[Bitcoin] Possible scenarios in future

9 abr 2022

#Bitcoin #Daily #ElliottWave #Scenario #Tommy

- These are some of many scenarios that I am personally considering from the Elliott Wave Theory perspective. Numerous technical factors that are observed frequently especially in recent financial market such as widening patterns, stop hunting price action, parallel channels, and master patterns have been taken into account. Let's take a look at each one.

- Let’s start with A, my most bearish scenario. This is a wave counting where the whole bullish wave from 32.9K low formed in January, is regarded as a big dead-cat bounce, expecting another bearish wave cycle. I interpreted the sideway structure that came out after January as a green wave B within the 5-3-5 ABC correction. If we see another bullish trend breaking top of the black channel above, possible target prices for wave B are 53.6k~54.8k and 57.2k~58.4k. In a bigger picture, red wave C can be targeted at 22.3k~23.6k and 17.8K~19.5K which can also be considered as possible resistances. This scenario becomes more likely if bottoms of the black and green channel fail supporting.

- Scenario B is my bullish counting that assumes 32.9K low as the end of the corrective wave cycle and regarding the bullish wave after as an impulsive. It seems that support of the red upward trend line is currently being tested and if successfully supported, we cannot exclude the Leading Diagonal wave 1 scenario. If it fails supporting and cause more bearish momentum, I would say 37.8K~39.5K is a significant zone which is a confluent zone of the black channel bottom and HVP(High volume peak) level. This scenario is to be ignored if Bitcoin makes a swing low, breaking 32.9K and forming LL(Lower Low). If somehow Bitcoin becomes very bullish making a higher high, the target prices for the impulsive wave can be deducted as 72.5k-74.0k and 77.5k-79.0k.

- The following two scenarios have considered wave structure above 28K as 3-3-5 Flat Correction. Scenario C has taken widening or broadening patterns into account which are commonly observed these days. Considering 3-3-5 Expanded Flat correction, this scenario expects to break the 28.9K bottom, making a V-shaped price action at the stop-hunting level and the bottom of the disjoint channel. If the 53.6k~54.8k resistance fails rejection, this wave counting becomes invalid. The green wave 5 or red wave C can be targeted at 22.3k~23.6k and 17.8k~19.5k below.

- Scenario D is similar to C, but has a shorter green wave 5, meaning Truncated wave 5 or C is expected. This very case interprets the wave structure as a running flat corrective and expects to not break the bottom of the black or green channel below. 37.8K~39.5K would be a decent target range. If bottom of the upward channels fails supporting, 29.1k~30.8k which is the bottom of the smaller widening pattern formed after 32.9k, can also be considered as a short-term support zone.

- (Summary) The most imminent point to pay attention currently is to confirm whether the red bullish trend line can successfully support. The next support levels to keep our eyes on are around the bottom of the black and green channels. However, if this zone breaks, I would become very bearish expecting price to drop and reach 28.9k which is a very important LVP(Low Volume Peak) pivot level. If the market becomes worse making another huge drop, the area where the lower widening pattern and the stop-hunting level overlap around 22.3k~23.6k and 17.8k~19.5k, would be one of the most attractive buy zones. If additional bullish rallies are observed, the resistances to consider in between are 53.6k~54.8k and 57.2k~58.4k. Lastly, in a much bigger picture, if Bitcoin successfully swings high making a new historical high, I would say 72.5k~74.0k and 77.5k~79.0k are areas to expect some rejections.