ES/SPY Weekend Look (Apr 4-8)
Here is the weekend look at the S&P futures going into the trading week of April 4th – 8th. The S &P started out the week with a strong move above the neutral box. Price broke through the Feb 2nd (4586) pivot on Tuesday getting as high as 4631. Price met resistance just below the 786-fib retracement and then reversed lower dropping approximately 2% during the balance of the week. Support was found at the 9ema and the top of the neutral box.
Going into this week I will be watching to see if price can hold the top of the neutral and push higher. Targets to the upside would be the most recent high at 4631 and then the 886 Fib at 4722 above. If price fails to hold the top of the neutral, I would then expect a move back down to the 200 sma and potentially the 21 ema. A deep downside target would be the bottom of the neutral box at 4259.
The Ukraine war will dominate headlines again as will the price of OIL and inflation. Although a peace agreement seemed promising last week, there are now reports of genocide in Bucha. The pictures getting circulated are horrific and the pressure on the West/US to do more is increasing. Regarding oil, the release from the strategic reserve by Biden was huge and one would expect a further drop in oil, but the futures market, which is forward looking, may start to price in continued supply shortages 6 months out. Both situations may increase inflation which has continued to push higher due to persistent supply constraints & employee shortages. Increased inflation will continue to be a problem and likely lead to higher interest rates. High interest rates will put pressure on stocks, especially small caps and growth. Of course, it is impossible to predict the direction of current events as one headline could change everything, so now more than ever one must focus on the actual outcomes. The one certainty is uncertainty and volatility. We must expect wild moves in either direction. Best just to focus on the key levels and trade according to if/then scenarios.
If you find my posts helfull please give me a like. Follow me on Twitter for more updates and content @Sea2Sky_trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with more data and info: 7mesh.substack.com/p...futures-weekend-look
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday... US Factory Orders
Tuesday... US Trade balance & ISM Manufacturing
Wednesday... EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minute
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Fed head speak
Friday... US Wholesale inventories
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday... Nothing notable
Tuesday... AYI, ARRY
Wednesday... TLRY, LEVI,
Thursday... STZ, PSMT
Friday... Nothing notable
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH BEARISH
Potential peace agreement War in Ukraine worsens, and US takes more action
Potential to hold top of Neutral Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices fall Oil prices rise
Potential recovery in bonds Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Yields stabilize Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.
Going into this week I will be watching to see if price can hold the top of the neutral and push higher. Targets to the upside would be the most recent high at 4631 and then the 886 Fib at 4722 above. If price fails to hold the top of the neutral, I would then expect a move back down to the 200 sma and potentially the 21 ema. A deep downside target would be the bottom of the neutral box at 4259.
The Ukraine war will dominate headlines again as will the price of OIL and inflation. Although a peace agreement seemed promising last week, there are now reports of genocide in Bucha. The pictures getting circulated are horrific and the pressure on the West/US to do more is increasing. Regarding oil, the release from the strategic reserve by Biden was huge and one would expect a further drop in oil, but the futures market, which is forward looking, may start to price in continued supply shortages 6 months out. Both situations may increase inflation which has continued to push higher due to persistent supply constraints & employee shortages. Increased inflation will continue to be a problem and likely lead to higher interest rates. High interest rates will put pressure on stocks, especially small caps and growth. Of course, it is impossible to predict the direction of current events as one headline could change everything, so now more than ever one must focus on the actual outcomes. The one certainty is uncertainty and volatility. We must expect wild moves in either direction. Best just to focus on the key levels and trade according to if/then scenarios.
If you find my posts helfull please give me a like. Follow me on Twitter for more updates and content @Sea2Sky_trader.
Here is a link to my Substack of this post with more data and info: 7mesh.substack.com/p...futures-weekend-look
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday... US Factory Orders
Tuesday... US Trade balance & ISM Manufacturing
Wednesday... EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minute
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Fed head speak
Friday... US Wholesale inventories
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday... Nothing notable
Tuesday... AYI, ARRY
Wednesday... TLRY, LEVI,
Thursday... STZ, PSMT
Friday... Nothing notable
BULLISH VS BEARISH NOTES
BULLISH BEARISH
Potential peace agreement War in Ukraine worsens, and US takes more action
Potential to hold top of Neutral Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices fall Oil prices rise
Potential recovery in bonds Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Yields stabilize Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.
Comentarios:
Failed at the top of the neutral fell through 200sma an now at the 21 ema. Expecting bounce here. If price cannot hold the 21ema big space below to the bottom of the neutral (tan box)
Comentarios:
Got the bounce off the 21 ema on Wednesday and then retested lower at pivot support today. Price currently chopping above and below the 200 sma between the two emas right in the middle of the neutral... so trendless market.
Bullish Notes
Potential peace agreement
Potential to hold top of Neutral
Oil prices fall
Potential recovery in bonds
Yields stabilize
Bearish Notes:
War in Ukraine worsens, and US takes more action
Price breaks below 9ema
Oil prices rise
Commodity inflations continues to soar.
Bonds continue sell off and rates rise
Serious unknown event draws US further into Ukraine war.