesting to consider in the context of the posited 18.6 year real estate cycle (c.f. also) which is the single-tool, toolbox hammer that ostensibly causes the obnoxious, narcissist Australian clown vlogger Jason Pizzino to view everything as a nail. Even the originator of the 18.6 year theory admits volatility increased.

Note that 18.6 cycle that peaked May 1989, had the 1987 flash crash (c.f. also, and gold will breakout when Fed loses control of interest rates) in the area of the cycle that Jason Pizzino thinks is impossible to have a flash crash. Note 2008 crash of the 18.6 cycle was much more severe than 1990.

Obviously there are other cycles and economic factors in play overlapping the posited 18.6 year cycle. Thus we can’t rule out for example volatility that is due to some factors unrelated to the real estate cycle itself.

10 mar 2024

Nota

Hot CPI report incoming may cause Fed to return hawkish. Something amiss in your M2 leading indicator model for CPI? We have tax refund season, recent UAW strike wage hikes, Houthi just sunk a tanker in the Red sea.

youtu.be/HMFm2yOndqo
(The February CPI Report May Deliver A Big SHOCK To Markets)

11 mar 2024

Nota

Be ready for the 40 to 80% correction rogue wave.

youtu.be/cjDgWT8BC5c
(The next financial CRISIS is unfolding and The Fed is TRAPPED | Brent Johnson)

youtu.be/RPxG4wTyBhU?t=98
(3:00 Larry Summers next move might be upwards in rates, not down)

youtu.be/ovXaIFPy-ks
(Aggressive Layoffs Coming By March, Economy On Last Legs | Fmr Fed advisor)

youtu.be/0Ct4w72743M
(New Data Warns Major Layoffs Coming | EuroDollar U.)

youtu.be/dsDksZOHqL8?t=1458
(31:00 Job data revisions hiding the rising unemployment | Ron Walker)

11 mar 2024

Nota

I can’t imagine that Mike Johnson allows a budget deal for DHS (Homeland Security) given the immigration chaos and the rejection of the House immigration bill by the Senate.

I think Biden’s SOTU speech made it clear he wants to paint the House Republican Freedom Caucus as the troublemakers who killed the faux economic recovery illusion currently underway. Whereas, actually the BLS has been cooking the books to force the looming rogue wave crash and sudden recession (U.S. has probably actually been in recession since 2023) but BLS under reports CPI and unemployment.

TPTB need the consequent banking failures to consolidate the banking system to prepare for their privatized CBDC.

thehill.com/policy/defense/4521300-americas-defense-spending-dragged-into-budget-chaos/

“In the background is last year’s debt ceiling deal — an agreement Biden struck with then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last summer — which imposes a 1 percent cut on the Pentagon and all other agencies if Congress fails to pass a full fiscal 2024 (FY-24) budget by April 30.”

Expect fireworks by March 22. Remember Greene is the one who shouted down Biden during his SOTU speech and Biden reacted angrily. She isn’t afraid of the ramifications.

alternet.org/johnson-greene-maga-hat-sotu/
('They’d remove him': Ex-senator predicts Johnson 'afraid' of Greene as her MAGA hat violates rule)

newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-admits-republicans-are-so-desperate-1862579

thehill.com/homenews/house/4406698-greene-threatened-johnson-motion-to-vacate-over-border-deal/

aol.com/greene-speaker-johnson-call-decorum-214039643.html

dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/4/2227393/-Democrats-are-really-ramping-up-the-pressure-on-House-speaker-for-Ukraine-aid

===============================

youtube.com/watch?v=n4wYfJXoS7w&lc=UgxUPvVOrVXWQhz45IV4AaABAg
(Comments on "Bitcoin - Let's Talk")

> > {my comment} Okay let’s talk. One final move up in March (DJIA will come back up and test bottom of up trend line), Bitcoin will hit mid-to-high 70s, then a 40 to 80% correction follows. Bitcoin always has a severe correction before or into the halving after the first move up to the upper Pi Cycle top MA.
> >
> > Bitcoin topped in Q1 2021 (c.f. monthly RSI and Pi Cycle top indicators for proof and also the break to new ATH now is correct historically if measured from the first 2021 peak not the second). Since then in some sort of Elliot Wave Expanded or Running Flat CORRECTION. Yes this new ATH is a CORRECTION not a bull market. Bitcoin will come back down hard, then back up to a quadruple top in 2025 ~80 to 90k. There will not be 100k in this 4 year cycle.
>
> time will tell... seems more likely we are at 100k within 3 months than no 100k imho

@camelfinance yeah it will be interesting to see if the published hypothesis I have had since 2021 holds. And yes I did publicly predicted these insane rallies with harmonic targets back in Oct 22, as well the crash in NatGas. Harmonic patterns work very well in my experience.

@camelfinance the likely top is exactly 79k, which is the 5.3 diminishing returns target for the top of this 4 year cycle. All sentiment indicators such as Google trends are at the same level as this same juncture (first test of the upper MA on the Pi Cycle indicator) in June 2019. Too far, too fast, most people are not even interested yet. The markets priced in perfection of many rate cuts and falling inflation, but the BLS is trying to force the Fed to crash the banks, because the anti-taking clause of the U.S. Constitution prevents a Fed-direct CBDC. They need the CBDC to force the Green New Deal, rationing, etc. Thus they will ostensibly achieve it instead via the private sector bypassing the Constitution. Only JP Morgan is adding 500 branches while regional banks are in distress. This is why raised interest rates late and then too fast and now higher for longer.

@camelfinance but ostensibly the books have been cooked to provide cover for Fed to crater the regional banks. This is a necessary step in the privatized CBDC plan. The anti-taking clause of the U.S. Constitution prevents going Fed direct.

@camelfinance draw a trend line through the 2021 peaks, you can arrive at approximately ~80k which would be Jesse Livermore’s pivotal price point where either a parabolic move ensues or fails.

11 mar 2024

Nota

Fed is also restoring the reserve requirement it had lifted in 2020, then is in addition to ending BTFP and reverse repos. Some experts are expecting 500 banks could over the next 2 years.

youtu.be/kJ6BevBQGms
(In 12 hours The Banking Crisis Begins…)

12 mar 2024

Nota

The only other hypothesis I have is if we take the first bottom 17.5k and multiply it (instead of 15.4k) by 5.13, we get ~90k target. It is also possible to draw the trend line through the 2021 highs of the weekly (instead of monthly) candle bars to get that 90k target.

Honestly I am worried that this looks like what Craig Wright had warned of a nosebleed top and then ANYONECANSPEND attack into a halving. But why would they do that attack before most institutions are onboard the ETFs?

12 mar 2024

Nota

QAnonemo:
I don’t see the top being 79k or even 90k… there’s too much money coming into the space, and too much money available to come into the space… and it’s becoming incredibly obvious that it’s the least risky asset.

Opportunity cost will always be a thing. Mainstream, pension funds, corporations, dowry’s, sovereign wealth funds, etc are all learning it carries none of the risk factors that a company has, no credit risk or corporate execution risk… doesn’t carry the risk factors of bonds as there’s no currency devaluation risk. No political risk, and it’s never gonna get hit by a bolt of lightning or hurricane, most importantly, no property tax risk…

If just 1% of the index makes a 1% allocation it goes to 1M… I can’t fathom the dip not being absolutely devoured and it never approaching anywhere near 17.5k

They aren’t going to rug their own ETF

Myself: (put a clown emoji 🤡 reaction on the above)
You moon boys. 🤦‍♂️

I have nothing more to say.

QAnonemo:
You’ve shifted your top 3 times in the past month and a half. We’ll see if you move it again

Myself:
I had 79k since 15.4k, just did not think would be this soon in the 4 year cycle.

I offered a crazy idea that maybe the first bottom should be used if there will be a quadruple top. Just trying to find other less likely scenarios.

I think most likely the top is here and now actually. I see everyone calling for 100k, which makes it sure not going there.

I have nothing more to say. I will go silent.

12 mar 2024

Nota

Okay I am tired of the BS. Refute this moon boys!

The outer rectangles on the Wave Trend at the bottom are nearly identical. And the last two times above the red threshold are the inner two rectangles indicating the level of crash that should be forthcoming.

12 mar 2024

Nota

With U.S. Google trends for “Bitcoin” at roughly the same level as June 2019 (again indicating that this time will likely not be different than any other that the price tagged the upper MA of the Pi Cycle Top indicator for the first time in each 4 year cycle, especially taken with my aforelinked interpretation of the Wave Trend on the weekly chart), clearly retail FOMO is no where near participating at the levels they would need to be for a blow off retail top and altcoin retail mania. This is why meme and other new altcoins sectors (e.g. AI) are not going absolutely bonkers, because there is only a subdued level of FOMO (i.e. a lesser number of greater fools to rug pull and dump the musical chairs bags on).

But the narrative is that retail front ran and is dumping on institutions. Actually that’s not the case. Whales are selling and dumping on retail who are buying this bull trap via the ETFs, such as mutual funds.

cryptonews.com/news/corporations-havent-even-begun-buying-bitcoin-etfs-bitwise.htm

cointelegraph.com/news/large-corporations-wirehouses-prepare-bitcoin-etf-bitwise

cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-all-time-high-new-millionaire-whale-wallets-lagging-kaiko

Ron Walker (aka Doctor of Dump and Pump) is likely correct that retail is going to be rug pulled again as always. And then and only then, will the institutions come in and buy at the bottom of the 40 to 80% correction.

cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-6-months-etf-liquidity-crisis-analysis

Nothing ever changes in crypto. Wash, rinse, repeat.

What is perplexing to me though is that the Craig “Faketoshi” Wright (who I think sued himself as the pretext to be forced to liquidate Satoshi’s 1 million BTC when the ANYONECANSPEND comes but he will just be the scapegoat and is not actually Satoshi) speculated that the attack would concur with a future halving event. But if the institutions are not even onboard yet, why would the ANYONECANSPEND be this April 2024? Wouldn’t the plan be to onboard all the institutions and then bankrupt the entire West with the ANYONECANSPEND to pave the way for the Fourth Turning where the Gen Z will rebuild the destroyed institutions on a new tabula rasa?

I conjectured that miners would be most susceptible to a cratered price (when the protocol hard forked airdrop impostor BTC is dumped on the exchanges to cause the impostor chain to stall, forcing Core devs to centralize a hard fork to reset the mining difficulty lower else it will never reset) at the moment their mining reward halves, because they have been operating with double the revenue and double the mining difficulty. Would the ANYONECANSPEND be delayed until 2028 nearer to the tail-end of WWIII?

I also conjectured that before the ANYONECANSPEND, there should be a massive increase in the BTC price to push the mining difficulty skyhigh before the rug pull. But the 5.3 ration diminishing returns theory seems to suggest that Bitcoin can’t assault 100k this 4 year cycle. This 5.3 theory has to break on the next cycle else Bitcon will never make a new ATH again after this cycle. I conjectured it might break after the ANYONECANSPEND. But could the run up into the ANYONECANSPEND break that diminishing return model?

If I’m correct that there is an Elliot Wave Extended or Running Flat CORRECTION ongoing since the first top in 2021 (i.e. the second top being part of a correction even though it was higher, as indicated by the Pi Cycle Top, monthly RSI, weekly Wave Trend, etc), then the correction would be completed by 2026 and then 2027 to 2028 during WWIII could be a massive runup in the Bitcoin price to say million? I am liking this.😬

12 mar 2024

Nota

I hope everybody notes that only once did the Wave Trend stay up above the red for the duration of the 4 year cycle and that was the extended 2016/17 bull run. Bitcoin simply isn’t going to do that again. That was the extended retail FOMO adoption cycle. Been there, done that. Not happening again.

12 mar 2024

Nota

Okay the first crack in the narrative that we will not get rogue wave crash. CPI came even hotter than expected! Markets priced in many rate cuts and about to be disappointed when the new Fed dot plot is released on March 20.

CPI data puts pressure on call for three Fed rate cuts this year, economists say

”As of February, the six-month annualized supercore CPI inflation rate was 5.9%, up from 2.8% in August 2023, the economists wrote in a note. ‘Clearly, the inflation data are running hotter than FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] participants were generally thinking’ at their December meeting.”

Markets are 'ripe' for disappointment as disinflation momentum is stalling, says Zacks Investment Management

“February's CPI report showed the decline of inflation in the United States has been stalling in 2024. Because of this, the financial market is "ripe for some disappointment" as summer months might still be too early for the Fed's first interest-rate cut”


Core inflation has accelerated over the past six months, potentially creating problems for the Fed, Apollo says

“Core CPI continued to decline on a year-over-year basis in February. But things look different over a three-month and six-month time horizon.

For both, core prices have actually accelerated on an annualized basis, according to Apollo's Torsten Slok.”

12 mar 2024

Nota

Look what the cat just dragged into the house— an elephant now in the living room!

Yeah baby, this will top out ~79k and drop to below 30k!!

14 mar 2024

Nota

QAnonilipino:
u think it will be like 2013-14 with small top big correction then blow off top? or will that be like 2021 with or without a 2nd similar top ?

Myself:
My conjecture is that current moon boy ETF FOMO is not adequate (general public still reeling from FTX) for a quick second top. I think the markets will shit their pants when the Fed is forced to raise interest rates this summer (or signal no rate cuts coming). Then we get another climb back to a slightly higher ATH by 2025.

I do not see any way to have a blow off top right now with the sentiment in the toilet still among the general public. Only 7 stocks leading the markets higher. And only ETF narratives pulling crypto up. The markets were pricing in perfection of several Fed rate cuts and an election year. It was just programmatic buying of indexes by contributions to retirement plans. And too much short covering on the way up. By now, both the shorts and the longs are exhausted. So thus look out below, as there is nothing to provide buying. Institutions will not buy into a massive pump, they wait and buy at the quarterly average price, i.e. when markets settle down. It was necessary to wring out all the bull trap fuel to maximize the looming crash.

I think the market structure is a need for more time and/or more stimulus checks before the general public comes back into crypto.

Steadily rising into mid-January in anticipation of ETF launch, 20% (10k) correction, then rockets on narrative that GBTC selling subsided and large uptake of ETFs. Two surges sandwiched with sideways bull flags. But now look at that highly sloped attempt to breakout out above new ATH and upper Pi Cycle Top MA. There was another 10k correction from 69k to 59k, but instead of surges higher with bull flags, there’s pushes to slightly higher highs, and slightly higher lows, with 5k corrections. This is a pattern of distribution and bull exhaustion.

QAnonemo:
These dumps are getting shorter and shorter..



Myself:
Indeed. This is very bearish. Approaching the climax. And if the trend has been up, then of course the climax inflection point will be to the downside viciously. This is running out of steam: the recharges are monotonically shorter in duration, which implies that narratives, short covering and long/FOMO hodling have less resolve (aka staying power). IOW, the market is getting very uncertain. People are taking long profits sooner, and covering shorts sooner.

Important observation. I should have realized that’s also what I was detecting intuitively. I would have probably eventually have noted that (near midnight here after long day, much coffee, etc).

QAnonemo:
His response,
“x.com/invest_answers/status/1768289298657509509?s=12

Some other turd made the same analysis as I did”

Myself:
But that's not the same insight. Might be correlated to when ETF buys but IMHO it is the shorter duration between the pumps that is a critical datum.

There is no damn way those ETF buys are natural demand. That is market manipulation clear as day.

He found what I posit might be an important pattern. I find that bouncing stuff off others can lead to new insights. Someone notices one thing, another notices another facet. Crowd sourcing.

My antennae is up open to finding data that refutes my stance.

I have not been able to validate that the ETF surges have been organic. I am suspicious of everything. Crypto has proven to be one huge scam and some of the same entities that were involved with FTX are in this ETF launch, e.g Gensler. Crypto is always about combustible narratives, e.g. even Tom Brady and Taylor Swift were investing with FTX. And then…

Only the privileged APs can rebalance the ETFs, so they are now armed with fuel to manipulate the spot market.

The correct way to think about the crypto market (and that includes Bitcoin until the impostor soft-fork and its sycophants such as Impervious are destroyed) is one huge scam. Crypto exists to feed off the fools who lose their shirts with rug pulls. We have known this since 2015 and yet another round of starry-eyed come around again for the fleecing. Baaa. Baaa.

14 mar 2024

Nota

This looks really bad. This is not being bought up as for other recent selloffs. In 6 hours that may close as a bearish engulfing candle on the daily.

Bitcoin is teetering on a massive rug pull.

Bearish H&S on the daily RSI.

14 mar 2024

Nota

Moon boys about to be REKTD. How many times I have stated this. How many of them will heed the warning and GTFO before the rug pull?

youtu.be/VysWOeE12u8
(WARNING: BITCOIN SURPRISE CRASH COMING)

Cripes even Drake is pumping Saylor’s semen drop.

youtu.be/9gFbRyaoKRw
(BITCOIN FAILED 4-YR CYCLE WARNING: Most Are Not Ready For What Comes Next! | Jason Pizzino)

My comment:

youtu.be/-15cwLQPqlw
(Bitcoin: 79k Top & A 10 YEAR Bear Market? - Crypto Crew University DEBUNKED!)

Arrogant that you do not respond to valid comments, neither in the comments nor in your video. Fed cuts into a deflationary spike with jobs recession, not into a bear stock market. If the Fed cuts it will mean the markets are crashing. Steve Courtney is correctly expecting the end of the 18.6 year real estate cycle in 2026 (c.f. your fellow Aussie Jason Pizzino), which will coincide with another Great Financial Crisis. As for what happens next, is a 40 to 80% correction then up again in 2025 for quadruple top, before the long crypto winter that will reset legacy protocol Bitcoin killing off the impostor Bitcoin that everyone thinks is Bitcoin (most will be fleeced by the anyone can spend donation of their BTC to miners). You have no f-ing clue what is going on. Bitcoin completed major wave 5 in 2021 from its inception. It is in an Extended or Running Flat CORRECTION now, which can make slightly higher ATHs, then massive corrections, even to lower lows.

QAnonemo:
TL;DR: bitcoin goes up and it also goes down… but then it goes back up

Myself:
And then it goes to $0 for all those not hodling legacy. And those hodling legacy will have an airdrop at ~79k that they must pay income tax on after selling at $0.

No man. Crypto is a wrecking machine. You simply refuse to learn.

QAnonemo:
Past models were easy, now we have trillions begging to come in… I don’t think this is accurate given the current landscape.

Wealth fund managers do not want to keep holding cash, and now they have an avenue via ETFs to stop their dollars ice cubes from melting

Myself:
Drink that Gen Z Kool aid.

Do you really believe that nonsense that spills out of your mouth? Really?

Please try to enlighten me on how your generation is able to believe this hopium nonsense? Is there no rational skepticism? Do you even attempt to find counter facts?

QAnonemo:
The interviews from wealth management firms that say they literally have 7T on standby to at they intend on funneling into Bitcoin now that there is a vehicle that makes sense for their policies

Myself:
All narratives. No actions. The facts are that retail are buying the ETF as usual, about to be dumped on.

Just like the EOS narratives in the 2017 cycle. World computer. Etc..

It is no different. You just think it is qualitatively different, because you think some guy who is associated with institutions (did you even fact check his history?) has been paid 50k to say some BS.

Narratives are for suckers. Data is for winners. Charts do not lie. The actual reality is in the charts.

Anyway, you go right ahead. Please increase your calls by a factor of 10 or 100. Sell all your assets and go all in. Come on! Put your money where your confidence is!

Insert your arms into the wood chipper.

I used to speculate on mining companies back in 2008. I heard so much BS about what was going to happen. I learned from experience that BS is the game.

One more thing. 7T will come in. But over the next several years. They never tell you that part. Institutions are very conservative. They dollar cost average in over years, not weeks nor months or even quarters. I mentioned this to you weeks ago, but you seem to have forgotten or chosen to demerit the significance. Institutions never FOMO.

QAnonemo:
December options aren’t out on LedgerX yet.

They’re available in UK on Deribit and the numbers are crazy.

Even with a $148,000 price target to exit before December 27, it doesn’t beat buying and hodling to the price target by much…

Which means, they’re expecting to do wayyy above that for the risk to make sense… I honestly don’t see where the money comes from when you factor in profit takers and OTC buys

For me, at least right now… too risky. Safer to just time my exit from my current positions, and buy the dip and hodl the underlying asset if thats gonna at least double in value by end of year anyway

More narrative
x.com/btc_archive/status/1767602151310737541?s=12

Myself:
Thank you for this. I need to jump on some puts. This confirms to me very near to a top.

QAnonemo:
More narrative
x.com/bitcoinnewscom/status/1767567223026266264?s=12

More narrative

x.com/bitcoinlfgo/status/1767560469567684655?s=12

x.com/jseyff/status/1767531434258964630?s=12

Myself:
They are so pumping the narratives right before the rug pull. Do you all really fall prey for this?

Just FTX all over again. Remember Gensler was involved in that also. BlackRock are run by criminals and mafia.

QAnonemo:
1. I don’t think all of these entities are coordinating this will to pump news for a rug pull

2. I don’t think blackrock will intentionally rug pull… manipulate the market, yes.. but those are 2 different things

Time will tell

More narrative
x.com/saylor/status/1768009710031024202

Myself:
Exactly what happened around the peaks in 2021. Saylor is a contrarian indicator. He heats up near the top. Perfect. You can see Bitcoin is really starting to struggle now. They are pulling out all the narratives to sucker in the moon boys before they rug pull it.

BlackRock has every incentive to destroy as many people as they can. That is the role BlackRock plays for the WEF. You do not know that Larry Fink is in bed with all the evil ones right?

14 mar 2024

Nota

Following up on that Wolves of Crypto video...

Given you seem incapable of connection obvious dots, maybe I better spell it out for you. The Fed threw the kitchen sink at the deflationary spike of 2020, they have been trying to suck liquidity out of the markets without creating a hard landing. Thus for example they had the *ANONYMOUS* BTFP and Rrepo to give banks a lifeline, which they just let expire. Now the banks will need to go to the discount window which is not anonymous, thus leading to bank runs. Also the liquidity in the Rrepos was drained and many indicators of tightening financial conditions as inflation ticks back potentially forcing Fed to raise rates again or hold higher for longer, as the markets were pricing in cuts as early as March (not anymore). We are likely about to see another deflationary spike to force the Fed back to QE in time for the election cycle. Your thesis that the Fed was raising into bear market where as they were cutting into prior bear markets does not reflect the reality that the prior cuts were in recessions and these interest rate rises caused the bear market because Fed was trying to drain the excess liquidity from the pandemic. The markets are now on a yoyo because the Fed is on a yoyo they can no longer manage.

15 mar 2024

Nota

QAnonemo:
x.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1768323289360011770?s=46

Myself:
You do realize don’t you that exchange balances have been declining since covid and that a ~6B draw down over 30 days, is something like less than 5% of exchange BTC balances?

Obviously the chart was representative of retail before launch of the ETFs, but it says ABSOLUTELY nothing about the supply and demand situation. This is an example of mindless orangutans citing data which they have not even put one iota of skeptical analysis into contemplating.

What we have here is simply the fingerprint of BlackRock taking over manipulation of the exchanges after their prior attempt with FTX blew up in their faces.

Could you all please be a bit more sophisticated? Is that too much to ask? Surely you all have the IQ for it. Why not use the intellect you were gifted?

QAnonemo:
“One Billy per day keeps the 20%-30% retracement away”

Seems there’s a clear trend where we recover at least 50% of the dump attempts

Myself:
Clearly a trend of BlackRock manipulating to capture both the margin calls on the longs and the shorts.

Amazingly the day did not close with an engulfing channel. So BlackRock was causing a panic sell, so they can take it up one more time. Remember I said that if the engulfing did not close, then 79k is still likely. My target has remained 79k.

17 mar 2024

Nota

Selling Bitcoin at the 5.3 ratio (i.e. 5.13×15.4k) 79k top in 2 to 3 weeks.

17 mar 2024

Nota

youtu.be/92zhKtHIRSM
(Exclusive Trade Alert (March 11 2024) for ADA | Steve Courtney @ Crypto Crew U.)

Downvoted. Steve sorry to have to disagree with you but clearly on the weekly chart, the recent pullback you’re citing corresponded to the June 2020 pullback below the 0.382 log-Fib retracement level testing the horizontal band of structure from Q3/Q4 2018 and Q22019. The subsequent move to 0.5 Fib level tested the next level of structure higher and fulfilled the W bottom projection followed by a 50% correction after the halving. Thus this current rally will terminate 0.85 to ~1, followed by at least a 50% correction. But worse note that the only two times the weekly stochastic RSI turned up from above 20 level as currently, a 60 - 70% correction ensued. You need to be more sophisticated in your analysis.

17 mar 2024

Nota

Strong dollar during WWIII will not be kind to Bitcoin. Bitcoin rises as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix only after and from the ashes of the U.S. empire no more. Moon boys need not apply.

18 mar 2024

Nota

Fed will be forced this week to take away the punch bowl. If they do not, commodities are going break out which could end up forcing the Fed to raise rates. But I am seeing Bitcoin likely to make one more surge higher, thus appears the Fed is going to make this mistake? Or would the posited final surge be due to the Congress passing a budget by March 22 deadline for shutdown?

youtu.be/FvmhbouEftc
(The Fed May Make A Massive Mistake At This Week's Meeting)

18 mar 2024

Nota

Major macro top for Bitcoin with the turn down in this indicator. Here is the absolute proof. Note this is Accumulation/Distribution is a monthly indicator, and the month hasn’t closed yet.

My comment:

youtu.be/T9DYCBL_PoQ?t=104
(What If I'm Wrong On Bitcoin & It Is DOWN ONLY FROM HERE | Eric Krown Crypto)

Your counter point that BTC’s production cost will double to ~60k after the halving, belies an understanding that it varies w\mining difficulty which readjusts and varies w\changes in price but on a lag. Notice the doubling in production costs at prior halvings were supported by a prior steep run up in the price pre-halving. Sustainable bcz the 4 year cycle bull rally was functioning normally. But this cycle is different bcz the 2021 was the final wave 5 peak of Bitcoin’s bull market since inception. Thus as I recently charted Bitcoin is now in a series of paired Expanded and/or Running Flat Elliot Wave corrections. Yes CORRECTIONS can make an ATH before crashing anew. BTC hasn’t been in a bull market since 2021 and won’t be until after the next crypto winter in 2026.

28 mar 2024

Nota

Right on schedule for the target high next week.

1 abr 2024

Nota

Bearish divergence forming. 2021 repeating. One more drive to a high, then a 40+% correction.

youtu.be/9mgjGkEe-eE?t=977 ← skip to 16:17
(WARNING: BITCOIN JUST PRINTED CRYPTIC CANDLE)

1 abr 2024

Nota

QAnonJan6Riot:
Why does a bearish divergence mean we go higher

Myself:
Watch the video. There are conflicting factors in the short-term. Also c.f. OPTICALARTdotCOM’s latest which still has my same target of ~79k within two weeks.

2 abr 2024

Nota

As I had warned more than a month ago:

coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/01/bitcoin-becomes-more-volatile-than-ether-as-halving-approaches/

“In the meantime, the dwindling probability of the SEC approving an ETH ETF by May seems to have demotivated ether traders.”

“The current positioning being so extended is setting the market up for a VERY interesting 'sell-the-news’ halving cycle play,”

2 abr 2024

Nota

Expecting ~62k before heading back up.

9 abr 2024

Nota

Might get another chance to enter long ~$70 - 71k. Resistance at ~$76-77k. Absolute possible upside is ~80k. That cyan ring is going to take Bitcoin price down sharply. When and if cross the cyan ring from lower price levels, the bull market will be back on (in June).

youtu.be/ee7IJFoDJWM
(How I predicted this Bitcoin pump from $ 69k - Next upside targets!)

===================

Panic correction incoming. Prepare to buy in May/June, as Armstrong predicted.

cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave

I previously wrote that the cessation of the US Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12th would cause a global market rout. The BTFP was cancelled, but a vicious sell-off in crypto specifically did not occur. Bitcoin broke $70,000 decisively and topped out around $74,000. Solana kept pumping alongside various doggie and kitty meme coins. My timing was wrong, but like the ski season, the unexpected favourable March conditions will not be repeated in April.

While I love winter, summer brings joy as well. The onset of northern hemispheric summer brings sporting bliss as I reorient time towards playing tennis, surfing, and kiteboarding. Summer will usher in a renewed gusher of fiat liquidity due to the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Treasury.

I will briefly outline my mental map on how and why April will experience extreme weakness in risky asset markets. For those intrepid enough to short crypto, the macro setup is favourable. While I will not outright short the market, I have closed in profit several shitcoin and memecoin trading positions. From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone. I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest.

9 abr 2024

Nota

This week must close down below $ 69k for the hanging man candle of prior week to indicate a bearish reversal in price. Thus expect the Panic Cycle move to 79k to be swift, maybe by Wednesday and then fail by this weekend!

youtu.be/vyXIlZlHRx4
(WARNING: BITCOIN JUST PRINTED CRYPTIC CANDLE)

10 abr 2024

Nota

Bitcoin not behaving like any previous halving. Indicator driven by Grayscale profit taking indicates a major top is in.

cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-run-crypto-trader-vdd-multiple-indicator

10 abr 2024

Nota

Near to an inflection point.

cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-spot-volumes-confirm-crypto-markets-euphoric-phase-glassnode

10 abr 2024

Nota

One final bullish move?

youtu.be/xN3pzJNmFFI?t=176
(BITCOIN: EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT THIS!)

10 abr 2024

Nota

My comment:

youtu.be/jWaMlIGd_sE
(Bitcoin Daily open above this price bullish! Open below bearish! | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

> > “Yes, I could see we dropped after crossing the orange ring. As a comparison of this time we crossed the orange ring, we didn’t drop like the last orange ring we crossed.”
>
> “Yes we did. But this time as resistance. I hope you understood what i was pointing out.”

@OPTICALARTdotCOM Also there was a significant drop after it crossed the orange ring. What I have been arguing to OAdotC for months is that having the two rings dancing around each other were going to act as magnets and draw the Bitcoin price to them before drops, creating a much higher topping price. I have had 79k specifically since 2022, because of the 5.3 ratio of diminishing returns from the cryptowinter to the top of every 4 year cycle. What is very strange is that Bitcoin appears to be hitting that 79k before the halving. So this seems to indicate that Bitcoin needs a huge drop before rally back up to a quadruple top at the end of this current 4 year cycle top. Anyway, the blue ring is likely to be ridden down on the inside as the orange ring can only be a magnet to the left and down at this point. As the blue ring is moving away from the orange proceeding in 2024, at some point the price will be far enough away from the orange magnet and cross the blue ring to the upside. There is no way we get a crash to a lower low on Bitcoin until towards the end of the repeating 18.6 year real estate cycle in 2025ish. Interesting the percentage of people expected an egregious crash on Bitcoin has been steadily dropping from 39% in October 2023 to like 19% now. So psychologically the market is ready for a drop to suck back in all those who failed to buy the bottom at 15.4k, who will return to the lower low hopium. Then we cross the blue ring and REKT them to the upside again. Altcoins are going to outperform on the next move up if Bitcoin is going to be capped to ~79k quadruple top.

11 abr 2024

Nota

My comment:

youtu.be/sjD1s7d2Dbo
(Bitcoin BTC: A PIVOTAL MOMENT! - All Eyes On This…)

That was very insightful to notice that triangle or wedge on the RSI, which is also visible on the daily chart. Notice also that the 4 hourly Stochastic RSI has a bullish cross up and is already back into the bullish zone, but on the daily it’s still positioned bearish. Looks like one final spike wick up to 79k then a correction into May. The measured move from the ascending wedge projects exactly to the 79 - 80k top I have been expecting since the 15.4k 2022 bottom, as it is predicted by the 5.3 ratio of diminishing returns from cryptowinter bottoms to 4 cycle tops. Strangely this top has come before the having. So what does that mean? Arthur Hayes' Heatwave blog explains why there could be a liquidity crash from April 15 into May, which could provide a buying opportunity.

12 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/6AZrzvTSuAM
(Bitcoin Price Making New Highs & No One Cares | Eric Krown Crypto)

7:44 you are ignoring the first peak in early 2013, which resulted in a 80% flash crash. Also the 55% flash crash at the 2012 halving. Something odd is happening on this 4 year cycle. Looks like double peak scenario with the ATH reached before the having. Have you read Arthur Hayes’ recent Heatwave essay? Note I also lean to ~79k first.

12 abr 2024

Nota

Only a very slim thread of hope now that the pre-halving top was not already hit.

12 abr 2024

Nota

My reply comment:

goodblackcat, bouncing back and forth between. Currently in the former. Posted an update. Very likely now a break out of volatility to the downside. Only a very slim thread of hope now for hitting 79k pre-halving. If so, then a significant flash correction is likely heading into May 1st. Possibly 40 to 80% down. If so, 79k will remain the upside target for 2025 and everyone will be shocked that Bitcoin does not hit 100k on this 4 year cycle which ends in mid-to-late 2025. The year 2026 is going to be a blood bath for all markets and real estate.

12 abr 2024

Nota

The hope for one final thrust up remains…

13 abr 2024

Nota

QAnonJan6:

“I feel like the only safe time to buy is on big red candles”

Except in an ongoing correction, it can be catching a falling knife or only a fake-out deadcat bounce.

“New buying opportunity incoming”

Buying opportunity for a deadcat bounce you mean? Not a new ATH, that is already looking very, very unilkely.

If 65.4k is breached, then 63k is next possible level of support for deadcat bounce back up to maybe ~70k.

The 40+% crash is likely underway into start of May as Arthur Hayes explained in his recent Heatwave blog.

22 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/0b_6TTpz9qg
(*URGENT* BITCOIN BULL MODE CONFIRMED!!!!!!? | Crypto Anup)

EVERY TIME THE CRYPTO GREED & FEAR INDEX HIT 90 IT DECLINED TO 10. NO EXCEPTIONS SINCE 2018.

1:55 this looks more like January because the blue line of the indicator has already curled up or horizontal. Possibly one rejection and lower low like in January before the bottom of this correction? As you say RSI (ARE-S-eye, not “Erisay”) has moved slightly above 50 but it also touched 50 at the first resistance rejection in January. Close enough to the same?

As for the H&S bottom, they actually perform worse when neckline is slanted upward and not symmetrical about the head. Thus you measure ~45% of the projected amount from the lower left side of the neckline on average, which means basically the pattern on average should fail about right where it is now up to at most ~69k. ACTUALLY THAT POSITED H&S HAS NOW TURNED INTO A BEARISH RISING WEDGE ON THE 4 HOUR CHART!!!!

I prefer your bearish descending triangle interpretation projecting down to ~52k, instead of the posited bull flag. The rapid continuation to bullish extension of posited flag makes absolutely no sense here. Mass psychology that is for moon boys to be REKTD. Also wave 3 just completed thus wave 4 must be a significant correction same as in May 2021. Need a healthy correction here, not just a blip bump & run. Also the bearish descending triangle already has the requisite three touches on the horizontal support, thus does not need to go back up to test resistance again. It can break down from here.

Even your descending channel has in the prior instance has a retest lower before turning bullish, which if the channel is drawn correctly the top is currently 57k. Your interpretation of the channel appears to be incorrect and not steep enough when viewed on the BTC:USD (CRYPTO) instead of an individual exchange.

8:01 your green support line is ~52k.

9:45 problem with drawing parabolic curves is you can pretty much draw any outcome you want beforehand. Whereas if I draw the best three-point curve for the prior bull market I get a perfect on the second 2021 top (unlike what you annotated). And if I do the same for the current cycle, I get a 79k level by September which could possibly the final top? Would Bitcoin then loiter up choppy sideways until 2025 while altcoins moon?

10:20 the parabolic extension beyond the new ATH has been diminishing quadratically 3500%, 1500%, 250%, which is 0.4, 0.16, and thus next 0.028 which is +7% which is exactly the recent new ATH. Thus assuming we make one more stab, will only be +0.5% thus ~78k. Which exactly agrees with the 5.3 ratio diminishing returns hypothesis.


10:40 granted monthly RSI is historically not overbought except if we compare to the second top in 2021. 🤔 Something is very weird about this cycle. I am still trying to figure what would cause Bitcoin to stall below 80k.

22 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/_E-iym1UBAs
(Should You SELL Bitcoin Before May And Walk Away?? | Eric Krown Crypto)

Yes of course that’s virtually a no brainer that if the bull market continues unabated from May then the bull cycle will end early. Thus this tells you how unlikely that outcome is unless something has fundamentally changed? Again you noted yourself that the Meta signals call for ~75k only has a 30% probability. The much more likely probability is that crypto is going to be sideways to down for a while like in the previous instances of double peaks: 2013 and 2021. And yes, I do expect a double-top not 100k. I would go out on a limb and based on data I have thus far, I do not think 100k will be hit during this 4 year cycle. I am open to changing my mind if some data jumps out that me. I am searching for that datum. Note I think your point samples of comparing May of every year is daft. I should not need to explain why if you know anything about Probability & Statistics theory. Other than that, this video was okay, except that you cherry pick January when the period prior to that did correct into the lower statistical bands although maybe the contraction pattern was different as well the rise first up into the upper statistical bands (yet this recent was more extreme in that regard than January). January was radical shift in realization to the bullish FOMO catch up. We have the opposite going on now, where there market may not yet have caught up to the fact that Treasury is preparing to reload their account and cause a massive liquidity squeeze. Was that elephant not in your room already Mr. Crown? The January comparison may be valid but there may be more contraction and a deeper move into the statistical bands first. Given January was band lower in extreme, thus if this recent is one band more extreme to the downside, then my expectation of a final capitulation into the 52 - 57k range could be in play.

=================================

youtu.be/jvbxqzYKOYs
(Bitcoin: DON'T BE FOOLED! - BTC Is Preparing For Something BIG)

6:00 nuance but more accurately stated the Fed never raised rates and held them high while the bear market bottomed. They raised them into bear market before, e.g. 1982 but quickly reserved into the bottom. Thus indeed this time is different in that sense. The nuance is important because it is indicative of the fact that what has actually changed is the U.S. govt is running massive deficits throwing money out the window like there’s no tomorrow. Also international capital is stampeding into the dollar markets as a safe haven to escape the collapsing global economy and world war. Actually I do not think that the rate cuts are actually bullish. Rather impulsive moves up in rates create knee-jerk impulsive moves down in risk-on markets, but normalization is a continual FOMO back into risk-on. As the looming Treasury account reload proceeds, this is going to temporary draw massive liquidity out of the market— the elephant in the living room that you were not aware of but now you are. Thus expect more downside unless the market has already priced that in?

11:08 can you find any instance in Bitcoin’s history where that sort of pattern we see since March has not been a top with a significant correction at least ~30%? That looks very similar to April 2021, right before ~50% capitulation back down to the level of horizontal support on the way up. If that repeated, then Bitcoin needs to come back to at least ~50k if not ~40k. Yet this time we can look further right to the prior bull market for horizontal support because the ATH is so marginal thus far. Thus the ~50+k or ~55+k levels looks likely? Make sense?

===========================

youtu.be/THWN2580UvU
(Bitcoin’s Chart is Hiding a MAJOR Clue (and few are paying attention))

youtu.be/ypKzHYwuaDk
(A Key Pattern Forming Now on Bitcoin (what it means))

@alessiorastani Alessio do not forget the 5.3 diminishing returns ratio theory (from Steve Courtney). Is it possible that Bitcoin does not make above ~79k during this cycle? For example, let's posit that the double peak scenario of 2013 and 2021 is repeating. So Bitcoin declines now to maybe 52 - 57k, then sideways for months while some altcoins rip higher followed by Bitcoin final rip later in the year with the rest of the laggard altcoins?

22 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/aURTnrqmbYE
(8 Year Resistance BREAKOUT! - When Will ALTCOIN SEASON Begin? (BTC.d))

There is no breakout of BTC.D on the log-scaled chart. BTC.D includes stablecoins, thus it is misleading. If I do CRYPTOCAP:BTC divided by (TOTAL3-USDT-USDC) I find bearish divergence. However for BTC divided by OTHERS, not clear bearish. So it seems altcoin season is about kick in at least for the top altcoins.

==========================+

Excellent.

youtu.be/pzEsXXgXYVE
(SPY QQQ Weekly Update | Henry James)

Sell-off also because the market realizes there will not be any rate cuts this year and interest rates have been going back up along with CPI. PCE report this Thursday could come in hot, so any bounce early this week might fade. Eventually bull market will be back on and shrug off the rising inflation, because the narrative will be the recession is not coming and the economy is strong.

========================+

Ron Walker thinks the S&P might bounce, but Mott Capital is making a strong case that a hot PCE/GDP this week could rattle markets even more.

youtu.be/MPjbDEJKhUY
(This HASN’T Happened To The Market In Almost 50 Years...)

========================

This relief rally is probably a trap and a fake-out.

youtu.be/k3d_2cPJMx0
(❌ Bitcoin: The Next Big Bombshell is About to Happen!!!!!! ❌)

=======================

Clearly the Wave Trend has a rejection and will need to come down if keeping with the prior rejections.

youtu.be/w0BYuO_FTkM
(BREAKING: WAVE TREND REVERSAL | Crypto Crew U.)

==========================

Looks like a repeat of 2013, with crash that should come down 30 - 40% and historically to the blue MA which is currently ~50k. Same as 2013, Bitcoin would be sideways most of the rest of year before eventually rocketing back up for final top ~79k.

youtu.be/tqBp9-KjORc
(WARNING: BITCOIN FLASH CRASH – IS IT OVER OR ABOUT TO GET MUCH WORSE | Crypto Crew U.)

22 abr 2024

Nota

Potential bearish hidden RSI divergence on the daily. Back down we go?

23 abr 2024

Nota

Volume is decreasing. The bearish divergence still exists on the daily because the daily close was lower than the intraday wick.

youtu.be/b1aE69UIr68 ← c.f. from the 9:45 mark
(Bitcoin crash or die out, important 24 hrs ahead for crypto - SP500 bottom?)

24 abr 2024

Nota

My comment:

youtube.com/watch?v=Ty5VdIDTHn8&lc=Ugx1qQsVstA6Nx3xolJ4AaABAg
(Comments on {Bitcoin's Price Floor Is Moving Higher | Eric Krown Crypto})

Price dropped 34% below the post-halving electricity cost in 2016, ~19 days hence. The electricity cost starting moving down as non-profitable miners starting shutting down, reducing the hashrate (i.e. causing a contagion of selling) and thus electricity required to win a block. A 34% drop from ~71k would be 41k, which is the level of support I had identified on my chart more than a month ago. You shouldn’t compare to 2020 because the price was swinging from a massive black swan crash, thus momentum was strongly up. Whereas, right now momentum is swinging to strongly down. The correction may have only just begun. Bitcoin takes its time doing what it’s going to do, especially during this 4 year cycle, it has meandered slowly before it suddenly went parabolic. Might see comparable behavior to the downside. Right now everyone is expecting a quick move to 85+k— the greed is palpable and the Greed & Fear index has always come back down to 10 after hitting 90. No exceptions. Ruminate on that statistic Mr Laser Eyes.

As for interest dropping off, the inflows and outflows from ETFs have plummeted. You are noting that retail FOMO hype seems to be subdued but the ETFs drove this rally, not retail. Retail may not be coming this cycle, because they are hurting. No stimi checks. High interest rates.

8:35 good to hear that you’re not convinced by the stochastic pivot up a.t.m.. At least you’re being somewhat circumspect.

My a.t.m. Elliot Wave hypothesis is April 12, 2021 was the top (and final top since Bitcoin inception) right on the Pi Cycle Indicator top. Since then, in a A-B-C expanded Flat correction. Contained within that was a minor A-B-C correction with wave B forming the second slightly higher high in 2021, and wave C the 15.4k bottom. Completed minor wave A of major wave B of the overall major A-B-C, i.e. a second minor A-B-C. Incoming minor wave B correction, to be followed by minor wave C completing major wave B of the major expanded Flat.

24 abr 2024

Nota

My comment.

youtu.be/DiJhfSHnFrk
(Bitcoin: Is BTC Still In DANGER?)

As you pointed out that ~60k support level is getting weaker and weaker on each subsequent test to downside. The last retest breached it severely and loitered down there much longer.

Greed & Fear index has always come back down to 10 after hitting 90. No exceptions.

24 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/qQeWAR5V6Zg
(BREAKING: PI CYCLE TOP INDICATOR LATEST | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve looks like Bitcoin should come down to at least the 111 DMA as support @ ~57k. I wanted to posit it would be range bound between the upper 350×2 DMA and lower 111 DMA of the Pi Cycle indicator for several months— possibly nearly horizontal as 111 DMA slowly grinds higher with the 350×2 DMA leveling off. This could cause altcoins to skyrocket. However, this is mathematically impossible as if the Bitcoin price does not drop below 40k, then 350×2 DMA will rise. Thus either the cycle top is going exceed your 5.3 ratio theory projection of ~79k, or Bitcoin will crash down as was the case in 2019. Or the Pi Cycle indicator simply will not trigger this time, because Bitcoin might be in an Expanded Flat correction and thus no top this cycle, as this entire 4 year cycle could be a correction. Expanded Flats can make higher highs.

24 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/JtphNHrO0TE
(This Won’t End Well… | Game of Trades}

Have the Bitcoin and S&P 500 corrections completed already?

24 abr 2024

Nota

Arthur Hayes argues that the correction is a massive opportunity and that the money printers will go Brrr. And crypto will moon.

cryptohayes.substack.com/p/left-curve

======================

I previously wrote:

“10:20 the parabolic extension beyond the new ATH has been diminishing quadratically 3500%, 1500%, 250%, which is 0.4, 0.16, and thus next 0.028 which is +7% which is exactly the recent new ATH. Thus assuming we make one more stab, will only be +0.5% thus ~78k. Which exactly agrees with the 5.3 ratio diminishing returns hypothesis.”

Even when I measure this another way, and use 350 = (2400 = ~8100^0.87)^(0.87*87), I get 25 = ~350^(0.87^4), which again projects the top of this 4 cycle at ~79k.

But let’s not forget CTO Larsson’s model, which predicts 5× gain = 1.3125×3.8 where 1.31 = 3×0.43. So that would be ~92k by ~516 days after the halving.

My comment:

youtu.be/4cJxpt7G2_Q
(BITCOIN: HOW HIGH CAN IT GO? No BS Model (Engineer Explains))

Interesting ETH’s post-vs-pre-halving gains appear to be increasing, thus projecting ETH to hit ~5 - 7k on this 4 year cycle?

24 abr 2024

Nota

I wrote:

“But let’s not forget CTO Larsson’s model, which predicts 5× gain = 1.3125×3.8 where 1.31 = 3×0.43. So that would be ~92k by ~516 days after the halving.”

Few thoughts about that prior most reasonable analysis.

1. The first peak in 2021 was hit 331 days after halving, so that would project to March 2025, with the final second peak in Sept.

2. That ~92k level corresponds well with the blue line projection of the 2021 double-tops as annotated on my chart below.

3. There’s no way to get a Pi Cycle top at only ~92k, unless Bitcoin were decline much lower than ~46k before a nearly vertical price move to 92k. So either the Pi Cycle top will not be triggered on this 4 year cycle, or the Bitcoin price is going much, much higher. I lean towards the former, which is why I would prefer to go more heavily into altcoins on the post-halving phase of this 4 year cycle.

4. I do have a support channel that could have Bitcoin dropping to ~46k on this post-halving correction. As long as posited wave 4 bottoms (i.e. ends) above the ~31k top of posited wave 1, then the posited 5 wave structure remains intact. That’s not to argue that I think price will drop that far.

5. The 2016 post-halving correction wicked down 18% below the Pi Cycle 111 DMA. A repeat of that would bring Bitcoin down to ~46k.

25 abr 2024

Nota

twitter.com/ZssBecker/status/1782792113769357340

The S&P is continuing up. There’s nothing to send it down. Tons of sidelined money to push it up.

Bitcoin follows the S&P at a higher multiple.

Mid/low caps follow bitcoin at a 10x-30x multiple. If you fumble this your fooking dumb.

I think he is forgetting L1 scaling is also very hot, e.g. SOLana.

twitter.com/ZssBecker/status/1782780116398903687

It’s just so silly obvious that we’ve hit an accumulation period before a continued bull later this year.

It’s so obvious the narratives will be AI, gaming and (unfortunately) memes.

I frankly don’t know how to make content for this. It’s so damn basic n easy it doesn’t even need to be explained. Stick to obvious.

twitter.com/ZssBecker/status/1782780614824821226

I’m not touching memes.

Making your nut in AI/gaming is simply way more predictable/less random.

Memes can give way higher multiples if your right, but it’s total unpredictable chaos.

=======================================================

I previously wrote:

“Interesting ETH’s post-vs-pre-halving gains appear to be increasing, thus projecting ETH to hit ~5 - 7k on this 4 year cycle?”

I previously wrote:

“Several thoughts about that most reasonable analysis.

1. The first peak in 2021 was hit 331 days after halving, so that would project to March 2025, with the final second peak in Sept.“

DOGE’s post-vs.pre-halving gains also increased in the prior 4-year cycle bull market, reaching ~35× on first peak and ~300× on second. But perhaps we should be wary of that repeating because perhaps driven by stimi checks and other ways that govts flooded money into the system during C19.

Reasonably tho it’s difficult applying the same model to not see DOGE have at least a 10× gain for the remainder of this bull market, if not just into the posited first March 2025 peak. DOGE historically underperformed before the halving, then eventually goes face-ripping rockets post-halving.



Everyone is really down on Cardano right now (primary because it lacks Solana’s scaling but they are working on it), but ADA also historically underperformed pre-halving and then face-ripping rockets post-halving. I have a ~5 - 6 target for ADA. Appears ADABTC has finally bottomed.

25 abr 2024

Nota

Has the S&P 500 correction bottomed?

25 abr 2024

Nota

2Y about to break up to 5.25%?

youtu.be/LunHCXyS7jE
(Rates Are On The Cusp Of A Massive Break Out)

25 abr 2024

Nota

I previously wrote:

“There is no breakout of BTC.D on the log-scaled chart. BTC.D includes stablecoins, thus it is misleading. If I do CRYPTOCAP:BTC divided by (TOTAL3-USDT-USDC) I find bearish divergence. However for BTC divided by OTHERS, not clear bearish. So it seems altcoin season is about kick in at least for the top altcoins.”

They never stopped QE…just shifted the mechanism to banks monetizing Treasuries BTFP.

Someone wrote:

“alts will probably bleed into btc until they start QE”

Again ADABTC was posited to be at long-term support:



Bitcoin Dominance against altcoins not ETH, USDT, USDC has bearish RSI divergence as it did in January 2021:



Even on the monthly, which was not present in 2021:




ETHBTC and SOLBTC are basing with bullish RSI divergence:





FYI, SOLUSD looks like ~300 - 400 target, slightly more upside than ETH ~5 - 7k.

25 abr 2024

Nota

I do not entirely trust this guy, but he argues there is still more downside and a possible contagion sell-off

He has 5100 at the max upside of this deadcat bounce on the S&P.

A horrible earnings report by Tesla at the market close today could possibly be a catalyst.

youtu.be/fLcy-53Wj1M
(Market Meltdown Imminent: They Are Dumping Everything (And Why It's About to Get Much Worse))

===========================

My interpretation is that some major economies outside the U.S. are weakening, which combined with U.S. interest rates rising due to stubborn price inflation (due to egregious fiscal spending), thus US dollar appreciating. Which in turn will cause price inflation to decrease given the U.S. a significant net importer.

Thus eventually providing the cover for the Fed to ease (such as in the manner Arthur Hayes had posited) enabling dollar and interest rates to decline, and risk-on markets to resume their bull market.

In summer, there is flash correction underway, probably not yet at its climax apogee.

youtu.be/-i1EpHofy6k
(Global Leaders in Turmoil as Looming Catastrophe Escalates)

25 abr 2024

Nota

youtu.be/bGZMLDCEr5M
(Bitcoin rejected, crypto crash and fade continues (here’s your chance) | Jason Pizzino)

15:35 All your analysis herein was reasonable, but your claim that those who think ADA could rally to $5 are "idyuks" is actually your Dunning-Krugerness. If you actually look at the ADA chart, you will realize it historically underperforms pre-halving, then massively outperforms post-halving. Also the ADABTC chart has hit the long-term support line finally. The reason is Cardano’s scaling is still forthcoming so that it can compete with SOLana. Ditto DOGE which underperforms pre-vs-post-halving. DOGE will at least 10 times gain post-halving. Anyone can speculate on what the catalyst might be, perhaps Elon adding crypto wallets to X?

youtu.be/oIWbnRrNhsg
(How Bullish Is Bitcoin's Bull Market. Expect This In May | Eric Klown Cryptoad)

Eric Klown Cryptoad, the probability of the cycle being over is near nil. But based on the ratio of pre-vs-post-halving relative historical gains, Bitcoin should top out ~92k in 330 to 516 days from the halving. An altcoin season is likely to kick in with Bitcoin underwhelming the rest of this cycle.

“Anything below ~63K & the BTC miners are losing. Fees are already bad enough, post halving.”

@Ambassador_Gkar price dropped 18% below the miner's cost basis in 2016 post-halving. Subtract 18% from 71k and you will know the likely bottom of this correction. Unprofitable miners shut off their mining machines which reduces the cost of mining. Problem is so many people who regurgitate that incorrect trope (nonsense), do not even understand the math of how proof-of-work actually functions. Duh.

25 abr 2024

Nota

34 seconds clip:

youtube.com/clip/Ugkx8voRmC6MJaX3jkM5C2DwhiEt8_ASqTO6?si=CWfCknwtqcXYt-Vt
(Crypto asymmetric gamble | Alex Becker)

44 seconds clip:

youtube.com/clip/UgkxKNOEhJI43eVCfM4NDrtIWX3AzLDnXaPf?si=akw9zO6wEHmX7FBp
(~70+% sh8tcoin corrections | Alex Becker)

58 seconds clip:

youtube.com/clip/Ugkx139f5yqusMVIMXv7XOOsz_0vsXWa6W2v?si=S7ESYHkczsoDN2KX
(Bullish election year | Alex Becker)

18 seconds clip:

youtube.com/clip/Ugkx0EzN40FtG1GCbO-Nly0cTf60VG8mC2nn?si=OJanYFR83Pz9crLJ
(Further down then $90+k | Alex Becker)

60 seconds clip (or 30 seconds on 2× speed):

youtube.com/clip/Ugkx3pqoN5zPi8g7j4tHys1dvn54_9sogieo?si=YTDcR_SSO8g70FeO
(Cardano bag hodlers prepping for the $5 moonshot | Alex Becker)

25 abr 2024

Nota

Market is shifting towards altcoin season. Remember if draw that trendline on the log-scaled chart, there's no breakout.

youtu.be/w83fsO1Dh9Y
(Buying BITCOIN vs ALTCOINS Right Now - You Need To PREPARE!)

==========================

youtu.be/Tn1ndUXNies
(The Altcoin Reckoning | Benjamin Cowen)

Ah good ole Benjamin Cowen. He does not see the elephant in the living room. Per the Wolves of Crypto video I just shared, Cowen does not realize that confluence of new ATH and halving demarcate the start of altcoin season. Also there is RSI divergence now, which was not present the prior time at this level pre-halving that Cowen is referring to.

27 abr 2024

Nota

1. Cardano (ADA) acquire 0.38 - 0.41 (or anything below current price 0.47) with upside target 2 - 5.5. Above 2.3 - 3 then 4 - 5 most probable.

2. DOGE acquire 0.105 - 0.13. Minimum target is prior ATH 0.66. Believe it or not I have identified a pattern indicating ~4.5 or more final top. I can’t guarantee that it won’t decline ~0.075 first but seems unlikely.

3. SOL(ana) acquire 104 - 120. Minimum target after ATH is 325. Likely 385+. My maximum target is 667 based on some patterns and measurements. Alex Becker said 800 (youtu.be/Vmg7BZ4LfOU?t=976).

4. ETH(ereum) acquire 2500 - 2700. Target 5 - 7k.

5. Alex Becker (youtu.be/yshWpJFQ6nM?t=1455)’s choice (docs.google.com/document/d/18edT3R24MLSkoXqYvkPi2mwx1bcjI3C6ernugLJi3R8/edit) Blockchain Bets (BCB). Will require signing up with Mexc (coinmarketcap.com/currencies/blockchain-bets/ (ostensibly no KYC for small accounts), unless want to mess around with Uniswap. Acquire 0.010, 0.0135, 0.015 - 0.018. Targets 0.16 minimum. Likely 0.23 - 0.50+. This seems like too much hassle and risk than DOGE, except this legitimately might 100 to 1000 times gain. DOGE will do at most ~30 times. Has very low liquidity. Do not put too much into this, e.g. 1K enough to justify hassle with +9k gain likely, +99k possible and +999k if hit jackpot. Personally I think it’s nonsensical that a blockchain sports betting service could eventually have a 1+ billion mcap but crypto mcaps aren’t based in reality anyway. DraftKings has a 20B mcap though.

6. …

===================================================
Pretty much the only chart that needs to be watched to determine which direction Bitcoin is going. When TGA is being filled, BTC down, then being spent or head steady, BTC up.

There can be other factors such as whether filling TGA by draining from reverse repos instead of private sector, etc..

cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL

===================================================
Ah! Arthur Hayes was close to understanding what they would do, but now the clarification. The tax receipts were much higher than expected, which has helped drain liquidity at the same time that interest rates are spiking due to resurging inflation. But that will enable the Treasury to announce next week that their expected debt issuance over the next 3 months will be lower. This will drive a short-squeeze on Treasury bonds which will cause interest rates to plummet back down! All while Treasury will spend down the TGA in a massive stimulus between now and the November POTUS election.

The financial conditions will ease without the Fed needing to cut rates. The market might misinterpret this initially as rates falling due to incorrect expectations of hard landing recession incoming, which could provide for another capitulation sell-off in May or perhaps June. Looks like the volatility (i.e uncertainty) is going to peak anytime soon. Could even be the first week of May.

I will be DCAing the dips. Likely ~58k Bitcoin incoming and the altcoin buy price targets I recently provided.

archive.ph/https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-janet-yellen-will-unleash-another-market-meltup-next-monday

2 may 2024

Nota

Again I am expecting BTC to possibly come back down one more time to bottom of my diagrammed parallel descending channels: a bullish chart pattern. Maybe not? But I see bearish divergence on 4 hourly with stoch RSI cross to downside perhaps looming. Already crossed down on hourly and nearly so on the two-hourly (tho these timeframes can and often do cross back and forth at overbought levels indefinitely).

I had shared (on my private Telegram discussion group) other info indicating ~55k is plausible. I would seem odd not to retest lows one more time to maximize fear and panic before bottom of correction.



=======================================

Very close to a bottom, if not already bottomed. Could possibly have already bottomed depending on how I draw that large ascending parallel channel for this bull market since the 15.4k bottom.

Daily and Weekly stochastic RSI preparing for bullish crosses. Note the prior instances whether the price moved lower. Ignore bear market instances, because crypto is still in a bull market.

2 may 2024

Nota

Posted this last night else where. Just getting around to copying it to Tradingview.

Anup is now seeing what I am seeing, except I think the bounce might only be to the dashed median line, then retest down only to ~55k, then up and break up out of the channel. I don’t think the price is going to drop to 50 - 52k, but I will change my mind if the price action drags out too long in duration.

youtu.be/c4m5NwJ6QpQ
(*ALERT* BITCOIN: SELL NOW!!!!!!!!?)

=============================================

Arthur Hayes followed up on Apr 25:

twitter.com/CryptoHayes/status/1783701769371185274

What games will Yellen play, here are some options:

1. Stop issuing treasuries by running down the TGA to zero, that is a 1tn injection of liquidity.

2. Shift more borrowing to T-bills, which removes money from RRP, that is a 400bn injection of liquidity.

3. Combo of 1 and 2, issue no long term bonds, only bills and run down TGA and RRP at the same time, that is a 1.4tn injection of liquidity.

The Fed is irrelevant, Yellen is a bad bitch, you best respect her. If any of these three options happen, expect a rally in stonks and most importantly a re-acceleration of the #crypto bull market.

The following essentially explained that they tried to make the Quarterly Refunding report look ominous but in fact it is right in line with what Hayes has been expecting. Do you really think Yellen will have 850B balance in TGA at end of Q3? Why not backload into Sep!

She might but perhaps sometime in August after she has drained it to near $0, she starts blitzkrieg bond issuance which crashes all the markets into Sep/Oct, which they can blame on expectations of a Trump victory claiming the Democrats need to win to restore order and reflate the balloon.

zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-publishes-borrowing-estimates-q3-which-sneak-below-median-estimate

Ahead of today's big event - the Treasury borrowing estimates publication - we said that contrary to hyperbolic expectations of 300BN in revised Q2 funding needs and a whopping $1.2 trillion in Q3, the most likely range of Q2 and Q3 borrowing estimates is as follows: a ranges of 120bn to 240bn for Q2, and 650bn to 850bn for Q3, to wit:

…

But wait, there's more, because while the Treasury projects 750BN cash balance at end of Q2, this number rises to 850BN at end of Q3, and since the streetwide estimate for Q3 end of quarter cash was 750BN, this suggests that the real funding needs (on an apples to apples basis) is actually 747BN, which is below the median Wall Street estimate

The above is referring to the below.

archive.ph/https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-treasury-will-announce-its-borrowing-estimate-3pm-today

…a firely but nerdy clash - with potentially huge consequences - has broken out within the rates market between those who expect the Treasury to surprise to the downside with its upcoming Sources and Uses forecast (like us, for example, as discussed in "How Janet Yellen Will Unleash Another Market Meltup Next Monday"), and a splinter group which expects far greater borrowing estimates to be unveiled by Janet Yellen 6 months before the election (and in doing so sending yields soaring, stocks tanking, and generally tanking the Biden admin at the worst possible moment).

We won't go over the specifics of the former, since we already did that in great detail last Friday; we will instead focus on the recent view that today's Borrowing Estimate statement (due at 3pm ET) may come as a shock surprise to the upside according to some, who expect a Q3 borrowing estimate as high as $1.2 trillion.

…

the new borrowing estimates could begin to include the estimated buybacks for the quarter…initial purchase sizes are small…should not impact the Treasury’s coupon issuance. As the program matures and purchase sizes grow larger, they could eventually be factored into the Treasury’s overall issuance strategy.
* * *
…the immediate future, which is as much financially-driven as it is politically: after all, what servile Treasury would pull the rug from below its own president 6 months before the election, sending yields surging (let's be real: if borrowing needs come in higher, the Treasury can just revise them after the fact instead of guiding higher and sparking a bond selloff) and forcing the Fed to sound even more hawkish on Wednesday. But with that in mind, and considering Trump's arrival in the White House at the end of the year will spark total market chaos, keep in mind that the long term trajectory US debt issuance is very ugly...

2 may 2024

Nota

Do you guys understand what the prior posted means?

“... and getting uglier by the day, and that while yields may drop today and even in the next few days/weeks as the Treasury "manages expectations" like the best corporation, the endgame is all too clear.”

Both Hayes and Zero Hedge are positing the US Treasury will unleash massive liquidity over the summer potentially up to 1.4T (heck the 2020/21 level was only 1.6T) while borrowing short (probably from RRepos) to buy back the long-end of the curve (e.g. 10Y Treasury bonds) which this along with the Fed announcing today they would reduce QT (i.e. selling Treasury bonds) from 60B to 25B (per month) Is all designed to decrease interest rates (especially home mortgage rates) keep the yield curve inverted (because uninversion precedes a recession crash).

This is why Japan has been allowing the Yen to crash w.r.t. USD because for JCB to protect the Yen, they must sell 10Y Treasury bonds!

You see all the mofos are cooperating prevent a crash before Sep, so that they can claim the incumbent should win the POTUS election (whether Biden does or not, he will “win” regardless so this about optics). Also this is about prepping for a significant crash and liquidity crunch around the time of the election, which will serve several very important goals.

2 may 2024

Nota

alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

I previously stated that in the prior cycle (since this chart’s inception) a reading 90 or above, always crashed to 10.

But actually the correct statement is a reading 95 crashed to 10 or below, but a reading 85 crashed only to 39. And the latter corresponds more to the current juncture in terms of position in the 4 year cycle.

Thus looks like very close to a bottom if not already bottomed.

=====================================================

Aussie Jason Pizzino (filmed at the beach on the Gold Coast) is thinking mid-May for a bottom, 3-4 months for the next top and end of wave 5 [or wave B if in my alternative hypothesis it’s an extended flat correction from completed wave 5].

His target price levels are 56k (50% retracement), then maybe 52 - 53k.

youtu.be/v21HASLUSg0
(Bitcoin dumping, giving up on crypto (trader’s response))

=====================================================

Pizzino’s hint to check the Fib levels has possibly/ostensibly provided more clarity for me.

On this log-scaled chart the blue trend support lines are higher than on my prior non-log-scaled chart.

But the Fib levels are non-log-scaled else they make no sense. So the 0.5 was hit and golden pocket (0.618) was hit on the way up so not likely a target on retracement. Thus if I measure from that 0.618, I get a 0.782 level exactly at the next expected support ~55k over the weekend!

So if 56.4k wasn’t the bottom, perhaps a bounce to 59.5 - 60.4k, then down into the weekend for the final capituation ~55.5k? As seen on my chart, an exact repeat of Apr 13 to 17.



=====================================================

Fed reduced QT from 60B to 25B as Arthur Hayes had predicted (cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave also a crash from April 15 to May 1.

Their posited BTC channel later invalidated as markets digested FOMC meeting. My 1st chart shows bounced off a key level. Possibly one more leg down to ~54 - 55k after multi-day bounce 60+k?

Interest rates and DXY (dollar) limited upside as I’ve also posited.

Armstrong said a recession starts in May, so will they kick-the-can into end of Q3, then allow the crash, which they will fix after the election with massive stimulus and possibly launch of UBI+CBDC dystopia?

If BTC crashes to ~47k, 73.5k would be top of wave 5, c.f. my 2nd chart. Even if so, and if BTC makes new ATH (73.5 + 4500 = 78k? Steve’s 5.3 ratio target!), new ATH could still be wave B of an A-B-C wave expanded flat (didn’t diagram this on my chart): wave C -55%?

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Market Impact Analysis LIVE with Gareth Soloway & DR. B

2 may 2024

Nota

youtu.be/el1Tvhk7Tws
(If Bitcoin does not hold above these key levels its game over for bulls!)

I believe BTC will pump up through the blue ring for another ATH into end of Q3, then crash down to test the blue ring or your major support lines as support into the election, then dead cat bounce to another final ATH 6 months later for a double-top repeating the 2021 double-top. I just can't fathom the administration allowing a market crash in an election year. They will drain the massive TGA instead while delaying bond issuance to Q4. Note foreboding omen of the massive gravestone doji on the bimonthly chart! But the weekly stochastic RSI is pointing to one more leg up, also that this is only wave 4 correction of the 5 waves from the 15.4k bottom. I also via other metrics have ~55k as the last line in the sand for this bull market.

=====================================================

QAnon, {5/1/24 1:27 PM}
Yeah I don’t think we stabbed down far enough for “capitulation”

myself, {5/1/24 1:27 PM}
There is a lot of accumulation of altcoins though. They are strengthening.

I think one more push down on Bitcoin is possible. 50 - 55k would be ideal. Price can not go below 47k unless this bull market is no longer intact, which I doubt because this is wave 4 only.

=====================================================

First descending monthly CPR since the bottom. First level of support on that indicators is at 55.6k.

Will need a massive bullish reversal to turn that Williams Alligator indicator back to bullish. Else it could be the start of long downtrend.

Note descending triangles don’t always meet their projected targets, e.g. 55k would be reasonable.

youtu.be/mW0so-ko6rw
(BITCOIN: IT'S FINALLY OVER!!!!!!!!!!? | Crypto Anup)

My charts with daily stochastic RSI indicating maybe a move down to 55k is needed:





=====================================================

youtube.com/watch?v=-Ofa8tkQpc8&lc=UgyPgp-STZHLVr5hu_94AaABAg

I wrote last night:

Why wouldn't MSFT just finish the move to 384 tomorrow and get it over with and reset the bull market? Also you found gaps on others still need to be filled to the downside. I do not think S&P is heading much lower. I think this selloff will be over this week.

He replied:

Me too

HenryJamesCharts BTC printed a gravestone doji on the bi-monthly. Yet altcoin season indicators are flashing and a bullish weekly RSI cross is imminent on crypto. Thus looks like a 3 to 4 month rally, then a massive crash into the election. Which makes sense as the administration only needs to levitate these markets into end of August historically to win reelection. I expect the TGA account to be drained with minimal borrowing to jumpstart while bringing interest rates down. Also oil was looking toppy, so maybe another minor wave of inflation abating just slightly because resuming with a venegance. Expecting BTC to repeat 2021 double-top then 55% crash into election. If we do the 4 year cycle patterning from the first BTC top in 2021, then the second top was an expanded flat correction to the 15.4k bottom. Then everything aligns perfectly according to timing. Thus back up again into 2025 (~6 months after August) for another ATH top. Presumably the stock markets will rally into mid to late 2025 with the top of the 18.6 year real estate cycle. Hope my macro helps you. Thanks for your charting.

=====================================================

youtu.be/llM_tGTl2hQ
(BREAKING: ALTCOINS JUST FLASHED THIS SIGNAL)

Well done Steve. There is another 4 year cycle repeating indicator that the altcoin market is about to ensue, which is consistently after BTC makes new ATH and after the halving.

Also regarding the ATH looming by August and then a 55% crash to repeat the double-top of 2021, note that if the first 2021 ATH was the top, the second 2021 top was wave B of an A-B-C expanded flat correction down to 15.4k. Thus should see a massive crash into the US elections, then rally back up in 2021 to ~92k. The 92k comes from modeling the gains pre and post-halving which CTO LARSSON pointed out. Maybe your 79k 5.3 theory top will be in August? Altcoins will moon interim then.

=====================================================

Steve claims that was a gravestone doji. But he clarifies this is on the 3 to 6 month timeframe. He says the weekly timeframe is indicating that crypto and stock markets are gearing up for a strong rally.

This perfectly coincides with the thesis that Bitcoin will top in August, not too far above the recent ATH, maybe 92k max but perhaps not that high. And then a massive 55% crash into the election perhaps mimicking the 2021 double top.


REMEMBER I ALSO SHOWED THAT THIS WAS WAVE 4 CORRECTION OF A 5 WAVE BULLISH OFF THE 15.4k BOTTOM.

youtu.be/Mgd9SC_fPtg
(BREAKING: BITCOIN JUST PRINTED BLOODBATH CANDLE)

Steve added that the simple strategy is should be 50% invested with free cash at this level. And that is if did not sell the top. He means new cash coming in. He does not advise selling into a bull market. Wait for my wave 5 to complete first.

2 may 2024

Nota

Bitcoin hit key support even though one might frame it as a break down. Including the Pi Cycle support I has mentioned must be hit before bull market can continue.

youtu.be/SUcxRWnccHA
(Bitcoin: Most Important Moment In BTC History! | Wolves of Crypto)

I WILL ADD TO MY LONG POSITIONS NOW!



=====================================================

Trying to catch up on researching this potential bottom.

I went pretty heavy into reaccumulating at ~57k including the altcoins I had mentioned.

Still have more dry powder than crypto a.t.m. and I am wondering if I am missing the bottom?

=====================================================

ADA:BTC is holding at support! Rockets to $5 quite plausible on the next leg up.



Ditto ETH:BTC holding support.



=====================================================

Why markets capitulated. More selling still to go?

zerohedge.com/markets/gold-flowers-amid-april-stagflation-showers-stocks-bonds-crypto-crushed

“The final day of April was really ugly: ECI way hotter than expected (spooked markets), Case-Shiller home prices soared far more than expected (spooked markets more), Chicago PMI puked (while prices paid increased), Consumer Confidence crashed, and Dallas Fed Services slumped... all of which left stocks, bonds, gold, crude oil, and bitcoin all languishing into month-end while the dollar rallied.
Stocks puked into the month-end close today ahead of AMZN earnings...”

=====================================================

Btw, I am copacetic with $2+k loss on the JUNE puts I held since ~50k up. It was a hedge for me. At least we were able to close them on this correction.

I did not realize that this bull cycle was starting from the first top in 2021. And that the second top was ostensibly wave B of an A-B-C “Expanded Flat” correction with wave C terminating at 15.4k.

Thus by now I am expecting possibly a first top for Bitcoin ~92k by end of August, then the double-top scenario of 2021 to play out again with a nasty 55% correction going into the U.S. November election. Then back up for another ATH when the Democrats win.

Note this correction now is clearly wave 4 of 5 waves going up from 15.4k. Incoming wave 5 should take Bitcoin to 90+k. Ethereum should hit $5 - 7k. Solano probably north of 350. DOGE, DOT, ADA et al down in the doldrums could suddenly moonshot, e.g. ADA maybe $5.

=====================================================

QAnon, {4/30/24 5:42 PM}
I want to see a big red candle

myself:
Look at the corrections during this bull cycle. Do you seen a long red candle on all of them?

QAnon:
I just like seeing them because they are tough but great buying opportunities

myself:
Was the 15.4k bottom a long red candle.

QAnon:
Protracted iirc

myself:
I am searching for a macro economic or news reason we should get a fat red dildo down to 47 - 52k but I did not find it yet. Dollar break out looks tired to me. Yen is oversold.

QAnon:
I just feel like breaking past this repeated level would cause a bigger shakeout

myself:
Everyone thinks that.

QAnon:
But somehow we keep revisiting

myself
Bull flag? Scare the weak hands? Make everyone think that level will break?

I started accumulating. I am still researching.

QAnon:
60k broke I don’t see why we can’t go down further

myself:
We have the red dildos already on the altcons. Remember this cycle retail has been all in on altcoins, not Bitcoin. Institutional has been buying Bitcoin.

So your long red candles already played out at the original 59k bottom.

2 may 2024

Nota

Looks like one more slight dump lower should really scare the spike wick lows out of altcoins. Maybe set some lowball limit orders down there.

Bitcoin has always tested the yellow/green Pi Cycle MAs at this juncture.

youtu.be/l09-yWwdJOU
(You Are Not Bearish Enough On Bitcoin | Eric Klown Cryptoad)

=====================================================

Another indication that this next leg up is likely to be stunted and USDT not into Bitcoin instead bleeding into altcoins.

youtu.be/uWlG_iQB9vg

=====================================================

Ah another reason for the sell-off. This is FUD that will be entirely erased tomorrow!

The bottom is probably in or overnight.

archive.ph/https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/treasury-refunding-announcement-461e3c8b

=====================================================

youtu.be/uquwOiLJcMs
(Rate Cuts Odd For 2024 Are Melting Away | Mott Capital's Market Chronicles)

Expect the quarterly refunded to come in shockingly low TOMORROW, because the tax receipts have been 815b and climbing. Treasury will favor bills to drain the remainder of the balances deposited at the Fed. To give a 1T spend in Q3 which will shockingly send risk-on markets up, while interest rates drop. Also severe weakness in economies abroad will probably show up in moderating inflation again on a lag. We are on a yoyo as inflation will head back up again with the fiscal stimulus, so expect to be back here again by September. DXY may breakout but that flag pole extension only projects slightly above 107. This dollar rally will soon fizzle out. You have been bearish all the way, Come on man, don't put more egg on your face. I love your analysis but you have horrible record since I been following you in terms of understanding the macro trend. This is an election year, they will not let anything crash. Duh.

=====================================================

Even Ron Walker and Wolves of Crypto also agree that 59k could have been the bottom already or maybe 56 - 57k.

youtu.be/uWlG_iQB9vg
(Bitcoin Closes Below the 10 Week MA - Bigger BTC Drop Likely Coming To Be Followed by a Bottom | Ron Walker)

youtu.be/iZM85aQl8xI
(Bitcoin: ON THE EDGE OF A CLIFF! - Can BTC Avoid A CRASH? | Wolves of Crypto)

=====================================================

Watch for an inverted H&S pattern. ~57k would be ideal for a bottom.

youtu.be/nUHIL92zUaI
(Hong Kong ETF Surprise Dump, 200K Subs and More! | CTO LARSSON)

=====================================================

QAnon, {4/30/24 5:12 AM}
Action

myself:
Yes start accumulating. Maybe going to 59k, 57k or 52k.

=====================================================

Massive retail investor funds poised to FOMO into the market. This bull market has been the most hated with low participation.

youtu.be/uT_8CdVHbTQ
(THE TOP IS JUST 3 - 4 MONTHS AWAY)

=====================================================

youtu.be/p3VGsoH-g8M
(Bitcoin BTC: A PARABOLIC BULL RUN Is Near! - An AMAZING Trend!)

@WolvesOfCrypto_ Absolutely altcoin season is imminent. Also Bitcoin has been more about institutional this cycle and some of the alts have been mooning because retail is going direct to alts, bypassing a Bitcoin season. Also look at what Camel Finance just showed that the fractal pattern since the second bottom of each 4 year cycle is perfectly matched. Thus this cycle will end with a blowoff top into August. Actually this makes sense if the first top in 2021 was the actual top that we measure from. Does that mean another double top is coming 6 months after a first top in August?

=====================================================

This got me to thinking.

youtu.be/uT_8CdVHbTQ
(THE TOP IS JUST 3 - 4 MONTHS AWAY)

If we take the 15.4k bottom from the first, April 2021 top, all the timing aligns for a top in August 2024, if comparing it to the first top of the prior cycle off the bottom and the time from the 2017/18 top to the 2018/19 bottom. Then there’s nothing strange about the ATH coming so soon, regardless of being before the halving for the first time.

The posited repeating “fractal” pattern is from second bottoms of prior two 4 year cycles and this cycle.

Yet the analysis I shared recently from CTO Larsson, suggests the final top will not be until ~Nov 2025, with a possibility of a first top in March given 2021 pattern repeating. That analysis indicated ~92k as top. Final top or posited August top?

2 may 2024

Nota

Bottomed already or will drop to ~55k for final bottom. Not going lower than that.

youtu.be/uRnElYCey4M
(Bitcoin BTC: Is The Bottom In? - EVERYONE NEEDS TO SEE THIS! | Wolves of Crypto)

I am certain it will bounce from this region, because there is no way bad gurl Yellen is going to allow a market crash in the most critical months before a critical POTUS election. She will flood the summer with $ 1T in liquidity while not refilling the TGA with bond issuance so that the interest rates and dollar fall again. Then in Sep all hell will break lose as they ramp up bond issuance draining the liquidity and sending Bitcoin crashing 55%. Then back up again 6 months later to repeat 2021 double top. Mark my word.

3 may 2024

Nota

Posted 14 hours ago.

March 2023 Fed BTFP (Bank Term Funding Pogrom) correction bottom perfectly matches the current posted bottom.



===========================================

Update just posted.

Okay now confirmed that Bitcoin is repeating the same move from March 2023.

Maybe get one more chance to buy Bitcoin on a pullback to the white line ~61k within the day perhaps.

Altcoins have not mooned yet, so accumulate.

3 may 2024

Nota

Again I reiterate that ETH:BTC and ADA:BTC have hit their bottoms. Just pulled back on that Bitcoin surge. Opportunity to buy altcoins before they start surging.

4 may 2024

Nota

There is a significant chance the “sell in May and go away” crowd are going to come rushing back in when they realize they were wrong.

One of his main points is a potential broadening of market participation— ergo altcoin season.

EDIT: his thesis is that the recent uptick in interest rates, inflation, dollar is overblown and will moderate. Fed will worry about being too hawkish [and indeed the Fed decreased the rate of QT at the May FOMC meeting]. That everyone got spooked and now the sentiment has reset to Wall of Worry. Also those who missed the bull run from 2023, are waiting for a big correction and when they realize they missed it again, they will come stampeding in. Couple this with what he believes is global economy tipping into recession, thus the blow-off peak that normally occurs when Fed pauses, before they cut, could finish in August. Hmm, that corresponds with the Bitcoin fractal I recently presented.

youtu.be/t9vNPckCZMo
('Historic' 40% Rally In Stocks By Summer: David Hunter Doubles Down On Market Melt-Up)

===================================

Luckily I bet big on DOGE and it really mooned off the bottom. Looks like ADA and SOL are about to make their moves. Weekly RSI crosses on their USD and BTC charts.

Betting big on another leg up. Looks like BTC (and alts) have broken up out their bullish down channels.

I suspect the majority are still in disbelief?

======================================

Prolly another leg up. Then maybe come down to form right shoulder of a posited bullish inverted H&S pattern?

youtu.be/GPk48h_1LGk

======================================

My comment on one more leg up in stonks then back down:

youtube.com/watch?v=m_gmshc8WTc&lc=Ugxq29osUa80T4848ot4AaABAg
(Comments on SPY QQQ Weekly Update | Henry James)

Interesting, because Bitcoin ostensibly has one leg higher to ~65-67k before potentially declining to 60k by May 13/14 or so, to form the posited right shoulder of a massive, bullish inverse H&S, which would then project to a new ATH on the way back up. U.S. Treasury said in their Apr 29 QRA that they would pause bill issuance (i.e. draining Rrepos which adds liquidity) in the first two weeks of June when they will receive corporate tax receipts, which is a double whammy to liquidity given that taxes incoming to TGA removes the liquidity until the Treasury spends it.

7 may 2024

Nota

URGENT: prepare to sell all within the next few hours or less, then reaccumulate for a huge pump up to posited necklines, then another YoYo severe crash into final (R)ight (S)houlder abyss (higher low ~59 - 60k). Then from there up, up, up breakout into June (will cross OPTICALARTdotCOM’s blue ring).

“Any pump after it crosses your blue ring may fail at ~79k and ride down the outside of the ring.”

Here are the prices I want to buy in the next 12 hours or so.

ADA ~0.441
BTC ~61743
DOGE <= 0.13
MYRIA ~0.0052 to 0.0057 (or this price on next, yoyo decline to R.S.)
SOL ~147

Sorry do not have time to explain and share all the myriad of charts and patterns: a huge mess of accumulated information.

DISCLAIMER: as always this is not investment advice. This is for entertainment value only.

7 may 2024

Nota

Oh crap, my Wycoff Distribution hypothesis is likely correct. Bitcoin is also in massive, bearish Bump & Run Reversal pattern, likely to crash to ~38k after this final summer bounce to ~79k.

youtu.be/F48GUGmvTxE
(Bitcoin Could Trigger a Signal Not Seen for 9 Months)

7 may 2024

Nota

Yup. Wycoff Distribution and bearish Bump & Run Reversal. Bitcoin will crash ~55% after August!!!

youtu.be/p3a_MOdKBTU
(BREAKING: CRYPTO JUST PRINTED BLOODBATH CANDLE)

11 may 2024

Nota

Looks like looming one final capitulation for BTC to 59.7k as I had been expecting. Altcoins may need to back test their BTC pairs at support. Also their 4H stochastic RSI have not reset yet which have been doing at bottoms. Estimating bottoms for ADA ~0.426 - 0.431, SOL ~137 - 142, DOGE 0.135 - 0.139.



==================================

For those who forget I named Ethereum and Cosmos.

“I thought of other names trying to say the coin lives in the internet such as cosmocoin and ethercoin (or cash versions). Does anyone prefer these or prefer a meaning of privacy instead of durable, e.g. stealthcoin (but that is negative)?”

Realize I was trying to think of a name that captured the fundamental concept of the blockchain being the Backbone (a prior name idea) of the decentralized Internet. It really distills down to a decentralized ledger of relative ordering of events, which is what separates the types of applications you can build on from Mastodon or any decentralized system that has no canonical record of global consistency.

============

Actually I named Iota, Grok, Rune and so many others.

Most people do not realize how influential I was in the history of block chain, also first to propose proof-of-space:

bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.0

=============================

The fact that greed did not hit 95+ on the top (only 90) nor 10 on the bottom (only 43 and always hits 10 after 95) indicates the expected summer rally is just the final move to the top with a requisite crash looming. Currently 53 neutral.

alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

=======================================

Previously wrote but updated hence by chart above...

This might be the bottom. I have three posited channels intersecting at this price plus a key support line I marked weeks ago.

1. Down channel
2. Smaller (i.e. inner) descending neckline, inverted H&S.
3. Larger (i.e. outer) ascending neckline, inverted H&S.

11 may 2024

Nota

youtu.be/jW9gfWFrX5U
(WARNING: LARGEST FAKEOUT IN HISTORY?)

No phase 5 in the 2020/21 cycle. No phase 4 in 2024/25 cycle?

Indeed, that is what I have been warning. Will instead probably have a quadruple top, getting rejected multiple times below 100k into mid-to-late 2025.

Gravestone doji on bimonthly and bearish engulfing on the monthly. Not good. Ominous warning for what COMES AFTER 79k IN AUGUST.

================================+

youtu.be/95WN_BgxndA
(Game of Trades, just watch it)

Interest rates are predicting that market crash starting in September after another bounce/rally in summer.

12 may 2024

Nota

Must watch (on double-speed):

youtu.be/ZbrNsBa6ylA
(WARNING: EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT BITCOIN 100K)

Bitcoin has been thus far increasing ~4.5k on each higher ATH since the first 2021 top. The recent 74.k + 4.5 would precisely hit the 5.3 theory target perhaps this coming August. If Bitcoin then had a severe decline as it did after the first 2021 top (e.g. that 55% correction), perhaps it would climb again for another top 6 months later again? So if the 5.3 theory resets, we would except 415% divided by 5.3 = +78% for the 2025 top. Well I pinpointed the pre and post-halving model from CTO Larsson at ~92k. That would seem to indicate that Bitcoin might correct only to ~52k later this year after hitting 79k in August.

12 may 2024

Nota

youtu.be/HbN4Me6lMcE
(Bitcoin BTC: Don't Be FOOLED!! - Everyone Is WRONG About These Charts! | Wolves of Crypto)

14:10 “the two month candle is an idiotic form of analysis”

Let's see how that ages. We have you on record now.

8:00 the two-month bearish gravestone doji (or reciprocally the bullish dragonfly doji) plays out over a longer time frame of several two month candles. It is perfectly normal for the bullish (or bearish) weekly stochastic RSI cross to dominate for the next bimonthly candle before the expected trend change (i.e. to the downside again in the current case). Also a bullish hammer in a rally is a hanging man, which can be bearish. Ditto but vice versa for bearish hammers at bottoms can be bullish. A gravestone doji only occurs at tops, not at bottoms lol.

Also as I explained previously your pattern match labeling is not entirely correct and also Bitcoin was not at an ATH during the prior instance you are citing. Thus what you can expect is for altcoins to go wild and catch up this summer while Bitcoin tops out at 79k and then crashes to 52k again after August. Inflation will moderate a bit this summer, Fed will maybe cut once, but then by September the recession will drag the markets down. Remember when the Fed cuts that will be the last leg up before a correction. I know you argued that rate cuts will be bullish, but not if they are signaling a recession. The Fed was raising rates all the way into a bottom in markets in 2022 instead of cutting, but that does not mean that cutting before a recession is bullish. Cutting coupled with massive fiscal support or incumbents winning the election can be massive risk-on again leading to quadruple top in 2025.

“One of the most important factors to consider is the state of the US ecconomy and the stock market which are both hard to be optiimistic about at the moment. We have to wonder if average Americans even have any significant money available to buy bitcoin and the same in Europe and many other parts of the world where they have had a lot of inflation. If they ecconomy looked very strong and there were a few bearish things in the Bitcoin charts I wouldn't be that worried about em becausae they'd likely only be short term bearish but the ecconomy isn't looking good at all and it's easy to see why a lot of people think that bitcoin will only go to 80 or 90k in this cycle, if it even breaks back above 73k!!!”

$900 billion extra pilled into money markets, still waiting to pour into the markets. This has been the most hated bull market ever, with very low participation and breadth. Expect inflation to moderate and cut in June.

Bitcoin has been thus far increasing ~4.5k on each higher ATH since the first 2021 top. The recent 74.k + 4.5 would precisely hit the 5.3 theory target perhaps this coming August. If Bitcoin then had a severe decline as it did after the first 2021 top (e.g. that 55% correction), perhaps it would climb again for another top 6 months later again? So if the 5.3 theory resets, we would except 415% divided by 5.3 = +78% for the 2025 top. Well I pinpointed the pre and post-halving model from CTO Larsson at ~92k. That would seem to indicate that Bitcoin might correct only to ~52k later this year after hitting 79k in August.

13 may 2024

Nota

My comments:

youtu.be/0DRxRt7LVk0
(Printer is NOT COMING this time: Here's Why... | Camel Finance)

Crypto Hayes was interviewed by Cointelegraph 6 days ago and I was interested to hear that he had the same opinion of the relevancy of M2 as I do. The “liquiditists” are correct because the incumbents do not yet have enough control to force the population into financial repression (that is coming but not until 2026) thus politically they must buoy markets by means that are not entirely obvious and do not show up in M2 as Hayes explains. That M2 no longer accounts for the fact that for example Treasury bonds are money and can be used as full collateral. I do think there will be soft patch coming after the summer final rally (for the reasons you state and Fed will likely make one preemptive cut as well cut back more on QT in reaction), but that will NOT by any means be the end of the bull cycle nor will it proceed to a contagion because TBTF banks are not overleveraged like in 2008. REALIZE WHAT YOU FEAR IS CONTAGION BUT THERE IS NO CONTAGION COMING; that is a key distinction between now an 2008/2001. This has been the most hated bull market, with very low breadth and retail participation. There is no bubble other than the bubble of the entire Bretton Woods legacy, which is not going to end in 2024 (that is coming but not in 2024). The regional bank failures will simply lead to more liquidity. Bitcoin will complete the 5.3 theory move to 79k by August, then if it declines to ~52k, then next 5.3 theory extension +78% would be ~92k which would be CTO Larsson's pre versus post-halving methodology top. That would be the second top 6 months hence akin to the 2021 double top. Realize that you are fooled into thinking this is a left-translated top by the fact that the first top will be measured from the first top in 2021, which means this 4 year cycle is not at all accelerated.

Arthur Hayes Reveals the 'Perfect Time' to Buy Crypto | Cointelegraph

6:22 Another point is that consumers do not matter anymore. The middle class is becoming irrelevant and bankrupt. What matters now is capital flows, which dwarf the American consumer. We are in a new stage of the demise of the former economic order. Paradigms and political orders are shifting rapidly. You will need to be more deft on your feet to keep up. Lol you think the greatest superpower ever can not sustain liquidity. Dude we are no where near the end of the power of the U.S. to print. Just getting started. This will get more and more bizarre, especially when it is accompanied by financial repression as the means to contain price inflation in things people use, while allowing assets to run to the moon because nobody will be allowed to cash out of the system anymore. Personal consumer debt can be easily solved with UBI after the election.

3:27 regarding your (what I think is myopic) posited parabola since ~2000, I suggest you zoom out to the entire Elliot Wave history of the Dow Jones since inception in the 1800s and for that my U.S. dies by financial repression, then hyperinflation.

14:40 we can not have SUSTAINED deflation during a world war. Do you realize the British MP just acknowledged that NATO troops are already fighting inside of Ukraine and Russian embassy told him that we are already at war. The precise reason TPTB need war so badly is because a massive deflationary cliff is staring them in the face. They will go to extraordinary (e.g. capital controls) measures to prevent their (eventual) free market demise.

16:35 indeed there can be an economic downturn after Aug/Sep but this will quickly be met with massive liquidity especially massive fiscal dominance after the elections. A key point will be the lack of banking sector or Tulip contagion like during DotCom and subprime.

18:25 why do you dismiss from 1995 to 2000 where the bond market did not lead downwards and instead sideways?

15 may 2024

Nota

I can’t rule out BTC coming back down to 59.5k one final time.

18 may 2024

Nota

youtu.be/EXQ2rSkPgh0
(You NEED To Prepare For ALTCOIN EUPHORIA! - When, Where & How? | Wolves of Crypto)

Altcoin season always begins after Bitcoin makes a new ATH and post-halving. I will tell you again! Use instead the log-scaled Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and clearly you will see that overhead rejection resistance is ~58%. And massive, triple bearish RSI divergence on the weekly and monthly. Bitcoin dominance relative to TOTAL3 minus also USD stablecoins, had already tripled topped since June 2023, Q4 2023 and April 2024, also with massive bearish RSI divergences. Thus the Bitcoin dominance has already topped relative to altcoins excluding ETH and stablecoins. Clear as day that altcoin season has already started, with the initial thrusts off the lows such as PEPE. So many altcoins are on inchoate breakouts already.

1. BTC.D
2. CRYPTOCAP:BTC/(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC)

18 may 2024

Nota

youtu.be/8G0NeXD1k5I
(Can We Still Have An Altcoin Cycle? | My Brutally Honest Take... | DataDash)

Hey this video was more balanced than the preceding one which I left you a somewhat harsh comment about you being too cautious all the way up since 15.4k. You have been fighting this bull market all the way up. I bet you flip too bullish in August near the top!

Gravetone Doji on the bimonthly Bitcoin is warning that there is 2021-like ~40+% correction looming, but interim there is a bullish stochastic RSI cross that should take Bitcoin back up to the 5.3 theory top target of ~79k. Looks like there will be an altcoin season this summer into August, then that crash into end of the year. Should head back up for that 2021-like double top roughly 6+ months later. Final top in 2021 perhaps CTO Larsson's ~92k pre vs. post-halving methodology.

You psyche yourself out at the lows of pullbacks by that large gap between the 21 EMA and the 100 MA or near the bottom with the threat of lower lows. But if you simply understand that there is no way the incumbent administration is going to allow crash during the summer before a critical Fall election, coupled with push too far to no rate cuts with liquidity being temporarily pulled away by the April 15 tax payment deadline. Clearly the TGA was being reloaded for another round of massive fiscal spending in the summer and the Fed has started to ease by lowering QT as the advanced price inflation indicators show that there is an economic downturn looming after August. So back up the risk-on markets will go for one more ATH as the antithesis of the typical summer doldrums given this is a critical election year and voters typically decide before September.

That rapid move to the ATH pre-halving obviously needed a breather, but no reason that should immediately crash into a major 50% correction. Markets toy with us and take their time, employing shorter-term (e.g. weekly stochastic RSI cross) fake outs within the longer-term trend (e.g. bimonthly Gravestone doji).

Perhaps you need to broaden your net of information. For example I read Crypto Hayes in April when he warned about the tax deadline liquidity crunch and the subsequent summer altcoin mania. Thus I was prepared in advance. I was also aware since 15.4k of the 5.3 theory ~79k top so I was selling near the recent ATH while I awaited more clarity.

=====================================

Altcoin season forthcoming.

13:07 your expectation of a further decline to up trend line support for OTHERS.D chart is correct, as there are bearish RSI divergences in play. But this is misleading, because if instead look at OTHERS mcap divided by only BTC and BNB mcaps for example, the potential decline in the dominance (viewed on the monthly) is much, much smaller. Most of that decline in dominance will be due to SOLana leading the way up as it has been. And that metric also includes a lot of other laggards which do not reflect for example PEPE that (initially at least) was massively leading off the recent lows.

The inchoate altcoins are already forming their breakouts and retests on various chart patterns such as formerly overhead down trend line resistances flipped as support. Altcoin season is imminent!

Charted your Stacks (STX) recommendation: ascending parallel channel, ~5.50 upside…a 2.5× rise off recent 1.85 low. DePIN layer 1 such as HNT may outperform perhaps 4× to 5× into August.

18 may 2024

Nota

I have too many meme coins. I need some layer 1 or 2, gaming or AI that can also moon.

MYRIA will be at least 2.5× up to 5× from current price. Note I was buying ~0.0052. It might do 7.5×.



==============================================

ElioTrades speculated that cat memes might moon this cycle, because of the kitty twitter account that pumped GameStop this week.

I am nibbling on MEW now. Super tiny mcap, and available on Bybit. These are the sort of speculations that can go up 100 times in short-order.

Also looking to grab some WEN ~17 currently 19 (add the requisite leading zeros decimal places).

Reaccumulating FLOKI below ~206 (add the leading zeros).

coinmarketcap.com/view/memes/

Top 3 Animal Meme Coins, Roaring Success or Wild Ride? (coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6641e946ee28f534896294cc/)

Cats In A Dog’s World (MEW) is at least a double, and probably a triple. At least buying at the bottom, ostensibly on a breakout. Perhaps it could go nuclear on Keith Gill, the 'Roaring Kitty', hype perhaps even up to 5× to 8× multiplier?

Even better the absolute (worthless!) sh8tcoin WEN, already confirmed breakout and back test. Easy 2.5× up to (and likely a) 4.5× multiplier. Could possibly reach orbital escape velocity to up to 11×?

Got to love the entire world gone fucking Tulip Bubble madness. Actually the point is that FUNDAMENTALS of capitalism/stock market are so corrupt, the word on the street is to make a PUMPAMENTALS point by pumping worthless memes.

Note afair same as for PEPE some of those were created on SOL(ana) so have that facet to add to pumpamentals.

Wen culture is a Chinese concept.

18 may 2024

Nota

Zooming out to the monthly time frame.

Attempting to guessestimate the likely high prices over the summer before the posited crash into the abyss later in the year.

Comparing the percentage bounces of the lows of this correction thus far, and assuming BTC will top out at ~79k (numerous indications this is likely), I compute the following tops which also line up with Fib retracements or extensions.

ADA ~$1.10
BTC ~79k
DOGE ~$0.45
ETH ~5k
SOL ~$415

This was not a precise method coming off the C19 lows, but it did indicate for example that ADA was going to massively outperform as it did.

It didn’t predict DOGE's massive pump, but Elon caused that.

Given an end of summer top, this may not be full-on crazy FOMO. Thus my metric might be indicative, as it is attempting to measure current relative FOMO and assuming no Elon is going to jump into the fray over the summer. Assuming Cardanao's community is not going to be able to pull in hordes of incels like they did into early 2021.

Remember I am currently expecting BTC to top out ~79k by August, then crash to perhaps 40k-ish ($36 - 43k) into the Sep/Oct typical weakness and pre-election madness, then up to ~92k perhaps by Q1 2025 (or maybe only 84k, then another crash post election and back up again later in 2025 to the final ~89k - 92k).

===================================================

Actually there was a way to predict a priori the eventual ATHs for ADA and DOGE relative to BTC coming off the C19 lows.

Measuring the impulsive moves from the May recovery to the August 2020 high, ADA was about 10 - 11× more impulsive than BTC which ended up exactly the ratio of their percentage gains off the C19 lows to the 2021 tops.

And DOGE was ~2× more impulsive (than ADA) on a weekly candle coming out of the May recovery plateau, which is also close to the ~3× it ended up topping.

😲🤔

Applying this to current, by comparing relative maximum 1 and 2 week candles during this choppy bounce off the correction lows, and assuming BTC as the reference to ~79k top off a ~56550 bottom:

ADA 1.08
BTC 79k
DOGE 0.48
ETH 4.5k
SOL 347

Intuitively this seems more accurate, because it tones down the SOL and ETH estimates relative to the clearly undervalued and more impulsive ADA and DOGE.

Compare to prior estimates:

ADA ~$1.10
BTC ~79k
DOGE ~$0.45
ETH ~5k
SOL ~$415

Thus buying a mix of ADA, DOGE, ETH and SOL but not BTC, should double our investment by August. Bitcoin will be the laggard dog.

18 may 2024

Nota

“Btw, HNT is DePin for WiFi routers.”

I really can’t find a way to chart HNT such that it will be less than a 3.5 to 4 time multiplier gain. Really looks like a 6 times gain multiplier, possibly higher to ~9.



==========================================

PEPE may only double from here. Perhaps triple.



==========================================

FLOKIA can’t be less than almost a double. Looks like a 4 to 5 multiplier to me.



With a more careful and sober analysis, BONK is probably a triple.

BONK could go nuclear for ~8 times multiplier gain.



A more careful analysis of AR(weave) indicates possibly a Cup & Handle with a projection to between 80 to 125. The latter is taken as 54% average extension per the pattern site (thepatternsite.com/cup.html (applied to the log-chart). I bought this ~41, so it is double to triple. Roughly the same upside as ADA, as I had previously stated.



SUPER is another 2 to 2.5 up to 4 to 5 times potential multiplier. Try to buy if it comes back down into the low 90s.

Gaming. Rebranded to SuperVerse from Superfarm.

The is one of Alex Becker’s largest holdings.



I found another available on U.S. Kraken also on Binance and others.

FET looks like a 4 to 5[2 to 3] multiple. An AI token to diversify a bit from memecoins. May come back down one more time $2.00 to 2.10, which would increase upside to 5.5[2.5 to 4].

Btw, HNT is DePin for WiFi routers.

3 jun 2024

Nota

youtu.be/R13C9i1rPUI
(The Bitcoin Setup is TOO PURE... 100k Loading)

Nonsense. That there is only a small bullish inverted H&S projecting to ~79k. Possibly it was a bull flag with the pole projecting up to ~84k. You are going to be rektd, if you continue with this thesis.

3 jun 2024

Nota

Looks to me like this week might be bullish. Although he does allow for bearish scenario, he thinks it is very unlikely.

youtu.be/OdI5eXFfzDI

=================================
Mott Capital has been bearish all the way up since 2022. Sometimes he is correct about imminent bad news. But seems to me that in this video he refutes his own bearishness for the most part? The main thing is he is expecting ISM report to come in hot indicating higher inflation ahead, but the market might dismiss that as noise with job creation falling being the main driver of disinflation? Or the market might freak out if signals economy is weakening while inflation also increasing. Is the demand for copper from New Green Deal reflecting all inputs to manufacturing? And does increase in manufacturing costs mean inflation will be rising for consumers given rent, food, services, gas, etc being also inputs to CPI?

youtu.be/8FtU72IIng8

=================================
Looks like a Directional Change this week, so that would be bullish since the DJIA has been correcting recently. And looks like maybe a peak heading into the first week of July.

armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/geopolitical/the-impact-of-the-trump-verdict-of-our-ai-computer-the-fall-of-the-us-in-8-6-years/

“Interestingly, our computer projected a major turning point for the Week of July 8th and a Panic Cycle thereafter, which aligns with the date for Trump’s sentencing – July 11th. The Neocons who really run the country, are scared of Trump and they intend to start a war BEFORE the election. They think Biden will win since no president has lost during war, They fear Trump is anti-war so this is their time to accomplish the destruction of Russia and they will create something just in case they cannot eliminate Trump to trap him into this war.”

=================================
Ditto on the monthly forecast array, June is DOUBLE Directional Change. Seems to indicate the final top comes in August which is what I was expecting.

armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/trump-found-guilty-in-nyc-as-expected/

The Monthly Array has targeted June as a major turning point this year with a Double Directional Change. So far, May has lived up to its forecast globally. When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive.



Also had the Down Jones Transport Index not make a lower low in May, while the DJIA did. This is bullish divergence.

=================================
youtu.be/JZMlKQRPnkY
(WARNING: Two DANGEROUS Signals Just Triggered on Stock Markets (first time since 2007))

@alessiorastani election seasonality points to around September for the severe correction. Is it possible this bad omen could play out after a summer rally? What is special about the specific level of 39 that has to be imminent?

=================================
Bitcoin still in accumulation mode. Thus should still be up.

youtu.be/QiVwnSxvKqs
(Undeniable proof bitcoin is being accumulated above $60,000)

11 jun 2024

Nota

youtu.be/YUKB5Oc5Z6Y
(Bitcoin: The END Of The 4yr Cycle? - Watch THESE CHARTS Instead! | Wolves of Crypto)

8:54 on your TOTAL3 chart, from the beginning of stage 4 when Bitcoin makes a new ATH, it was 24 weeks in 2021 to the first top. That would put the first top at last week of August! You must understand that this cycle is accelerated because you are measuring from the second peak in 2021. If measuring from the first peak in 2021, this 4 year year cycle is not accelerated at all. And everything is right on time with the first top to come in August as I have been saying for many weeks now.

The second top will come 26 weeks later towards the end of February, but not until after a very severe correction this Fall.


Also the CRYPTOCAP:BTC divided by TOTAL3, looks to only fall at most 33 to 50%. Thus given I do not expect the first top of Bitcoin to be above 79k, the TOTAL3 should have its first peak in August at its prior ATH.

12 jun 2024

Nota

I posted these to my TG yesterday but am delayed in reposting them here as updates. Apologies I am not so active on Trading view as I was. And will be less so as I focus more on my core vocation as a s/w engineer and computer scientist (blockchain related activities).

====================================

youtu.be/4dV-XcqLZfU
(Why I Sold 90% of My Stock Positions | Alessio Rastani)

Alessio you are too early. Nine days ago GoT pointed out that the breadth indicator signals 3 more months of upside from May. The harbingers you are citing do not have a specific threshold. They can move higher (not necessarily 60) before being triggered with a massive downturn. Selling 90% was the antithesis of hedging risk, yours was an apophenia panic. Bitcoin can not crash until hits the 5.3 theory ~79k target. Diamond hands until then. No doubt we are looking at significant correction after July or August. Nvidia must hit 1400+ before the market is fully cooked.

============================+

youtu.be/a685wUX-I4g
(WARNING: BITCOIN ABOUT TO DO SOMETHING THAT CAUSED HUGE CRASH LAST TIME – CAN IT BE AVOIDED | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve indeed that two week stochastic RSI turning down is am ominous harbinger, but in addition to the choppy fake outs on that indicator in the 2017 bull run, I want to also draw your attention to the surge back up for the second ATH in 2021 which was also a reversal of the current said situation. Thus as I have long expected that Bitcoin would make one more thrust up to your 5.3 theory 79k before a major correction, but that will not be the end of the bull market. Your 5.3 will reset on the low! 84 - 92k will mark the end of the bull market in 2025.

==============================

youtu.be/YUKB5Oc5Z6Y
(Bitcoin: The END Of The 4yr Cycle? - Watch THESE CHARTS Instead! | Wolves of Crypto)

8:54 on your TOTAL3 chart, from the beginning of stage 4 when Bitcoin makes a new ATH, it was 24 weeks in 2021 to the first top. That would put the first top at last week of August! You must understand that this cycle is accelerated because you are measuring from the second peak in 2021. If measuring from the first peak in 2021, this 4 year year cycle is not accelerated at all. And everything is right on time with the first top to come in August as I have been saying for many weeks now.

The second top will come 26 weeks later towards the end of February, but not until after a very severe correction this Fall.

Also the CRYPTOCAP:BTC divided by TOTAL3, looks to only fall at most 33 to 50%. Thus given I do not expect the first top of Bitcoin to be above 79k, the TOTAL3 should have its first peak in August at its prior ATH.

=====================================+

From [url=

comments:

From June 2:

goodblackcat, c.f. my latest update. 79k will be hit before 60k this summer. This might retest down as low as that ~63 to 65k region first. But you are correct that market crash is brewing. Stonks will make another leg up first. And most likely the looming crash be pushed out into August or September. I think Bitcoin is really going to struggle to get up to 79k. Many times it is going to be looking like it is about to fall off a cliff again. But somehow it will make it up to 79k this summer. I totally agree Bitcoin is not at all healthy right now. The ETH ETF narrative will grab the victory again from the jaws of defeat just as it did in May aborting the crash. The S1 applications are being processed.

Today:

goodblackcat, another update. Thoughts? I expect a decline into this week. I had been expecting that because of U.S. corporate tax deadline on June 15 drained liquidity. Over the summer the TGA will be spent down, injecting liquidity. Crypto always sniffs that and makes another lurch up.

12 jun 2024

Nota

youtu.be/fP3j-DyHdZ0
(TOP CALLERS ARRIVE AS PREDICTED !! | )

4:32 I think the DJIA has topped already like your chart indicates. Notice how lethargic Bitcoin is and it has invalidated your blow-off top thesis as I told you it would. I will agree with the July/August Bitcoin top, but there will be a double-top coming 26 weeks later as I explained below. Reaction? As for the recession, the timing for a massive crash is not until 2025, because the powers that be are not quite ready for there next diabolical move. Got to get through the U.S. elections first and all that orangeutan soap opera first. Need Pootin to retaliate directly against NATO first. Just wait. You are too impatient. 18.6 year real estate cycle does not end until 2025/26. This end game in 2025/26 is for all the marbles. They not going to let a little recession mess it up.

I do not think the dollar is coming that much lower either.

Camel, I wrote on Wolves of Crypto’s video from ~20 hours ago the following.

==================================

Still have one more wave 5 up which will finally break above that downtrend overhead resistance.

youtu.be/AcofomwQJiU
(What Bitcoin's DROP Today Means (and what needs to happen) | Alessio Rastani)

If wave 5 will be the same length as wave 3, that projects to ~77k.

=============================================

youtu.be/vcWKdw3zU9A
(Everything's screaming crash for bitcoin. However... | OPTICALARTdotCOM)

11:30 look the last time crossed the blue ring 5 weeks sideways, then one week bull trap failed rally, back down to retest horizontal ring break price, then finally the significant pump over the next couple of months. Expect ~79k top in July/Aug, then for the price to come back to at least test ring break level of 67k, but perhaps all the way down to test the ring as support by Fall! So that could be as low as ~43k or perhaps even your 33k! Then finally that pump back up.

Why? Bcz if measure from the first top in 2021, then Bitcoin is not accelerated in its 4 year cycle. So Bitcoin is making its first top to mimic 2021. Notice how each new ATH since the first one in 2021 is only ~4.5k higher. Thus the final top of the 4 year cycle should come ~26 weeks after the looming top in July/Aug w\a severe intervening correction. Also even your overextended chart indicates a July/August top as well. Hope it helps.

Also I would not get too worried as long as Bitcoin stays above ~65k on a daily close (intraday wicks to ~64.5k are okay) because as Alessio explained today that is just an A-B-C expanded flat correction for the wave 4 from the recent ~72k level, with wave 5 still incoming to ~77 to 80k. Interesting that the blue ring support is currently ~65k also! Bingo!

Also your looming red ring cross for Nvidia signaling a huge drop after a final pump to ~137 to 152 which is roughly the top price I was already targeting for Nvidia (times ten before the stock split).

=======================================

youtu.be/3ATOly2y0VE
(Bitcoin Stalls at CRITICAL Level - WILL IT BREAKOUT ?? | Camel Finance)

I can now confirm with v.h.p. (very high probability) that the Bitcoin top will be in July/August ~78 to 79k. Nvidia will not exceed 160. Massive crash in the Fall, followed by another rally with the second ATH top for Bitcoin in Feb/March 2025 (and as historically the S&P will peak later). Mark my word Camel. Will you admit I was correct after the fact or not? I am looking at many different data points and concepts which you are not. Can you not see that the rally off 57k is a 4 wave structure already and currently in a mini-expanded flat correction for wave 4. With wave 5 to top out ~77k if wave 5 is same length as wave 3? According to Elliot Wave theory, Bitcoin price must not close daily below 65k (as it would cross back down in wave 2), else this will all be invalidated and the top is already in.

7:50 btw I was also expecting a cycle low mid-June because the June 15 corporate tax deadline in the U.S. is a drain on liquidity as it is filling the TGA. As the TGA is spent down (buying back long-bonds and fiscal expenditures) this will inject the liquidity for this final rally. The final move up with be underwhelming for Bitcoin. As for your 3rd angle thesis, I refuted that previously for Bitcoin historically it looks only like a final slight deviation from the 2nd angle, with no really well defined 3rd angle phase.

9:10 GoT had also recently (~ 2 weeks ago) said the recently widening breadth was the signal that stonks should be up ~3 more months historically.

13:24 a thesis against your parabolic blowoff top for Bitcoin is that the current cup pattern only projects up to ~80k. The prior years did not have this dominant cup structure around the ATH, instead were bull flags. As I posited on your video from a day ago (citing what I said to Wolves of Crypto), that if we measure from start of that choppiness around the new ATH to the 2021 first top, then the first top of this 4 year cycle would be in ~6 weeks from now. I had another measurement indicating out to possibly at the latest the last week of August. By looking at the Bitcoin dominance relative to TOTAL3, and assuming Bitcoin will top ~79k, TOTAL3 will only reach its prior ATH, which will still be more upside than Bitcoin. Thus the parabolic-like blowoff top move will be in altcoins, not Bitcon. But rotation might be severe with some altcoins popping off and fading quickly into topping tails as the very limited liquidity this cycle hunts the next altcoin that didn’t spike up yet. Analogous to breadth concentration in the stonks, we will need to stay with the altcoin leaders else we will be playing a rapid-fire game of whac-a-mole. This is not a buy and hold a basket season.

12 jun 2024

Nota

youtu.be/DDyhCLWhBTg
(WARNING: BITCOIN CALM B4 STORM – EXPLOSION COMING | Crypto Crew U.)

Steve you missed something very important on this Historical Volatility chart if one studies themselves on trading view. You are correct that Bitcoin tends to decline from high levels of volatility and rally from low levels. However, look what happened in late 2019 into the 2020 flash crash where the high was at somewhat low levels of volatility and the crash was a massive spike up in volatility. And as you have stated before that descending triangle for the historic volatility indicator has to break up or down soon as so near to the apex.

Thus this indicates a feeble rally to ~79k then a flash crash into Fall with the historical volatility indicator breaking out to the upside of the descending triangle! OMG! This will also match the declining/diminishing Fib levels of the tops in each 4 year cycle, and this phase 3 topping out at the current Fib level (with a slight wick above) and then crashing due to that bimonthly gravestone doji! Do not worry, there will be a second top again (like 2021) in Q1 2025 after a massive correction this Fall. And you will need to stop telling your subscriptions hodl when a massive correction is looming after August.

=================================+

Cycle theory lows projects the markets will find a low tomorrow.

youtu.be/mYMNwNtFVtE
(This Video Will Give You an Advantage Over The Markets | Camel Finance)

Agree with this. And I have no idea what the CPI print will be and agree it does not matter. However, I do know what price Bitcoin will top. There are so many confluences of metrics pointing to 79k.

Again I want to clarify that I agree with a slight in inflation this Fall, but the problem for your thesis of the end of the bull market in 2024 (instead of just a severe correction) and ongoing deflation/disinflation is that the fiscal and monetary brrr bazookas will come out sooner and faster, and perhaps more importantly NATO directly at war with tin likely by September. War is very inflationary because redirects industry and supply chains to the war.

19:00 kudos on finding that chart! But what about the second 2021 top?

20:22 again I repeat myself, can you not see the diminishing factor (i.e. a 7.7 multiple) of blowoff after ATH? Indicates 85k max. If I compare the ratio of percents for each 4-year cycle from low to prior ATH and from there to new ATH top, I get a diminishing factor that indicates ~10% above prior 2021 ATH for the incoming top!

23:20 even you will not be able to deal with some black swan, rogue wave Bitcoin parabolic blowoff. Where would you take profits? I have no reasonable area above 80 - 90k to take profits. Anyway, it will not happen.

24:00 why are you ignoring that the chart you cited is telling you that there is no parabolic blowoff top coming and we are very near to the top?

======================================

Excellent timely video. Watch on double-speed playback.

youtu.be/VHDyd5RpqI0
(Bitcoin: Most Are WRONG About This Move - BTC Needs To BOUNCE! | Wolves of Crypto)

That apophenia of a "double-top" is an A-B-C expanded flat for wave 4 of a 5 wave move up to ~77k coming off the 57k low. Alessio Rastani pointed this out today. The invalidation level is ~65k on a daily close.

===========================+

youtu.be/C-j3GvJXzKE
(This Is The BIGGEST Trap I've Seen In My 6 Years In Crypto | Miles Deutscher)

I remember that same frustration about altcoins not rally when Bitcoin was moving up aggressively in late 2020. The difference this time is that as your pointed out by citing the dismal OTHERS chart, that very few altcoins are performing well even as Bitcoin has reached the ATH and halving has passed, which normally signals the start of an altcoin market. But those events came prematurely this 4-year cycle if measured from the second 2021 top, but right on time if measured from the first 2021 top. However it does look like Bitcoin dominance (and even relative to TOTAL3 to remove stablecoins) has peaked and is overdue for run over the next couple of months for a mini-altcoin season.

Altcoins are relatively weak because liquidity is so poor. Ditto the lack of breadth in stonks. The public is fearful and cautious now, after dumping their stimi check load in 2021 and being wiped hodling into the FTX collapse. The BTC ETF narrative was driving the only FOMO of this bull market thus far. But now we have the ETH ETF on tap to drive some altcon FOMO.

EDIT: I wrote the above before watching. Finished watching and you made the same points. I agree that egregious token issuance is another factor. Thus there must be a Schelling point around buy the top coins only and thus memes as they are already fully diluted and there is nothing to research about them just follow the leader blindly.

12 jun 2024

Nota

C.f. the S&P 500 and Nvidia topping targets charts from ~17 mins forward. Very near to the top in stonks.

youtu.be/SvDqKAkK1uI
(A Bitcoin Collapse Is Imminent | The Brutal Truth You Need To Hear... | DataDash)

================================

youtu.be/rrhcX-Wrkao
(S&P 500 Update (SPY, QQQ, CPI Prep!) | Henry James)

🚀June 15 also a cycle low for S&P, corporate tax deadline which has been draining liquidity into TGA past week or two. Up we go!

-----

Do not take this the wrong way. Bitcoin and stonks could possibly still make one more wick down, and remember corporate tax deadline is June 15 in USA. Tomorrow is only June 12.

You can start nibbling and accumulating but be skeptical about sudden turn. I would though buy more heavily any wick down this week. Remember Bitcoin targets are possibly as low as (the line in the sand that must not be breached) 64.5k on a wick but daily closed must stay above ~65 to 66k.

We are very near to a bottom. I thought ONDO was already breaking up out of its bear flag on the way up to 1.60/1.70 then $2+, but looks like it is still within the downtrending flag yet. If it breaks above ~1.30 on a 4+ hourly close (especially a 12 or daily), then it has likely bottomed for sure.

Stick with quality altcoins on this next up phase. Btw, Jim Cramer mentioned a BONK ETF to SEC chair Gensler on national TV this past week!

MYRIA and SUPER for example shit their plans and I am staying away from these more obscure ones this next time. This is not the time for extreme gambling and extreme gains hopium. Be thankful for the safer plays and what we can get over the next 6 weeks or so.

===============================

youtu.be/q64EppNJnqY
(Bitcoin: PUMPS RIGHT ON TIME !! | Camel Finance)

Well I blogged in 2018 on Steemit that Bitcoin was rising BECAUSE land was becoming worthless. Note the causality. As robotics drives the cost of production towards 0, drone attacks on individuals become indefensible, bankrupted govts unable to print money anymore because Bitcoin is the global reserve currency and thus property taxes as essentially confiscation/nationalization with most already dispossessed thus no popular resistance, no debt pulling income forwards thirty years to overvalue land, most of us will have no choice but to huddle into the vertical Jetson sh8ties. Can you afford your own complex radar and laser drone protection system for your rural land plot?

As I was essentially pointing out in 2013 in my Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch, that be careful what you cheer and wish for, because you might just get it.

2:07 that tweeted interpretation does not quite reflect comparative reality of Nov/Dec 2020 to Apr/May/Jun 2024. Firstly, the backtest during week of Dec 21, 2020 was already completed during the week of Apr 8, 2024. Secondly the FOMO for altcoins did not start until Musk went all in on DOGE on Twitter on Dec 20, with the fledgling inertia from his tweet taking a week to digest and by Jan 2021 there was a retail GameStop Reddit brigade social collective investment movement underway, c.f. Elon and Doge: A Timeline. Point being that Bitcoin had been ripping since the corona with nary a pause of significance unlike this current, monotonous "watching paint dry" sideways movement for months ABOVE the ATH. The smallish pause in Nov/Dec 2020 was BELOW the ATH. Also the Fib levels of these pauses are distinct. So the structure and timing are different as well, with the backtest already completed and Bitcoin is not parabolic and WILL NOT be parabolic (despite your indefensible fantasies which you avoid steelmanning the cogent counter points that had been leveled against your expectation, instead preferring to argue against weaker strawmen instead in your presentation). All the retail inertia (what little of it there is remaining after FTX and high interest rates bleeding out) will be focused on the (comparatively weak) Q2/Q3 ETH ETF impetus which is akin to the Musk+Gamestop FOMO from Q1 2021. You should know with your science background that you should look for all possible alternative explanations and essentially attempt to falsify our hypotheses. I am paying close attention to any strong points you make and assimilating them into what I hope will be a holistic thesis.

Btw, BTC.D has likely topped. Draw the overhead trendline resistance across the highs on the log-scaled chart.

(…continued below…)

12 jun 2024

Nota

(…continued from above…)

2:45 that Bitcoin chart does not look bullish at all. What are you smoking dude? There was a horrific Gravestone doji on the bimonthly chart that is portending a massive crash. Something hovered for weeks and months is rolling over, not bull flagging. In prior bull markets Bitcoin shot right on through as the momentum was too intense. There's very weak momentum because liquidity is drying up all over the planet, as you readily admit as part of your thesis for what comes soon with a massive correction. You even noted that the BTC ETH inflows are being negated by matching short positions. Your hypothesis is that might lead to a short squeeze but what if instead there is no other liquidity to kickstart the squeeze and instead it ends up as proper hedge as Bitcoin declines back to 34 - 47k by Q4? There will likely be a bull trap move up to ~77k to take out the retail shorts and flip retail long at the top before fleecing them yet again with a crash. Heck there will be very little retail remaining by the time we get to the final double-top in 2025, except that the government might be handing out stimi checks again but with strings attached perhaps (CBDC launch is some nations perhaps). We are headed into very strange times, which is actually a Chinese proverb in the form of a curse.

3:47 regarding this MRRV it is the same diminishing returns argument I made on your prior one (and others prior) which afaict you either seem to be ignoring or YT is censoring and you are not seeing them perhaps. Anyway, clearly the looming further leg up as compared to the leg from June 2017 to Dec 2017 and Jan 2021 to Feb/Mar 2021, must acknowledge that the latter was tiny compared to the former. Thus the looming leg up will be absolutely minuscule.

4:45 kudos I see you picked up on my point from prior video(s) about the Treasury buybacks distributing net liquidity out of the TGA once the corporate tax deadline of June 15 stops sending liquidity into the TGA. Btw I would absolutely love a Bitcoin parabolic move now. I am resigned to the fact I will not get my wish. It is not some aversion to it. You might be lumping me in with the herd. I did publicly (my trading view) call the Bitcoin bottom at precisely 15.4k and I identified the Shark and other harmonic patterns back in Oct 2022 stating S&P to 4950 and Ethereum to 3200. I did not expect the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETHs though, because my mind was off on other things the intervening time.

8:00 regarding retail pyschology and your parabolic blowoff top thesis for the S&P 500, retail simply does not have the fuel right now. That is another reason this looming top and crash will not be the final top, which instead will come in 2025 after the election when the truly dystopian crap can ensue. C.f. for example Morningstar’s, “Individual stocks are increasingly going their own way” and “Dow trails Nasdaq by most in a year. What it means for the stock market.” While breadth has been improving slightly (and indicates a final topping action underway over next couple of months), it reflects more of smart rotation (i.e. rejecting some sectors entiring for those that have an AI derivative narrative, e.g. utilities and electricity) than blindfolded retail throwing spaghetti at wall and taking swings at the piñata. Note your recent T/A video with your collegue that pointed out that Nvidia is very near to its final top in the (post-split) ~130 to 150 range. One of those Morningstar articles explains why the DJIA is not reflecting reality and thus might not make a new ATH in Jul/Aug, even if the Nasdaq does.

8:35 yeah that is what a textbook left-translated cycle would look like IF there is a parabolic blowoff top, but there will not be. Thus instead we will get the 2021 double-top repeated with an intervening ~55% correction. And the double-top will not look like your 8:25 because again there will not be any parabolic move here and now. The Jul/Aug top will be ~80k more or less. Btw, I do not dislike the thumbnail. What I dislike is a total lack of acknowledgement in the presentation of the argument that there will be top ~80k with a 55% correction and second top ~90k in Q1 2025. You continue to only present rollover or parabolic, and not another scenario. Is that tranparency and fair to your audience? I do not care if you recognize me. I have been banned from almost every social media platform. Such is life.

10:45 why do you assume the 2Y yield has to come down while the Treasury unleashes liquidity by selling short bonds to buy long bonds? 10Y can come down while the 2Y levitates, until the crash this Fall.

P.S. I think I have made my points. Have other more important things to do. Good luck Camel. I will be back to tell you I told you so, or to admit I was wrong.

12 jun 2024

Nota

youtube.com/watch?v=mYMNwNtFVtE&lc=UgzVs1js1MgZaVOQhTV4AaABAg.A4ZFn_rud_IA4_P3fnzYf4

“U lost me at ‘I do know what price btc will top’”

@camelfinance I am a s/w engineer since age 13 in 1978. I apply a technique known roughly as fuzzy logic. It is not fool-proof, but the more data points I integrate the more confidence (although that can blow-up of course by missing one key factor), and that is bolstered if I am eagerly/sincerely searching for falsification (which is why for example I appreciate your videos and did learn more about the small cycles in markets and the left-translated thesis from you).

The numerous factors pointing to a 79k top including Steve Courtney’s 5.3 diminishing theory backtested to prior four year cycles (and note I also mention Camel Finance on other channels w.r.t. your cycle analysis), as well his point that each top has been at a lower Fib level, indicating that Bitcoin is right at the top now with only an inter-month wick up possibly (he is open to that being invalidated but there are so many other confluences indicating it will not be including very odd things going on with the RS and Historic Volatility which is in a Descending triangle since Bitcoin's inception near to the apex currently). Also Alessio Rastani just identified that Bitcoin's move off the 57k low appears to be a 5 wave structure with 3 waves completed and an A-B-C expanded flat completing now for wave 4, with wave 5 up to come, this can not possibly be parabolic. If wave 5 is not the longest wave and matches the length of wave 3, that indicates a 77k top. wave can not be more than 1.618 times wave 3 in any case.

Oh and as Gareth Soloway pointed out that each ensuing ATH since the first 2021 top has been 4.5k higher than the prior. Maybe I have apophenia though?

I could rattle on about confluences which are screaming at me from every mountain top. I am ostensibly your canary in the coalmine and hopefully not the idiot thorn screaming from some need to be correct. I just can not find much support for the parabolic blowoff. The Treasury is not doing some massive TGA draw down, just a meager one. Afaik, they will be selling 2Y bonds also while buying 10Y. Where is the fuel coming from? Even your own colleague recently suggested to you that Nvidia was near a top. You want the blowoff top now, but I do not see the market forces for it. Retail is mostly absent.

I could be wrong. Am I really mucking up the probabilities with confirmation bias?

Best of luck to you bro. I will go dark for a while. Cya. Cheers.

12 jun 2024

Nota

youtu.be/9G1uWJJg2co
(Everyone is wrong about 100k bitcoin | Camel Finance)

OMG, you suggested I take a look at this video, as if this is some sober, cogent refutation of the 5.3 theory. This video is absolute trash. Your points are essentially: 1) the ratio is not precisely 5.3 to the second decimal point (then you admit it makes no difference, lol), 2) the first cycle’s start point was arbitrarily chosen when the entire thesis is to take the low from the PRIOR ATH (and the only possible prior ATH on the chart was where he placed the low, 3) a diminishing returns the is nonsense because you say so, and 4) that a triple top must be symmetric in period and amplitude having a shared neckline. As for your 4th point, there is another Elliot Wave pattern that could be in play with allows for a non-symmetric higher-high for wave B that is actual an Expanded Flat A-B-C correction. I have been posited that for over a year now. In fact, I predicted on my public trading view the 2021 double-top as the first top was forming (and the top level) by applying a fractal geometry of trend lines and pattern from the 2017/18 top and June 2019 double-top (yes that was the first case of a double-top but people were not paying attention, but I was). See the first top in 2021 was the end of MAJOR wave 5 for Bitcoin which ended Bitcoin’s bull market logistic S-curve adoption since inception in 2009. Thus the second top in 2021 was an Expanded Flat wave B. Now we appear to be in a larger Expanded Flat that encompasses that inner one, i.e. this looming Jul/Aug top with me wave B of the Expanded Flat, then another inner expanded flat will take it down this fall with wave B coming up for a quadruple top in Q1 2025. My narrative for all this is that Bitcoin is shifting adoption from the FOMO driven retail, to the next stage which is onboarding all the institutions onto ETFs so they can be fleeced “poof its gone” by the looming anyone can spend Nash equilibrium restoration perhaps at the 2028 halving. And as you noted the BTC ETFs are providing no net flows as they are offset by short positions. Remember the Jan 1988 Economic Magazine cover story preannounced that the Phoenix would arrive in earnest by 2018, which is exactly when Bitcoin burst onto the global FOMO scene. The design was actually leaked anonymously in 1998/9. And the launch was 2008/9 and then the final move to emerge from ashes in 2028. Note the 10 year cycle.

Also Steve did not commit to the 5.3 theory as gospel. He stated numerous times since that not one any one theory can supercede all other facts in the charts. But hence has sound a ominous Gravestone doji on the bimonthly chart, strange RSI pattern and even the diminish Fib level of the top of each 4 year cycle all pointing to this currently level being the top more or less other than an intra-month spike up to ~80k.

Also I have been pointing out to you that there are diminishing returns on several Bitcoin and Total market cap related charts you have been citing more recently (at the time of posting this). As for most participants believing in the 79k top, I do not think anywhere near most believe that. Steve (plus Alessio Rastani covered it and Gareth Soloway may have also) has a wide following so you will see a sprinkling of us in the comments around. But by no means was that a widely held view as far as I can tell. I think maybe you may see more pushback because you are the one pushing so hard for this left translated parabola which worked well for you up to the recent ATH and so your confirmation bias seems to be very intense.

CTO Larsson did a similar but different form of analysis, comparing the pre-and-post-halving gain ratios and timing. I computed his calculation more precisely and arrived at ~92k for the final top, which might be a 5th top later in 2025 after the quadruple top in Q1 2025. Gareth noted that so far each new ATH is progressing +4.5k from the prior one since the first in 2021. I realized that if the 5.3 theory resets again on a posited severe correction this Fall, then it could project the next ATH in Q1 2025 as right around the +4.5k level from the posited ~79k top for Jul/Aug.

I am open to these numbers not holding with any precision, but I will be (pleasantly) shocked if Bitcoin makes it above 100k this summer. I really wish it would happen. One can argue that Bitcoin has been moving sideways, then lurch up, then sideways, then repeat. But this months of sideways right above the prior ATH is quite bizarre compared to prior 4 year cycles.

13 jun 2024

Nota

This labels the EW count differently. In this labeling, the wave 2 could pull back as much as 61.9% which would be ~63k except c.f. below. This would also allow for much more upside on Bitcoin than Alessio’s EW count, which is why I do not think this is correct.

In either case, that last move down over the past 6 days appears to be a completed A-B-C. Thus perhaps not going lower unless C will be longer than A. Also the corrective wave of a 5-wave (i.e. his labeled wave 2) normally does not correct back into wave 1 of the 5-wave (i.e. 65k). Thus Alessio’s 65k invalidation seems to hold either way.

youtu.be/L9mFW5wBmeE?t=514
(STOCK MARKET UPDATE 06 11 24 | ElliottWaveSage)

youtu.be/jsrQS9R0m4o?t=499
(STOCK MARKET UPDATE 06 08 24 | ElliottWaveSage)

============================================

“shelby3, I agree that this uptrend with a direction above $71,288 will be given another chance from June 17. However, as I wrote regarding risk/reward, even if you hit a good point like $69,100, it will be difficult to get anything out of it. I wonder if it will test $64,000-66,000 in the coming days.”

goodblackcat, I was cautiously accumulating altcoins when Bitcoin dropped below 67k. C.f. the EW update I will post now. Also we are going into an altcoin season with ETH ETF expectations and Roaring Kitty about to send GME to the moon. Major hedge funds probably joined him on doubling-down on more calls on this recently bullish pullback. They are going to wreck the naked shorts and end up owning (controlling interest in) the company, while injecting the company with billions of issuance at high prices, which they can then use to buy Bitcoin and pursue the Microstrategy strategy on the looming crash this Fall. Thus the risk/reward is great is one assumes TOTAL3 headed up to its ATH by end of July or mid-August. Bitcoin is not that exciting here, as my updates argue. We just need it to flip over 72 to 74k, then altcoins will rocket. Altcoin season always starts after Bitcoin new ATH and post-halving and a catalyst, e.g. Musk DOGE promotion on Dec. 20, 2020 followed by GME pump on reddit in early Jan 2021. Now we have both elements again repeating, ETH ETF and GME pump underway.

“shelby3, The critical $69,100 level was tested perfectly twice in the last hour on 1 minute and lower time frames. US indices lead, BTC is led by them. There is nothing left to do but move towards $71,288. The best risk/reward point was at $69,100. It's all just a numbers game from my point of view.”

goodblackcat, oic. Yeah I am starting to lean towards Bitcoin can not go test lower than it already did, but will not rule out a test of ~65k. C.f. the update I will post now on the EW count. The market seems perplexed by the Fed’s dotplot, which raised inflation expectations and moved all but one of the rate cuts to after the election as well increased unemployment expectations. Market was initially enthused about the lower CPI print thus the gap up that was faded. But Treasury will inject liquidity after June 15. The narrative will shift to match the reality that liquidity drives the outcome, which is what they market is trying to discern with rate cut expectations anyway. Yet rate cuts come with the recession is accelerating and markets crash soon thereafter. I suspect the narrative will quickly shift to the Fed dotplot might have not have factored in the latest CPI drop and/or that higher inflation expectation means economy is stronger and thus a no/soft landing expected by Fed. When in fact the dotplot is Fed realizing the economy and banking crisis is looming but they do not want to cut before the election and also they are worried about stoking inflation by cutting. Again it all distills back to actual liquidity injection and market narratives follows the actual liquidity.

13 jun 2024

Nota

Meet Kevin argues the both the Fed and current administration need to pump up small caps this summer. The Roaring Kitty situation appears to have implicit major hedge fund backing. They are going to flip a switch. The Fed dotplot is because the Fed does not want to be seen as political. Thus they aredgoing it with stealth mechanisms! Damn it all makes sense now!

youtu.be/yDnk8sXFfBw
(sh9t - I need to cover!!! SORRY! | Meet Kevin)

13 jun 2024

Nota

GoT points out that the breakdown of the gold/silver ratio signals a blow-off top over the next 3 months. Retail is being lured back in right at the top!

youtu.be/LvIE2M5OzcM
(Dumb Money Just Went ALL IN on Stocks. (Dangerous Setup) | Game of Trades)

14 jun 2024

Nota

This chart suggests Bitcoin will not make a new ATH until after August 12. 😳 The yellow-dashed vertical lines are the halvings.

14 jun 2024

Nota

If that’s a bullish, inverted H&S or a bullish ascending triangle, Bitcoin needs to come back down significantly. Presumably altcoins would be slaughtered, although some of them did bottom before Bitcoin did at 57k.

14 jun 2024

Nota

Bitcoin at a critical level. He points out that if altcoins drop much more, the thesis for an altcoin season has no prior 4-year cycle basis.

youtu.be/L4kTL45hD98
(Bitcoin BTC: You SHOULD Be Concerned! - This Level Is EVERYTHING | Wolves of Crypto)

========================

This altcoin season appears to be doomed by the attack of the clones. Every person and his inbred cousin is releasing a new altcoin.

Btw, most ETF inflows are being hedged with shorts, thus net no inflows.

youtube.com/clip/Ugkx06dPBUvhR1k-dEg4QHN6VxyCD2L4kU-C?si=5EpzCsh7KT1iG3VR
(Bleeding altcoins musical chairs; no retail FOMO replenishment)

14 jun 2024

Nota

I see nobody in the cryptocosm posting this idea.

So the center cup tops out ~79k, which is precisely the predicted 5.3 theory top. Then comes down for the right shoulder. Now if we assume the 5.3 theory applies again but does not diminish by 5.3 because still in the same 4-year cycle, thus ~30k + (4 × 30k) = ~150k target.

Or Bulkowski's ThePatternSite.com states that Cup&Handle as well as inverted H&S often only reach a (~30%) fraction of their projected target, thus perhaps CTO Larsson’s ~92k target based on pre-versus-post-halving relative gains (and timing). Or ~92k could be computed by dividing the current 5.3 theory multiple 4.13 by 5.3 = ~0.78 and adding that to 4.13 = ~5 (which is a Fibonacci number). Thus 15.4k + (5 × 15.4k) = ~92.k.

Btw, this posited inverted H&S neckline would explain why so far each new ATH is only ~4.5k higher than the prior one (as first noted by Gareth Soloway).