BTCUSDT Short-term Analysis turns Bearish
Actualizado
Dear TradingViewers, here is my analysis on Bitcoin daily chart.
Fundamentaly, the halving happened a few days ago, and as history shows the bull runs began way after the halving day. We could heard in French media that the price will be "halved". Maybe they were right !
No, of course, the real definition is the block rewards being divided by 2, which is a bad news for miners which are seeing their production price increase/ or rentability decrease, as you prefer. And this is a real issue with a potential impact on price. Bitcoin being close to ATH, miners would make sense to take their profit as the difficulty increase. We could also see a surge in Bitcoin transaction fees.
=> fundamentals remain good long term, short term not so much.
Back to pure price action, things are getting interesting.
Those red backgrounds means that the NASDAQ and BTC.D (dominance) are falling at the same time, which is in my opinion often happening at a top, or in a bear market. Indeed, the stock market is still very correlated to cryptos, and a reduction in Bitcoin dominance means less capitalisation in the Bitcoin and more into altcoins.
A few short-term bearish arguments:
- We can't deny a double/triple top and lower highs in recent prices.
- Price is trading below monthly pivot point, which often means for traders a bearish outcome.
- RSI is ranging below the 50 mark (bearish), and is consolidating: a huge move is preparing.
=> My target if I were to short Bitcoin on the daily timeframe would be 53 000$ which is the monthly S2 pivot. However I do not short Bitcoin since I am swing trading long only, so currently in USDT.
Fundamentaly, the halving happened a few days ago, and as history shows the bull runs began way after the halving day. We could heard in French media that the price will be "halved". Maybe they were right !
No, of course, the real definition is the block rewards being divided by 2, which is a bad news for miners which are seeing their production price increase/ or rentability decrease, as you prefer. And this is a real issue with a potential impact on price. Bitcoin being close to ATH, miners would make sense to take their profit as the difficulty increase. We could also see a surge in Bitcoin transaction fees.
=> fundamentals remain good long term, short term not so much.
Back to pure price action, things are getting interesting.
Those red backgrounds means that the NASDAQ and BTC.D (dominance) are falling at the same time, which is in my opinion often happening at a top, or in a bear market. Indeed, the stock market is still very correlated to cryptos, and a reduction in Bitcoin dominance means less capitalisation in the Bitcoin and more into altcoins.
A few short-term bearish arguments:
- We can't deny a double/triple top and lower highs in recent prices.
- Price is trading below monthly pivot point, which often means for traders a bearish outcome.
- RSI is ranging below the 50 mark (bearish), and is consolidating: a huge move is preparing.
=> My target if I were to short Bitcoin on the daily timeframe would be 53 000$ which is the monthly S2 pivot. However I do not short Bitcoin since I am swing trading long only, so currently in USDT.
Nota
NADSAQ recovered most of its losses and wow, Bitcoin is up too! This is rassuring for the bulls however I am looking at RSI and waiting for a break above its descending trendline and above 50 before considering a long entry.
Nota
BTC went up from 54 to 64k$, as NASDAQ and stock indexes are also climbing back up. My swing trading Bitcoin strategy went long on may 4th at 63800$.However, what I would like to see, before considering that we are bullish again, is a clear break above this descending parallel channel in price, and rsi to also break above the 50 line, which could happen in the next few hours/days. If it doesn't, I'll keep you updated.
Operación activa
- Bitcoin break above its descending channel: check- RSI break above 50: check
- BTC.D up: check
- Stock market is back to its ATH: check
We are bullish again.
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