Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,

30 sept

Weekly Analysis of Gold, Currencies, and Oil Opportunities from September 30 to October 4, 2024




Introduction:

Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert,
In this important weekly analysis, we present a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the period from September 30 to October 4, 2024. We highlight significant investment opportunities in global markets, including the US dollar, gold, oil, and indices. This article not only provides a thorough outlook of the markets but also reveals golden opportunities that should be seized amid the major news releases this week. We invite you to share your comments and opinions.

At the end of the previous week, we saw an acceleration of geopolitical events and the return of uncertainty, which affected the movement of gold and markets in general. We will provide a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the markets during this period.

1. Geopolitical Events and Market Analysis

Geopolitical events have caused an increase in the fear index, preventing gold from resuming its expected corrections. Markets remain uncertain about the direction of gold and the US dollar, putting additional pressure on price movements. This week, we will focus on key economic data that will be released and their impact on the market, such as the GDP in England, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone, and the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

2. Important Economic Data

1. Monday: GDP in England, CPI in the Eurozone, and Jerome Powell’s speech.
2. Tuesday: CPI for the Eurozone and US Manufacturing PMI.
3. Wednesday: Non-Farm Private Sector Employment (ADP) and US Crude Oil Inventory.
4. Thursday: US Unemployment Claims and Services PMI.
5. Friday: Non-Farm Payroll, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate.

3. Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs

1. EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar): If prices stabilize above 1.1000, we may see a rise towards 1.1350 and 1.1550 on a weekly basis.
2. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar): Breaking the 1.33540 level could pull the pair down towards 1.32500 and 1.31700.
3. USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen): Stability below 144 could lead to a drop towards 140 and 136, extending to 132.
4. USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc): A break below 0.8400 may lead to a drop towards 0.8300 and 0.8200.
5. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar): Staying above 0.6840 supports the positive trend towards 0.6920.
6. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar): Continuing to trade above 0.6300 may push the pair towards 0.6400 and 0.6500.
7. USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar): Pressure continues with a potential drop towards 1.3400 unless prices rise above 1.3550.
8. GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen): Breaking the 188.00 level may drag the pair towards 182.00 and 175.00.
9. EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen): A break below 158.00 may lead to a drop towards 155.00 and 151.00.
10. EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound): Breaking the 0.8300 level may bring the pair back towards 0.8060 and 0.8200.
11. USD/TRY (US Dollar/Turkish Lira): Attempts to improve the lira’s position may continue, but falling below 34.00 lira could lead to further pressure.

4. Technical Analysis of Commodities and Indices

1. Gold (XAU/USD): If prices remain below 2,680 dollars, corrections may continue towards 2,640 dollars and 2,600 dollars. If 2,640 dollars are broken, gold may continue to correct towards 2,560 dollars.
2. Crude Oil (WTI): If oil breaks the 68-dollar level, we may see a rise towards 71 and 74 dollars.
3. Silver (XAG/USD): A decline below 32.50 dollars may push prices towards 30.50 and 29.00 dollars.
4. Natural Gas (NG): Staying above 3.00 dollars supports an upward trend towards 3.50 and 4.00 dollars.
5. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A break below 42,250 may lead to corrections towards 41,600 and 40,800.
6. S&P 500: Failing to break 5,700 may lead to corrections towards 5,400.
7. NASDAQ: Failure to break 20,400 may lead to a decline towards 19,400.
8. Russell 2000: Breaking 2,225 may lead to a rise towards 2,320 and 2,400.
9. FTSE 100: Stability above 8,200 supports the positive trend towards 8,400.
10. DAX: Stability above 19,200 supports the upward trend towards 20,400.
11. CAC 40: Stability above 7,600 supports optimism and indicates a possible rise towards 8,000 and 8,400.
12. Nikkei 225: Breaking the 37,000 level may lead to a series of losses towards 35,000 and 33,000 on a weekly basis.

5. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

1. Bitcoin (BTC/USD): If prices stabilize above 65,000 dollars, we may see a rise towards 69,000 and 72,000 dollars. A break below this level could negate the bullish scenario.
2. Ethereum (ETH/USD): Failure to break 2,700 dollars may lead to a decline towards 2,300 dollars. It needs to break this level to achieve future gains.
3. Ripple (XRP/USD): Stability above 0.55 dollars supports a bullish trend towards 0.65 dollars, with the potential to rise towards 0.80 dollars if the positive trend continues.

6. Recommendations and Outlook

Markets remain under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and important economic data. We advise traders to carefully monitor support and resistance levels, especially in gold, oil, and major currencies. Opportunities remain available in the event of bearish corrections that provide good entry points.

Conclusion

Thank you for following this analysis, and we invite you to engage with us by sharing your questions and comments.
This analysis has been prepared by Mohammad Qais Abdulghani, a financial market expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is recommended to follow economic developments for well-informed decisions.