Hey,
Really not feeling this market this week, so will keep this short, sweet and to the point.
There is some bullishness lurking this week, waiting to show its head. At least, this is what the probabilities tell me.
Let's see if it happens.
Our pretty much hundo p target for today is 3606, probability is pretty high we hit this target.
Probability is also fairly high we see the 1st bullish target today too at 3696.
In terms of weekly targets, here are the ranges:
Pretty narrow range and it makes sense because projections think we likely we will see both the first bull and bear target. If we look closer, we can really see what this makes sense from a probability standpoint:
Both of those targets are within the regression trend.
Which MEANS, the math thinks we will be wiggling our way back up in this channel. Hence, why I say there is some LURKING bullishness ;).
But its also kind of expected after the sell we had. And its really not fair to call it bullishness per se, because its simply more bounciness.
But either way, expect us to remain within this weekly range this week....BUT also know that CPI is coming and its coming quick. Do we expect it to be good? Maybe. Analysts think the results will be improved from previous.
IF the market starts off heavy, I would suspect the market may be wanting to see a positive spin on CPI.
IF the market starts off bullish, I would suspect that maybe the market would want to be seeing a negative spin on CPI.
Either way, I am expecting a bit of a gap down into Monday, which means that we should probably have a heavier overnight session.
I am hoping for a gap down and bullish start to the week so we can end with some more, big selling on CPI.
It would be very interesting if the market did something new for a change and rallied with CPI. That would sure show us who is boss.
But we will see how the market feels about stuff and how motivated it is to be unique and different.
Either way, we should have an idea of what direction we will be going pre-CPI.
I mean it was fairly obvious pre-job numbers that the market had topped, so maybe the market will be nice and give us another obvious setup.
Time will tell!
Oh and for me, my personal target is the first bull target 3695 only because I suspect that this is going to touch the first bear target first. If I see it touch this and bounce, I will play to 3695 (morning session though).
But expect volatility.
Also don't copy me because I could be 100% wrong.
In fact, looking at the spread between the first bull and bear target, not sure it will make the first bull target at all. But, the probs do say its likely, so will have trust it. But yeah the spread seems too aggressive.
Either way keep stops tight here if you are also playing long! And trail your gains.
Otherwise, trade safe everyone!
Really not feeling this market this week, so will keep this short, sweet and to the point.
There is some bullishness lurking this week, waiting to show its head. At least, this is what the probabilities tell me.
Let's see if it happens.
Our pretty much hundo p target for today is 3606, probability is pretty high we hit this target.
Probability is also fairly high we see the 1st bullish target today too at 3696.
In terms of weekly targets, here are the ranges:
Pretty narrow range and it makes sense because projections think we likely we will see both the first bull and bear target. If we look closer, we can really see what this makes sense from a probability standpoint:
Both of those targets are within the regression trend.
Which MEANS, the math thinks we will be wiggling our way back up in this channel. Hence, why I say there is some LURKING bullishness ;).
But its also kind of expected after the sell we had. And its really not fair to call it bullishness per se, because its simply more bounciness.
But either way, expect us to remain within this weekly range this week....BUT also know that CPI is coming and its coming quick. Do we expect it to be good? Maybe. Analysts think the results will be improved from previous.
IF the market starts off heavy, I would suspect the market may be wanting to see a positive spin on CPI.
IF the market starts off bullish, I would suspect that maybe the market would want to be seeing a negative spin on CPI.
Either way, I am expecting a bit of a gap down into Monday, which means that we should probably have a heavier overnight session.
I am hoping for a gap down and bullish start to the week so we can end with some more, big selling on CPI.
It would be very interesting if the market did something new for a change and rallied with CPI. That would sure show us who is boss.
But we will see how the market feels about stuff and how motivated it is to be unique and different.
Either way, we should have an idea of what direction we will be going pre-CPI.
I mean it was fairly obvious pre-job numbers that the market had topped, so maybe the market will be nice and give us another obvious setup.
Time will tell!
Oh and for me, my personal target is the first bull target 3695 only because I suspect that this is going to touch the first bear target first. If I see it touch this and bounce, I will play to 3695 (morning session though).
But expect volatility.
Also don't copy me because I could be 100% wrong.
In fact, looking at the spread between the first bull and bear target, not sure it will make the first bull target at all. But, the probs do say its likely, so will have trust it. But yeah the spread seems too aggressive.
Either way keep stops tight here if you are also playing long! And trail your gains.
Otherwise, trade safe everyone!
Comentarios:
So.... very slow start. ES was essentially flat overnight. But we did get our hundo p target I am now long biased:
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