Patience all morning, now DIA puts

25 ene 2022

I bought puts with DIA around 340. On the daily I want you to notice how %K (green) chops around as %D rounds down and back over 20. While %D is below 20, a good time to buy puts for more downside is when %K is over it (especially if stays under 35). Notice in this recent market drop, the green line went over orange yesterday and is back down today. There is more selling likely to come because %D is still below 20. DIA is also very weak if price cannot close over 341.

On 30m chart, price has been consolidating sideways. RSI has come up to 50 and is struggling to get over it. There is no bullish divergence yet on RSI so I think DIA may go lower, though divergence may not occur. Stochastic %D looks ready to round back down.

On 5m chart, not shown here, DIA is stuck under 200sma and gets hammered down as soon as it tries to go up. In the very short term I am bearish on DIA until I see price get over 341 and the 200ma.

25 ene 2022

Nota

Bought weekly 335 puts at 2.93 (not the best entry). Price did not close over recent 5m high of 341.01, so still holding.
30m chart - 12:30 EST close was just over RSI-50. If this trade idea works then RSI will be below 50 on next candle.

25 ene 2022

Operación activa

Well DIA made an afternoon push higher... but I am not convinced it will last.
On 30m chart, I see 50ma resistance is holding, RSI-14 dipped below 33.33 so I expect it to head lower again after this double test of 50, and there is no bullish divergence on RSI.
Furthermore, on the daily chart, %D is still below 20 and %K is higher today. It should dip down again so this is a good place to buy puts.
I have only placed two trades today and since I am mostly all cash I am holding these puts.

26 ene 2022

Operación activa

This trade will have a high percent loss today. It is only fair if I share my losing trades along with the profitable ones, right? Though I used a weekly strike, I will stay with my plan and hold according to 30m chart.
This trade gives an example of when I left my plan (did not exit over 341) and now have to lose more or wait to recover some loss. It happens infrequently, but even good traders make mistakes! If price gets up to 349-350 (daily resistance) I will take 18Feb swing puts to help balance out this trade.

26 ene 2022

Operación activa

Price made a quick u-turn at 348 and never entered my target zone. Will take a small position of 18Feb puts.

27 ene 2022

Operación cerrada manualmente

I closed my weekly puts for a high percent loss; that was my execution error.
I am also closing my 18Feb puts today because with heavy selling and a possible daily bullish divergence, there may be a market bounce over the next few days. I could be wrong but I want to take profits and reassess my macro and 30m views.