ES/SPY Weekend Look (Apr 11-15)

Here is the weekend look at the S&P Futures going into the trading week of April 11th – April 15th. Last week price made a week attempt to re-test the 786 Fib high but rolled over on Tuesday and dropped back into moving average support. The S&P closed out the week back on the 200 sma and just above the 21 ema.

Going into this week the S&P is showing relative strength to the other indexes. I have removed the higher time frame Neutral box and replace it with a neutral box measured off the recent move up from the Feb 24th low. For bullish price action to continue I want to see price stay above the new neutral box. The key level to start the week will be the top of the Neutral at 4421. If price can maintain that level and move higher a push back up to 4631 is possible. Above 4631 targets would be 4721 and then the ATH. If price fails to hold the key 4421 level a move down to the bottom of the neutral box at 4296 is possible. Below 4296 the Feb low would be in play with deep targets at 4159 and 4101.

The news cycle will continue to focus on the war in Ukraine, inflation, and interest rates. This week will feature the all-important CPI data and the beginning of earning season again with the major banks reporting on Wed & Thur. Although the tone is decidedly bearish any positive development will reverse the market sharply as we have seen over the past few weeks. For this reason, I will not be committing heavily in either direction until the market breaks out of the current range.

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Here is a link to my post on Substack with some more data... nine21.substack...eekend-look-7d9?r=8g8xk&am...

WEEKLY EVENTS


Monday Fed Heads Speak
Tuesday US CPI
Wednesday US PPI, US EIA Crude Inventories, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Thursday ECB Rate Decision, US Retail Sales & US Jobless Claims
Friday US Industrial Production


NOTABLE EARNINGS


Monday
Tuesday KMX
Wednesday BBBY, BLK, DAL, FAST, JPM,
Thursday C, GS, MS, TSM, UNH, WFC
Friday

BULLISH NOTES
Earning season momentum
Potential CPI surprise to the downside
Potential drop in yields
Potential peace agreement in Ukraine

BEARISH NOTES
Bank earnings may disappoint
CPI surprises to the upside
Rise in yields and further yield inversion
Ukraine situation worsens
Chinese covid lock downs expand

Comentarios:

Price dropped today through the top of the Neutral (Trend box) and the key 4421 level. This is bearish, but it should be noted that price has also just finished a 3 drives pattern which can lead to a reversal.
CPI data come out tomorrow morning at 830 EST. This will cause increase volatility and could push price wildly in either direction.

Comentarios:

Reversed at the completion of the 3 drives pattern on CPI data.
Looking at the 21 ema as first resistance. Above the 21ema a move back to the 4631 pivot possible.

Comentarios:

The early move yesterday turned out to be short covering. Price rejected at the 21 ema and fell back down. Price currently trading around the top of the Neutral at the 4400 level. Price needs to reclaim the 21 ema to draw in buyers. Next support is the bottom of the Neutral and then the 786 below that.