ES1!, weekend update
Bull case on left, bear case on right.
On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25), with the wave in orange longer than the waves in red and yellow. I don't see a way to turn these into a diagonal, so the implication would be there are at least three 1/2's lined up, and that we are waiting for a correction wave to finish above 5154.25 to show us where the first 3 is.
On the right, I have the move down from 5333.50 to 4963.50 as one impulse wave, with a leading/contracting diagonal 1. For the presumed correction off of 4963.50, I see a series of five ABCs (first is zigzag, second is zigzag with leading diagonal A, third is zigzag, fourth is expanded flat, fifth is expanded flat). These ABCs are obviously overlapping, but I do not see how they can be turned into a diagonal, as the proposed 3 would be shorter than 1 but then 5 would be longer than 3 or 2 would be longer than 4, depending on how you draw it up. Therefore, I think the most appropriate way to see it would be a triple-three WXYXZ that is nearing or at completion. Of note, this proposed corrective wave would be finishing in the .5-.618 retracement area, standard for a wave 2 or a wave B.
In either case, I think we'll know early next week which idea will pan out.
On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25), with the wave in orange longer than the waves in red and yellow. I don't see a way to turn these into a diagonal, so the implication would be there are at least three 1/2's lined up, and that we are waiting for a correction wave to finish above 5154.25 to show us where the first 3 is.
On the right, I have the move down from 5333.50 to 4963.50 as one impulse wave, with a leading/contracting diagonal 1. For the presumed correction off of 4963.50, I see a series of five ABCs (first is zigzag, second is zigzag with leading diagonal A, third is zigzag, fourth is expanded flat, fifth is expanded flat). These ABCs are obviously overlapping, but I do not see how they can be turned into a diagonal, as the proposed 3 would be shorter than 1 but then 5 would be longer than 3 or 2 would be longer than 4, depending on how you draw it up. Therefore, I think the most appropriate way to see it would be a triple-three WXYXZ that is nearing or at completion. Of note, this proposed corrective wave would be finishing in the .5-.618 retracement area, standard for a wave 2 or a wave B.
In either case, I think we'll know early next week which idea will pan out.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.