SPX ABC complete, may BO falling wedge this week.
SPX fututres on Feb 28 finished a classic ABC correction; B rallies 0.618 of A & C retraces 1.272 of B. (a final capitulation by algos due to the "NUCLEAR" news)
It may BO of a bullish falling wedge this week.
Some historical data:
Market's geopolitical shock events historical on average causes a 5% drawdown, bottoms in 22 days & recovers in 47 days.
SPX averaged 13.7% drawdowns every 2 years for the past 47 years. ( we're past 14%)
Only 5 have turned into bear markets (>20%) with average drawdowns of 32.5%.
SPX averaged 17.1% intraday drawdowns during mid-term elections years like 2022.( We are now only at 14%)
Although not obvious, there seems to be also an Inverse H&S forming along the upper wedge. Breaking out of this neck/wedge may ultimately
send SPX again to restest the ATH at 4800 sometime middle of 2022. Then a big ABC correction follows after the final wave 5 completes.
Although historically the SPX rallies just before an invasion, there will be a lot of volatility & a lot of work has to be done before another ATH.
This may not be the right time to go short as sentiment is at a historical low & Put/Call ratio extremely high. (Buy when there is blood in the market).
Market will rise in the absence of new sellers below 4100 & when hedge funds cover their shorts.
not trading advice. I hope this guide helps you.
It may BO of a bullish falling wedge this week.
Some historical data:
Market's geopolitical shock events historical on average causes a 5% drawdown, bottoms in 22 days & recovers in 47 days.
SPX averaged 13.7% drawdowns every 2 years for the past 47 years. ( we're past 14%)
Only 5 have turned into bear markets (>20%) with average drawdowns of 32.5%.
SPX averaged 17.1% intraday drawdowns during mid-term elections years like 2022.( We are now only at 14%)
Although not obvious, there seems to be also an Inverse H&S forming along the upper wedge. Breaking out of this neck/wedge may ultimately
send SPX again to restest the ATH at 4800 sometime middle of 2022. Then a big ABC correction follows after the final wave 5 completes.
Although historically the SPX rallies just before an invasion, there will be a lot of volatility & a lot of work has to be done before another ATH.
This may not be the right time to go short as sentiment is at a historical low & Put/Call ratio extremely high. (Buy when there is blood in the market).
Market will rise in the absence of new sellers below 4100 & when hedge funds cover their shorts.
not trading advice. I hope this guide helps you.
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