Who do so many fund managers or traders sell courses?
First I think it is more common for fund managers to do this compared to just analysts, because the top guy has the entrepreneur flame and focusses on his activities 247 as opposed to an analyst that works 9 to 5 for a pay and is not an entrepreneur.
Also, actual professionals that sell courses like this are not as successful as random 20 yos or grey hair randoms that pretend they know something because they are older.
Why is that? Well my first answer is because dumb money is dumb. Because it sounds like too much work they rather go for the clown selling a dream.
But there is another answer, one that doesn't make me smile. Well it's simply because they actually manage money for real so they have less time to promote their second business.
I noticed something which might be a coincidence or might not, it is that some fund heads recently - now that dumb money is running back and there are more easy opportunities - have delegated the making of videos and mentorship to others. But others that get a cut or a wage are more 9 to 5 guys there are not going to promote the business of the head guy and obviously there will become to be a problem if the person that it was delegated too becomes the face of the course at that point it might as well just be his business, so this has its limits. Would be too easy.
As more dumb money comes in professionals can make money either by selling more courses to them (the really dumb money doesn't really go for serious people but rather for the trolls thought I think people that buy books and go to the pros are mostly doctors lawayers etc) , OR they can make money by exploiting the dumb money in the markets. Their main job often being actually managing money they will choose the latter.
My father is a successful oncologist (post-doc) that is close to retirement and like many recently started looking at investing more, I think he holds some but didn't tell me exactly what and how much. Should I try selling a course to him? (: He has basically as much diploma as you can possibly get and he was interesting in a gambling scam from the french government. Hard to convince it sucks "But they will give you a free share if you buy one and people will always buy gambling products". "Buy 1 share get 2", shares of the company that sells loterry tickets. Well the price is up now but it doesn't make it good. I guess I'm just another sucker just like all the hedge fund managers that miss out on everything and have poor performance.
Retail represents by now a good 20% of stock trading. Actually 40% since in the stats they count market makers that are now playing directional. 40% is alot.
With FX they only make up 5% and have no impact, and I think this estimate is without counting bid & ask providers. So much much smaller.
Oh and also retail investors mostly buy & hold they rarely day trade, whereas on top of on making 5% of FX volumes, retail almost only day trades so their impact is 0.
Derivatives like fx & commodities have existed for 10k years at least and short term speculators have a purpose. Short term meaning weeks to months not minutes.
But stocks... they are useless, their only way to make money is by fleecing dumb unsophisticated investors from their money.
Hedge funds have done poorly in the past 20 years and gotten criticized for it.
But in the past years dumb money has been coming back, and in 2020 they are overwhelming the markets, stock market in particular.
And big surprise, hedge funds have made record profits this year, especially in March with stocks (Bill Ackman made billions in a few days) and in April with Oil when hundreds of thousands of dumb money participants joyfully bought USO and some hedge funds made hundreds of millions in a few days.
Hedge fund heads don't make that much, for 1 Ray Dalio making over a billion there are hundreds that make less than 500k and sometimes even don't pay themselves.
350k for the average... That's the same as selling 100 $3,500 courses a year. They don't have the time to full promote their courses but they have a selling point which is being professionals (so unlike some clowns with 1 million youtube subs at least they can give valid info, I've heard things from some of the "educators" that are just so dead wrong I wonder if they don't do it on purpose). With a bit of time spent they can attract smarter people and smarter people have more money.
Lmao it's sad thought. The industry got so lame they started selling courses.
Jesse Livermore started selling courses too at some point where depression caused or worsened by epylepsia got too much, and you know what happened shortly after? He killed himself.
Pros waste too much time looking at the past bubbles. 2000 was a higher valuation than 1929 that was "the greatest" at the time. The next one can get even dumber.
There is inflation of course, but also companies profits go up as time goes so at the same stock price the valuation gets less expensive.
We can have an 8000 points S&P with a shiller P/E lower than 2000.
The current S&P P/E ratio based on the trailing 12 months earning is at 29. It was around the average in 1929. It's like prices go up and the poor pay for it.
It reached close to 45 in the early 2000s and over 70 in 2010.
I had made an estimate of the Dow Jones to GDP back in the 20s & 30s of the last century. That was back in march during the crash. In an idea called "the world can either burn or not". Compared to 1929 there is a long long long way to go. Now this is for the DOW JONES. Were there more or less small businesses back then?
A better indication would come from Russell to GDP but I have the dow & gdp number for the 1920s and not the russell 3 4 5000 numbers do you?
If we are to get to the ratios of 1929 there is a loooooooong way to go...
For example the GDP growing by 50% in the next 5 years (because of inflation and stocks going up makes it go up too) and SnP going times 3 would still be below 1929 in stock/gdp terms. 3 Times SnP means 10 thousand points.
Disclaimer: I am long tech100.
Still a perma bear. But I think prices go up to ridiculous valuations for now.
And easy money has a bright future ahead, lots of dumb money to exploit.
PMS with some skill should withdraw from the shame of selling courses, and the best the industry will have to offer is washed up rogue traders, PMS that are not very good, small prop traders.
What is better than taking a course is reading GS & JPM articles (for FX), BIS & FMI 500 page reports (I'll be honest I just look at the pictures) and so on.
What are they looking at? What causes them to buy or sell? This is what moves the price. It's so simple & crystal clear where we have to look!
I guess with stocks keep an eye on what stupid people are doing (chasing bankrupt companies, buying USO, etc)
If they all listen to Cramer and "I told you the RSI would not break 75" (this guy used to make fun of chartists even up to a few years ago) well I guess we gonna look at what Cramer says and the RSI if we get into stocks which will happen if they really become easy why grind forex?
Won't be the first time this happened but can't find the names from the 80s-90s bull market on the internet this cesspool of ignorance.
Also, actual professionals that sell courses like this are not as successful as random 20 yos or grey hair randoms that pretend they know something because they are older.
Why is that? Well my first answer is because dumb money is dumb. Because it sounds like too much work they rather go for the clown selling a dream.
But there is another answer, one that doesn't make me smile. Well it's simply because they actually manage money for real so they have less time to promote their second business.
I noticed something which might be a coincidence or might not, it is that some fund heads recently - now that dumb money is running back and there are more easy opportunities - have delegated the making of videos and mentorship to others. But others that get a cut or a wage are more 9 to 5 guys there are not going to promote the business of the head guy and obviously there will become to be a problem if the person that it was delegated too becomes the face of the course at that point it might as well just be his business, so this has its limits. Would be too easy.
As more dumb money comes in professionals can make money either by selling more courses to them (the really dumb money doesn't really go for serious people but rather for the trolls thought I think people that buy books and go to the pros are mostly doctors lawayers etc) , OR they can make money by exploiting the dumb money in the markets. Their main job often being actually managing money they will choose the latter.
My father is a successful oncologist (post-doc) that is close to retirement and like many recently started looking at investing more, I think he holds some but didn't tell me exactly what and how much. Should I try selling a course to him? (: He has basically as much diploma as you can possibly get and he was interesting in a gambling scam from the french government. Hard to convince it sucks "But they will give you a free share if you buy one and people will always buy gambling products". "Buy 1 share get 2", shares of the company that sells loterry tickets. Well the price is up now but it doesn't make it good. I guess I'm just another sucker just like all the hedge fund managers that miss out on everything and have poor performance.
Retail represents by now a good 20% of stock trading. Actually 40% since in the stats they count market makers that are now playing directional. 40% is alot.
With FX they only make up 5% and have no impact, and I think this estimate is without counting bid & ask providers. So much much smaller.
Oh and also retail investors mostly buy & hold they rarely day trade, whereas on top of on making 5% of FX volumes, retail almost only day trades so their impact is 0.
Derivatives like fx & commodities have existed for 10k years at least and short term speculators have a purpose. Short term meaning weeks to months not minutes.
But stocks... they are useless, their only way to make money is by fleecing dumb unsophisticated investors from their money.
Hedge funds have done poorly in the past 20 years and gotten criticized for it.
But in the past years dumb money has been coming back, and in 2020 they are overwhelming the markets, stock market in particular.
And big surprise, hedge funds have made record profits this year, especially in March with stocks (Bill Ackman made billions in a few days) and in April with Oil when hundreds of thousands of dumb money participants joyfully bought USO and some hedge funds made hundreds of millions in a few days.
Hedge fund heads don't make that much, for 1 Ray Dalio making over a billion there are hundreds that make less than 500k and sometimes even don't pay themselves.
350k for the average... That's the same as selling 100 $3,500 courses a year. They don't have the time to full promote their courses but they have a selling point which is being professionals (so unlike some clowns with 1 million youtube subs at least they can give valid info, I've heard things from some of the "educators" that are just so dead wrong I wonder if they don't do it on purpose). With a bit of time spent they can attract smarter people and smarter people have more money.
Lmao it's sad thought. The industry got so lame they started selling courses.
Jesse Livermore started selling courses too at some point where depression caused or worsened by epylepsia got too much, and you know what happened shortly after? He killed himself.
Pros waste too much time looking at the past bubbles. 2000 was a higher valuation than 1929 that was "the greatest" at the time. The next one can get even dumber.
There is inflation of course, but also companies profits go up as time goes so at the same stock price the valuation gets less expensive.
We can have an 8000 points S&P with a shiller P/E lower than 2000.
The current S&P P/E ratio based on the trailing 12 months earning is at 29. It was around the average in 1929. It's like prices go up and the poor pay for it.
It reached close to 45 in the early 2000s and over 70 in 2010.
I had made an estimate of the Dow Jones to GDP back in the 20s & 30s of the last century. That was back in march during the crash. In an idea called "the world can either burn or not". Compared to 1929 there is a long long long way to go. Now this is for the DOW JONES. Were there more or less small businesses back then?
A better indication would come from Russell to GDP but I have the dow & gdp number for the 1920s and not the russell 3 4 5000 numbers do you?
If we are to get to the ratios of 1929 there is a loooooooong way to go...
For example the GDP growing by 50% in the next 5 years (because of inflation and stocks going up makes it go up too) and SnP going times 3 would still be below 1929 in stock/gdp terms. 3 Times SnP means 10 thousand points.
Disclaimer: I am long tech100.
Still a perma bear. But I think prices go up to ridiculous valuations for now.
And easy money has a bright future ahead, lots of dumb money to exploit.
PMS with some skill should withdraw from the shame of selling courses, and the best the industry will have to offer is washed up rogue traders, PMS that are not very good, small prop traders.
What is better than taking a course is reading GS & JPM articles (for FX), BIS & FMI 500 page reports (I'll be honest I just look at the pictures) and so on.
What are they looking at? What causes them to buy or sell? This is what moves the price. It's so simple & crystal clear where we have to look!
I guess with stocks keep an eye on what stupid people are doing (chasing bankrupt companies, buying USO, etc)
If they all listen to Cramer and "I told you the RSI would not break 75" (this guy used to make fun of chartists even up to a few years ago) well I guess we gonna look at what Cramer says and the RSI if we get into stocks which will happen if they really become easy why grind forex?
Won't be the first time this happened but can't find the names from the 80s-90s bull market on the internet this cesspool of ignorance.
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