Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

11 mar

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The price of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high amid expectations of the halving and capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, it is approaching a test of the local resistance trendline, which will determine the direction of further price movement. If the BTC price fails to overcome it immediately, we can expect a correction of the last upward impulse towards the dynamic support line EMA 50 4H. There is also an important psychological level at 70,000 above which the price needs to hold. However, if they cannot withstand selling pressure, there is a chance of seeing a correction to the Imbalance 4H zone between 55,000 and 60,000, where it is necessary to close the gaps in trading volumes at horizontal levels. The need for a correction is also indicated by the emerging bearish divergence on the RSI indicator. In the next section, we will consider Bitcoin targets if, due to fundamental factors, its price continues its relentless rise.




📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

After consolidating above the 0.78 Fibonacci level and reaching a new all-time high, the price of BTC has transitioned into a full-fledged bullish trend. With no historical resistance levels above the ATH, we will utilize trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of significant order blocks in exchange order books to determine growth targets.

For the continuation of the uptrend, Bitcoin's price first needs to establish itself above the 70,000 level on a weekly candlestick basis. Currently, it is approaching a test of the local ascending trendline, which has been relevant since November 2023. This test may occur around the 75,000 level, supported by a significant block of pending orders. Beyond that, around the 90,000 mark, lies the global trendline based on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles. Additionally, the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level aligns in this area. The highest trendline sits within the 1.61 to 1.78 Fibonacci extension range, with a potential test starting from the 100,000 level.

Bitcoin's price is entering the pre-halving bull rally phase. However, historically, Bitcoin halvings have been preceded by corrections. The RSI indicator is once again in the overbought zone, forming a bearish divergence. Moreover, the fear and greed index has been in extreme greed territory for quite some time, typically signaling a trend reversal. Considering the absence of a significant correction since October 2023, conditions are ripe for one to begin. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum until the halving, we may anticipate a global correction of the entire 2023 uptrend afterward. The halving itself could serve as a selling signal, based on the idea that the cryptocurrency has reached a local peak, similar to what happened following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024. In that scenario, we would expect a correction in the 0.5 to 0.68 Fibonacci level range and a retest of the 200-week moving average. Additionally, there lies the Imbalance 1W zone between 54,000 and 60,000, where it is crucial to close gaps in horizontal trading volume levels.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme greed zone at 82.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 2,638 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 53.92.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 55000 - 62000
🔴 Supply Zone: 75000 - 100000

Levels for long positions:

60,000: Retest of the local trendline support
50,000: Point of Control (POC) level in the value area
46,000-48,000: Retest of the global trendline support

Levels for short positions:

75,000: Test of the local trendline
85,000 - 90,000: Test of the global trendline
100,000: Psychological resistance level




📊 Fundamental analysis

The uninterrupted rise of Bitcoin is occurring as the halving event approaches. This event is scheduled for April 2024 and will halve the rate of new BTC entering the market. The previous three halvings, which took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020, triggered cycles of cryptocurrency growth due to the formation of its scarcity. In 2024, the scarcity of Bitcoin may become more acute due to the adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of large capital into the market. The growing interest of investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs forces issuers to buy cryptocurrency from the market. The volume of BTC assets held by BlackRock has increased to 196,065 bitcoins, surpassing MicroStrategy by 3,065 coins.


🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ 12.03, 16:30 - Consumer inflation index in the USA (CPI).

➤ 20.03, 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In February 2024, the price of BTC continued to rise amid expectations of halving and an influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
Total price movement by all signals: + 47.28%
Maximum price movement: + 23.96%
Average price movement: + 15.76%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: