Bitcoin Slips Amid Israel-Iran Conflict

2 oct

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a sharp drop on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, triggering a significant sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. Investors, seeking refuge in safer assets, moved towards bonds, gold, oil, and the US Dollar, leaving Bitcoin and altcoins under heavy selling pressure. Despite historically strong performance in October, this sudden market disruption has put the cryptocurrency’s best month under early threat.

Geopolitical Tensions Cause Sharp Sell-off
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 3.16%, reaching $61,715 levels. Altcoins, including Ethereum, suffered even more, plunging between 5-10% as the war tension escalated following Iran’s launch of over 200 ballistic missiles on Israel. Bitcoin (BTC), which historically has seen an average gain of 25.81% in October, is now struggling to maintain its bullish seasonal trend, dropping by 4% in the first two days of the month.

Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets, described the drop as a "momentary setback," stating that October's favorable trends for Bitcoin are "alive and well." However, the broader market is expected to stay on edge as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises retaliation. Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $242 million, breaking an eight-day streak of inflows.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin (BTC) appears weak but is beginning to show signs of recovery. After testing the critical $60,000 support level, BTC has rebounded 0.75% in Wednesday’s market session, trading at $61,715. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47.49, reflecting neutral conditions but indicating a slight bearish tendency.

Bitcoin’s recent recovery, however, may be short-lived if geopolitical instability persists. The critical $65,000 resistance level remains a barrier to any significant upward movement, and a failure to break through could see Bitcoin revisiting $57,000, as some analysts predict.

Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin’s historical behavior post-Fed rate cuts could lead to a larger correction. If the pattern holds, the cryptocurrency could drop further before resuming its upward trajectory, targeting a potential low of $50,000 by mid-November.

Safe Haven Shift & Mining Pressure
The conflict in the Middle East has driven investors to flock to safe-haven assets, causing a temporary withdrawal from riskier assets like Bitcoin. The flight to safety has boosted the US Dollar, bonds, oil, and gold, while applying downward pressure on the broader crypto market.

Additionally, a report by JPMorgan highlighted declining revenues among Bitcoin mining companies, with September seeing the lowest levels recorded in recent months. This drop in miner profitability could trigger another wave of selling pressure if the mining sector experiences further capitulation, exacerbating the downward trend in Bitcoin’s price.

Despite the current challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. McNulty and others believe that as tensions in the Middle East cool down, Bitcoin’s historical performance in October could lead to a rally that pushes the cryptocurrency back towards its all-time high (ATH) of $73,000.

Historical Trends & Future Projections: Uptober Rally in Jeopardy?
Bitcoin (BTC) has enjoyed an average 25.81% gain in October when preceded by a green September. In line with this, data from BTC Archive suggests Bitcoin could surge to as high as $80,500 this month, as the crypto has consistently posted green candles in the last three months of the year.

Similarly, trading firm QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin has seen a 22.9% gain in eight out of the last nine Octobers. If this trend continues, BTC could rise to $78,000 or higher. However, for this to happen, Bitcoin will need to clear crucial resistance levels and weather any additional shocks from ongoing geopolitical conflicts.

Analysts have also pointed out that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong, and perp funding rates are approaching levels reminiscent of the early 2023 bull run. If these inflows persist, Bitcoin could see the support needed to break through to new highs before the year ends.

Conclusion
While Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to rally to new highs this month, the path will be far from straightforward. The Israel-Iran conflict, coupled with macroeconomic factors such as the US PMI data and Fed rate cuts, could create further volatility in the market. Still, Bitcoin's technical and fundamental strength may help it weather the storm and rebound toward its ATH as the year progresses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $61,715, up 0.73%, with momentum beginning to build for a potential rebound if market conditions stabilize. However, investors should remain cautious, as further geopolitical shocks could lead to more downward pressure in the short term.