S&P 500 Futures: Fibonacci Levels and Upcoming Trends

30 mar 2023

S&P 500 futures are currently experiencing a pause due to Fibonacci extension targets, with a possible further upside move towards the 4100 level. A short-term cool down period and pullback is expected before potentially heading higher into mid-week next week. Keep an eye on the VIX for potential moves.

I noticed an interesting battle around Fibonacci levels at the close on Thursday. There are a couple of pivotal points to consider. The first set of pivots are 3937 > 4033 > 3981, which create Fibonacci extension targets of 4079 and 4102. This likely explains the current pause in the market.

Another layer of important pivots are 3839 > 4073 > 3937, which place a 61.8% Fibonacci extension target at 4084. This further reinforces the reason for the price action pause today.

Based on this analysis, I expect that we're going to see a further upside move tomorrow, as there is still a decent amount of momentum behind this market movement. It seems likely that the 4100 level will be tapped. Numerous indicators are overbought on most timeframes, including higher timeframes such as the 4-hour and daily charts.

The key takeaway is that a portion of the current correction appears to be almost complete, suggesting a cool down period as I mentioned yesterday. I anticipate a pullback to somewhere near 4000-4025 before heading higher into mid-week next week. As I've been discussing April 6th for a while now, this should serve as reinforcement. My projected path is up tomorrow, down on Monday/Tuesday, up on Wednesday/Thursday, and then I will determine what happens next.

I'm also keeping an eye on the VIX. There is a possibility that it is bottoming out around 19 for now, with a potential move up to 25 in the coming weeks. However, it's important not to make hasty trading decisions based on this observation alone.

31 mar 2023

Operación activa

In all honesty, I anticipated that the SPX futures would reach today's level. However, upon analyzing the market from a comprehensive perspective, it appears to possess the potential to climb higher towards the end of this week. As today marks the end of the month, we can expect a certain degree of volatility. Consequently, I plan to mostly abstain from active trading as the month concludes.

Looking ahead to April, historical data suggests that the market tends to perform favorably during this month. As illustrated in the attached chart, my upside target for the SPX is approximately 4175, while the current level stands at 4120.

In the coming days, I will adopt a cautious approach, taking each day as it comes and refraining from impulsive decisions. The key is to exercise patience and allow the market to find its equilibrium.

4 abr 2023

Operación activa

As stated in my previous update, I incidated ES had more room to go. Here's an untouched chart:


Here's an updated chart:


As the hours go by, April 6th is drawing near. With the Holy Week in progress and Good Friday hitting us right after a full moon cycle, there should be increased volatility. I would expect that a final push up could come tomorrow or Thursday to hit a double top scenario before a bigger pullback to the yellow trendline comes. Once we hit the yellow trendline again, we can make a determination on what happens next. For now, this is the path that I'm forecasting.