$ETH - The Flippening?

30 ene 2018

ETH/BTC has been a great metric, in the past, of guaging where we are in the altcoin season. As we get to the bottom of the channel, it's generally a good idea to scale out of bitcoin and go into alts, using the high purchasing power of bitcoin to get into the beaten down alts and maximize your return. As we get to the top of the channel, we need to start looking to scale out of our alts, and move back into bitcoin. On a macro scale, this is a fantastic method for maximizing your trades.

As I was measuring, based on historical data, where exactly this altseason might take us (length of season + value of ETH relative to BTC) I noticed that a pattern emerged with the Fibonacci extensions of the previous cycle's high and low. The next cycle's high was almost directly corresponding with the 4.236 fib extension of the previous cycle.

I know how high this is. I doubt it will reach this valuation. It would likely take some tragic blow to BTC for this to actually come to fruition. However, I just read what the chart tells me.

Under current circulating supply, there is 16,834,212 BTC and 97,293,539 ETH (according to coinmarketcap.com)

16,834,212/97,293,539=0.173024973426036

So, at 0.17302498 BTC, under the circulating supply assumption as of today, the flippening will occur. And, when that happens, I expect FOMO to kick in. Especially if BTC continues to range as it has been the past week or so.

We might not see .57BTC per ETH, but I've seen crazier things in crypto.

Also, we're about 55 days into the macro reversal of ETH, giving the general alt rally about an estimated 194 days left to thrive. Again, these are just estimations, but I see that number being reasonable.