DXY - put your eyeballs here
Previously, I've stated that we have two major drivers of BTC price (and of course whatever the secondary effect of BTC price change is on all other crypto in general):
1. BTC is inversely proportional to the DXY
2. BTC is proportional to the 10 Year Treasury yield rate.
The DXY drives BTC price because, as we now know, the lion's share of BTC is institutional/big player money, not retail money.
So they think in risk on/risk off terms and also they play by a different set of rules in terms of how money managers are able to allocate resources.
The point here is that, if you are in BTC now, until the enthusiastic return of retail buyers, BTC will not behave like it has in the past.
Epic rallies are off the table because the big fish don't play the game that way.
Impressive rallies are still on the table, but the character of BTC will not be the same until the buyers are the same (retail).
So from here into the foreseeable future, BTC will be more like a sexy tech stock... Amazon 12 years ago is probably the best analog, maybe the last couple years in TSLA.
All that aside. Regularly look at the DXY. (weekly on left, daily on right)
We hit a weekly peak that regularly is followed by nearly a year of declining RSI.
Structurally, we have fallen back into an upward channel (a bearish continuation channel) and are just now back testing the ceiling.
We reacted off the teal rising support line. The next couple weeks will be telling as it seems the DXY has to turn right or left.
We look generally poised to breakdown over the next year to find out whether we are in the pink bullish wedge or yellow bearish channel. (I think it's the pink bullish wedge).
This implies BTC should start appreciating generally.
How is it possible to be bullish on the dollar long term?
Because Fiat currency value is a function of network size... we have by far the largest and there's no good reason to choose another fiat over ours.
Other nations are printing too, and by % actually more. As long as there's fiat and the US is a large chunk of the world's GDP, the USD will be valued.
Ours is the very best of the worst.
The relationship between the DXY and BTC will eventually change once BTC matures in purpose. Right now it's tradable speculative digital property.
Smartest MO? Dollar-cost-average, no leverage, set your time preference to 5+ years, HODL. Getting TOO excited will lead to despair (and possibly leveraged wreckage - ask me how I know).
1. BTC is inversely proportional to the DXY
2. BTC is proportional to the 10 Year Treasury yield rate.
The DXY drives BTC price because, as we now know, the lion's share of BTC is institutional/big player money, not retail money.
So they think in risk on/risk off terms and also they play by a different set of rules in terms of how money managers are able to allocate resources.
The point here is that, if you are in BTC now, until the enthusiastic return of retail buyers, BTC will not behave like it has in the past.
Epic rallies are off the table because the big fish don't play the game that way.
Impressive rallies are still on the table, but the character of BTC will not be the same until the buyers are the same (retail).
So from here into the foreseeable future, BTC will be more like a sexy tech stock... Amazon 12 years ago is probably the best analog, maybe the last couple years in TSLA.
All that aside. Regularly look at the DXY. (weekly on left, daily on right)
We hit a weekly peak that regularly is followed by nearly a year of declining RSI.
Structurally, we have fallen back into an upward channel (a bearish continuation channel) and are just now back testing the ceiling.
We reacted off the teal rising support line. The next couple weeks will be telling as it seems the DXY has to turn right or left.
We look generally poised to breakdown over the next year to find out whether we are in the pink bullish wedge or yellow bearish channel. (I think it's the pink bullish wedge).
This implies BTC should start appreciating generally.
How is it possible to be bullish on the dollar long term?
Because Fiat currency value is a function of network size... we have by far the largest and there's no good reason to choose another fiat over ours.
Other nations are printing too, and by % actually more. As long as there's fiat and the US is a large chunk of the world's GDP, the USD will be valued.
Ours is the very best of the worst.
The relationship between the DXY and BTC will eventually change once BTC matures in purpose. Right now it's tradable speculative digital property.
Smartest MO? Dollar-cost-average, no leverage, set your time preference to 5+ years, HODL. Getting TOO excited will lead to despair (and possibly leveraged wreckage - ask me how I know).
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