Bitcoin's Best Worst-Case Scenario
Preface: BTC's long-term trend is till bullish, so most likely scenario at this point is a continuation of the trend. Still, it's important to consider different views.
Bitcoin has been trading within the 70k-60k area for the better part of three months at this point. This came after making a (minor) new all-time high. This is the first all-time high that occured before the halving, so rather special.
Worst-case scenario for the bulls would be that we lose the long-term uptrend. Best worst-case would be a strong reversal from the bottom support. This support has been holding for >5 years, so I'd assume that a lot of buyers will be waiting around the support.
If we extrapolate history, Bitcoin should top out somewhere in Q4-2025. A move towards the support during the next few months and then a year of straight bull would fit this view.
More info on how I came to Q4-2025 here:
Do you think Bitcoin is going to make a new all-time high soon? New bear market? Share your thoughts.
Bitcoin has been trading within the 70k-60k area for the better part of three months at this point. This came after making a (minor) new all-time high. This is the first all-time high that occured before the halving, so rather special.
Worst-case scenario for the bulls would be that we lose the long-term uptrend. Best worst-case would be a strong reversal from the bottom support. This support has been holding for >5 years, so I'd assume that a lot of buyers will be waiting around the support.
If we extrapolate history, Bitcoin should top out somewhere in Q4-2025. A move towards the support during the next few months and then a year of straight bull would fit this view.
More info on how I came to Q4-2025 here:
Do you think Bitcoin is going to make a new all-time high soon? New bear market? Share your thoughts.
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