Índice Dow Jones Industrial AverageFormación
Is another big crash coming ?
This chart displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) monthly candlestick data alongside its 200-month simple moving average (SMA), highlighting significant historical declines and their characteristics. Here's the analysis:
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Phases (Highlighted in Blue Boxes):
Major drawdowns over the years are shown, with the percentage drop, the number of bars (months), and the trading volume involved. These events align with historical financial crises or economic downturns:
2000-2003 (-36.94%): Reflects the Dot-Com bubble burst.
2007-2009 (-52.12%): Represents the Global Financial Crisis.
2020 (-37.58%): Associated with the COVID-19 pandemic shock.
2. Recovery Time:
The recovery periods vary significantly:
Dot-Com Bubble: Took 37 bars (1,127 days).
Financial Crisis: Longer with 18 bars (548 days) of drawdown and prolonged recovery beyond the charted downturn.
COVID-19 Crash: Shortest at 2 bars (58 days) due to rapid monetary intervention.
3. Trends and Momentum:
The 200 SMA provides a clear indicator of long-term trend stability:
Downturns saw temporary breakdowns below the SMA, followed by robust recoveries.
Overall, the index reflects an upward trend over the decades.
RSI (14) Indicator: RSI peaks correlate to market highs; lows often match oversold conditions in major bear markets.
4. Market Volatility and Volume:
A noticeable spike in volumes coincides with large bearish moves (e.g., 2007-2009 and 2020 crises), signifying panic-driven trading activity.
Recent periods (2020 onwards) show high volatility, accompanied by strong rebounds.
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Conclusions:
Historically, even severe bear markets have seen the DJIA recover and continue its long-term uptrend, which aligns with the principle of compounding returns and economic growth.
The market tends to break its long-term SMA during extreme crises but eventually recovers.
Current RSI values suggest the market may not yet be overheated, but caution is advisable given previous patterns.
Would you like a deeper technical analysis or possible forecasting based on this data?
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Phases (Highlighted in Blue Boxes):
Major drawdowns over the years are shown, with the percentage drop, the number of bars (months), and the trading volume involved. These events align with historical financial crises or economic downturns:
2000-2003 (-36.94%): Reflects the Dot-Com bubble burst.
2007-2009 (-52.12%): Represents the Global Financial Crisis.
2020 (-37.58%): Associated with the COVID-19 pandemic shock.
2. Recovery Time:
The recovery periods vary significantly:
Dot-Com Bubble: Took 37 bars (1,127 days).
Financial Crisis: Longer with 18 bars (548 days) of drawdown and prolonged recovery beyond the charted downturn.
COVID-19 Crash: Shortest at 2 bars (58 days) due to rapid monetary intervention.
3. Trends and Momentum:
The 200 SMA provides a clear indicator of long-term trend stability:
Downturns saw temporary breakdowns below the SMA, followed by robust recoveries.
Overall, the index reflects an upward trend over the decades.
RSI (14) Indicator: RSI peaks correlate to market highs; lows often match oversold conditions in major bear markets.
4. Market Volatility and Volume:
A noticeable spike in volumes coincides with large bearish moves (e.g., 2007-2009 and 2020 crises), signifying panic-driven trading activity.
Recent periods (2020 onwards) show high volatility, accompanied by strong rebounds.
---
Conclusions:
Historically, even severe bear markets have seen the DJIA recover and continue its long-term uptrend, which aligns with the principle of compounding returns and economic growth.
The market tends to break its long-term SMA during extreme crises but eventually recovers.
Current RSI values suggest the market may not yet be overheated, but caution is advisable given previous patterns.
Would you like a deeper technical analysis or possible forecasting based on this data?
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