Evening Update: Breach $3997 then $3956...3830 is the target
One of the many reasons I don't pay attention to the content of economic news is market reaction rarely lines up the news. It matches the traders sentiment obviously...but many times the news says one thing and prices say another.
Yesterday the market spiked up initially on what most would consider a better than expected CPI report and then spent the vast majority of the day coming down. Then the market got precisely what it was anticipating from The Fed in the form of a 50% rate hike vs. a 75% one. The market goes down. The excuse is the Dot Plot...But I could have said I wore a red short today and that is why we went down. It's stupid and baseless. I was expecting lower yesterday in a local top to start a downtrend...if I am any indication of sentiment at large...then the market was ultimately looking for a means to reconcile lower anyway.
Needless to say, we appear to be headed lower. Todays low of 3997 is the first price point that needs to get breached and then 3956....for confirmation. If that happens I am targeting 3830 for just the "a" wave of this B wave decline...which should reconcile in the low 3700's late January-beginning of February 2023.
If price will cooperate, we can then spend the majority of 2023 rallying back to the 4300 area...before it's get's ugly again.
Best to all,
Chris
Yesterday the market spiked up initially on what most would consider a better than expected CPI report and then spent the vast majority of the day coming down. Then the market got precisely what it was anticipating from The Fed in the form of a 50% rate hike vs. a 75% one. The market goes down. The excuse is the Dot Plot...But I could have said I wore a red short today and that is why we went down. It's stupid and baseless. I was expecting lower yesterday in a local top to start a downtrend...if I am any indication of sentiment at large...then the market was ultimately looking for a means to reconcile lower anyway.
Needless to say, we appear to be headed lower. Todays low of 3997 is the first price point that needs to get breached and then 3956....for confirmation. If that happens I am targeting 3830 for just the "a" wave of this B wave decline...which should reconcile in the low 3700's late January-beginning of February 2023.
If price will cooperate, we can then spend the majority of 2023 rallying back to the 4300 area...before it's get's ugly again.
Best to all,
Chris
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