Bitcoin / TetherUSCorto
BTC updated BEAR plan. Heading down.
Actualizado
First i want say that i linked my previous idea for you to see that we are following that same plan. Reason for me to update this on a new chart is to make this more readable. Still same targets i've updated there apply in this. In that previous chart i marked my ABC as WXY and also W:s subwaves as WXYXZ. For making this more understandable i changed them to ABC and their subwaves as normal 12345 for this retracement.
((Actually we are not retracing 6.5k to 10k as many think. This is larger upgoing retracement of downtrend and we are currently on B-wave in that but that's another story which i will publish later today let's just focus on this fake uptrend :) ))
NOTE: Always remember that there is NO trader in the whole world who get's it right everytime. No one. So always DYOD :)
So to the point:
We still have our targets which i will update if there's going to be changes. This is purely how i trade this. No one should follow me . Always make your research and then decide what to do. This is purely educational.
So where we are now in this chart. For keeping this short and simple, we are at large A-wave and it's 4th subwave going up. We had very conservative selling target at 8750 and i had target for entering short just above 8800. Both of them hit nicely. I dont think that was it and i see us still going a bit up to 8950. Doesnt matter if it does or not cause target 1 was 100% met and i am now in short position. So where do i close my short? Probably my closin target is just few dollars above 8k eventhough this should go to 7800-7950 leves.
Currently valid targets are (achieved target removed but you can check it from the previous chart) :
1. 7800-7950 (I will be closing short just above 8k)
2. 9k + (I will make more accurate estimate after 8k levels)
3. 7200-7400
4. Still hard to direction. Honestly i dont know yet
((Actually we are not retracing 6.5k to 10k as many think. This is larger upgoing retracement of downtrend and we are currently on B-wave in that but that's another story which i will publish later today let's just focus on this fake uptrend :) ))
NOTE: Always remember that there is NO trader in the whole world who get's it right everytime. No one. So always DYOD :)
So to the point:
We still have our targets which i will update if there's going to be changes. This is purely how i trade this. No one should follow me . Always make your research and then decide what to do. This is purely educational.
So where we are now in this chart. For keeping this short and simple, we are at large A-wave and it's 4th subwave going up. We had very conservative selling target at 8750 and i had target for entering short just above 8800. Both of them hit nicely. I dont think that was it and i see us still going a bit up to 8950. Doesnt matter if it does or not cause target 1 was 100% met and i am now in short position. So where do i close my short? Probably my closin target is just few dollars above 8k eventhough this should go to 7800-7950 leves.
Currently valid targets are (achieved target removed but you can check it from the previous chart) :
1. 7800-7950 (I will be closing short just above 8k)
2. 9k + (I will make more accurate estimate after 8k levels)
3. 7200-7400
4. Still hard to direction. Honestly i dont know yet
Nota
Im lousy at predicting time but valuable member of our trading group "Sensei Ichimoku" as we call him stated that dip will start in 6-8 hours. Dip to 7900 as is the next targetNota
If you like or dislike this plan then gimme some thumbs up and push the like button! :)Nota
There should be a bounce from 8470 to back upbut dont suggest anyone to trade that. I myself am just waiting for that second target. This was just to inform that people dont start to wonder that is that it.
Nota
Hold your horses :). It should start happening in 1-3 hrs :)Nota
As i said. Just in time. Also see where it bounced on binance: 8460. 8470 was my published first bounce point 7hrs ago. Almost perfect. Now we shall wait for it to hit my target at 7900ish. It may happen today or it may take few daysNota
Targets still apply1. 7800-7950 (I will be closing short just above 8k)
2. 9k + (I will make more accurate estimate after 8k levels)
3. 7200-7400
4. Still hard to direction. Honestly i dont know yet
Nota
If you want to see some magic again then the exact target in Binance BTC/USDT is 7830.I must again remind you that i am not an financial advisor. This is purely educational and i hope it will encourage you to learn trading for understanding the market. Never ever follow my targets blindly. Remember that no trader always hits he's/her targets. This is important to remember and a good reason to educate yourselves. Yours dearly Joppejoppe :)
Nota
Targets still apply in that order. Just remind you that these are swing trades i publish not daytrading so these moves may take several days. This is the last wave down (A5 on that chart) And it should have been more slowly moving than it actually is. But fine by me. I dont object making money faster. Well it seems that we are currently retracing back up probably to 8400ish levels and after that should come the last impulse down to that target 7800-7950.So targets apply
Nota
(To be exact 8390 should be the point where this will now go before going to our target). Im not trading this move. Not worth the risk but just to keep you informedNota
And one more :). So you dont get confused about my updates. Targets still apply and im still in short position aiming little above that 7800-7950 target for closing my short.Nota
Note:Im repeating myself but this is important. I am Elliot wave trader and i trade targets. It's high risk trading. I usually f..k up more trades than i succeed but it dont matter cause in the end i will always be making profit. And the point in this is what? DONT FOLLOW ME BLINDLY! :) . If trend changes to another direction. I am always prepared. I have very strict strategy to follow and i will never do nothing on fomo or for any other reason. For me it's all the same where bitcoin goes. Ill change from bull to bear in seconds if i have to. If you look at my previous charts you see that there are good stuff (havent published all swings ive made since started publishing with new alias) and there is bad stuff where my shorts or longs have been annihilitated. Why do these targets then hit now with almost 100% accuracy? Because i havent witnessed a wave structure as clear as this in several weeks
Nota
Update:I lowered my stoploss to 8400ish makin sure i get approximately 5% profit. there's i slight possibility that this will not go below 8k. I will keep targets still on and let the market decide whether it gives me nearly 5% or nearly 10% profit. There's a slight stench of truncation :). Either way im quite pleased. Ill update targets as this goes forward.
Nota
according to Sensei Ichimoku, something is about to happen in 2-4 hours. We predict it's our target 79800-7950 but 5th waves are always in risk being truncated especially when the major wave is about to end. but as i said that last update, i'm covered and cashing out decent profit so no worriesNota
sry 7800-7950 not 79800 :D79800 :D is probably a valid target in 2019 or 2020 :D
Nota
That sucker is trying to make a move upwards in 15minutes. We will put you down BTCNota
What did i just say! Down boy down!!Nota
If BTC goes above 8510 we have started the big turqoise B wave already because that invalidates my subwave count. I will not enter long after that automatically. I will wait for wave B:s sub wave B and make an entrypoint for long from little lower levels. Safe target is to aim appr 9k levels. We know that when we identify that subwave B of turqoise B. If this is the case that we are in B already then our target differed 130 dollars from the current bottom. Which is acceptable. Very interesting indeed to see what happens.Nota
Gotta get some sleep tonight :). I dont see much remarkable action happening before tomorrow. it's 23:45 currently in Finland. Targets slightly updated:
1. 8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-7999 OUR CURRENT TARGET (End of Turqoise wave A). My short closing point 8000-8050. Entering long below 8k. Current stoploss near 8400
3. 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form)
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
PS. I'm currently making a quick guide/manual for applying the indicators i use for trading in a very practical level. That manual's intention is not to teach you to trade but to make you understand this market and the price action inside it. I will also give a simple way to use Ichimoku on spotting the trendchanges but Sensei Ichimoku is our true expert in that and perhaps someday he will make his own manual concerning about that. This manual is of course free.
Nota
Update:First to targets: THEY STILL APPLY :)
So where am i now? My stop was triggered at 8400 and woke up on that and i made a re-entry to short position again from 8495 with a very tight stoploss at 8550. Now why did i do that. Risk/reward ratio is very good and it clearly lost its momentum when it tried to go up. Practically my subsubsubwave count was invalidated but in my subsub levels the count is still valid and as beautiful as it was before in 4hrs chart. So the targets still apply and Sensei Elliot is still in position aiming to 7950-7999(7830 should be the bottom)
Nota
Final dip to our target should start around 10:00-13:00 UTC.Nota
Ps. That was mine, not Sensei Ichimokus prediction in time so don't blame him if it doesn't happen. I admit that i suck at predicting times. So it may not be accurate :). If you are wondering that why isn't this moving to our target. Well if you look at Wave A1, it took 3.5 days to get to it's lowest point. We've rided this A5 for 2 days now. A1 and A5 are likely to be very similar considering that A3 was very aggressive. Usually 5th wave is pretty lagging wave.Nota
What a beautiful bearflag we have!!!!! You are so going down BTC :)Nota
So, there's should be one more wave down. I now move my targets to match with my short closing point. There's a possibility it wont go below 8k. Im closing my position at 8050ish but i will not move long if it doesnt go below 8k. not worth the risk. This is updated target list. There will be more targets when we have more info about the B-wave when it starts And of course the C wave gives as atleast 2-3 decent trades before it lands 1. 8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 OUR CURRENT TARGET (End of Turqoise wave A). My short closing point 8050ish. Entering long below 8k. Current stoploss near 8300
3. 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
Nota
One more adding. It should go below 8k to 7830 but the problem is that i still have a small stench of truncation in this whole A5 so it can fade. This wont change my short closing target. It hasn't moved anywhere as you can see above. As the B then starts after we reach the bottom of this big A i will update the targets as we get them counted. Until that the 9k is safely valid long for me and i dont see it changing much but there will be probably atleast 1 bonus trade which i will definately cash out :)Nota
Boooyay!! :)Short closed and target nro 2 achieved :). 9,14% gains. This was good swing. I will update next targets when we are certain that the bottom is met. I wont go long above 8k. I would have to place my stop too far and i am strict about my risk/reward rules. But we should go below nicely :).
Nota
So. There's either one more impulse to below 7900 but for me it's irrelevant (that magical 7830). Im in long position. I entered long in 7950s and my stoploss is at approximately 3% down from that. So we are about to start the big B wave. It will be shorter in timeframe as this A was. Make a note also that this is the wave i have to biggest probability to got it wrong. So be prepared for that. So i decided not to add those bonus targets. Then why cant i add them? For two reasons. I cannot make as accurate estimates where those waves BA , BB will hit. But i can make estimates accurate enough for me to trade them. Where to close my shorts and longs. Now if my estimates fail the good thing is that i dont have to close my longs in there because i "know" that BC (End of wave B) will hit atleast 9k but i definately have to stoploss my shorts. The other reason is that it's almost guaranteed that there is someone among you who would follow those bonus targets blindly and with almost 100% certainty they will lose money in it. Dont murder me for this :DTARGET UPDATE (nothing changed)
1. 8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
3. 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
Nota
A video suggestion to understand how i think and how you should think if you are a trader. Thanks for CryptoCow for linkin me this video! youtube.com/watch?v=el10dgDa2Do&feature=youtu.be
Nota
Make a note that this B(turqoise in chart) can take days to complete. One possibility is that we are still in A wave (to be exact A555) When we reach above 8220 it's confirmed that this is B. Even if this is the B it is very possible for us to go slightly below, so dont panic :). I dont see that we necessary have the confirmation today. But it dont matter. We are swing traders, we have time. Targets are still validNota
Sorry for late update but on the other hand my last update already stated that B wave is confirmed after 8220. So let the ride begin towards 9k(ish) with the Big B. Ill update that 9k target when we get more info for making an exact estimate how high it will hit. This B should take days so grant yourself a relaxed weekend off btc.Targets apply :)
Ps. Our team was reinforced with another ichimoku sensei today. We are becoming very strong team.
Nota
TARGET UPDATE (nothing changed) 1. 8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
3. CURRENT TARGET: 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
Nota
Note: There's a slight possibility that we are still in wave A. Wont make any difference to our targets but so you know.Nota
Actually the more i look at this it seems that we are still in A. And it didnt pick up my 8730 low point. Well Im still in long so it makes no difference. :)Nota
Sorry typo. it didnt pick up my magical 7830 target. So anyways im still long with same stoploss at 7750ish. Just so you guys know and dont panic if we once more go below 8k before start the journey to 9k :)Nota
Forget everything i posted in 2 hrs. We are in B. False alarm. I definately need some more sleep.... So still heading for 9k (target 3)Nota
I will make a new chart with subwaves BA, BB and BC of this B wave when we have more exact estimate how they will be formed. I doubt that it will be possible today. So targets still apply and heading for target 3 = 9k. Our group has been in long position since 7950ish1. 8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
3. CURRENT TARGET: 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
Nota
Heading for sleep. Nothing new yet. might drop near 8k. dont panic, dont fomo. Always know what trade you are buying. goodnight. Targets still valid :)Nota
First of all. I want to say that TARGETS ARE STILL VALID!!!! :)So target number 3 is on the way. Ill post my strongest scenariio how this turqoise B will play out. Now DO NOT TRADE THIS, THIS IS PURELY A SCENARIO! The purpose of this is to visualize how the price can drive roller coaster before it reaches the target at the end of B (target number 3). This may well take a week or more to get there. So be patient and most importan thing. DO NOT FOLLOW BLINDLY THIS OR ANYOTHER IDEA.
Nota
TARGET UPDATE:So now i have finished the roadmap how I will trade this. My count was confirmed bout 2 hours ago, I've marked these bonus swings as bonus target 1 and 2 because they are the targets before the target number 3 ( 9k ) which i will trade before that. DO NOT TRADE THESE BONUS TRADES!. If you do, you do it because you came in that same conclusion not because i pointed these. These are higher risk trades than just aiming to 9k. So here's the Updated list
8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
Bonustarget 1: 8650 ( I will close my long and enter Short)
Bonustarget 2: 8300 (I will close my short and enter Long)
3. CURRENT TARGET: 9k (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
SO targets still apply, those bonustargets were there to point out that there will be lot of price action before 9k and that we are also trading before that
Nota
So that people dont panic. We will go down a bit more to 8300 levels and then we will start wave BA5 to 8650 regions. Like ive said before, i am lousy at predicting time but considering how long this whole BA has took (and still not finished) it will probably be sunday until we are at 9k :).Nota
If you want to know how i trade, this is a "manual" i wrote about it. Feel free to use it to learndrive.google.com/file/d/1l6Jl60uR7ixfktkiJNSnWTCJb-i23XiH/view?usp=sharing
Nota
Dont know if that link works so here's the new linkdrive.google.com/file/d/18gnLZkH7RngoRW-C9_F1vNUeiXsEG4xp/view?usp=sharing
Nota
So it starts to seem clear that our bonus trades are wrecked. Since we are still in long position from 7950 it's not a problem ( no wins, no losses) BUT it starts to get also clear we aint going to break 9k. Ill update targets in few hours.Nota
For people not to panic. It's very likely we are not hitting 9k but we should be hitting atleast 8800. Ill update the targetlist when ive identifien the bottom of this B wave of B (BB)Nota
TARGET UPDATE1.8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
Bonustarget 1: 8650 Wrecked!! No wins no losses ( im still long from 7950)
Bonustarget 2: 8300 Wrecked because bonustarget 1 was wrecked. No wins no losses
3. CURRENT TARGET: 8800-8900 (so called guaranteed target, will be defined more accurately once the wave starts to form) and one Bonus trade likely to come before that
4. 7200-7400 (Depends where target 3 hit's)
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
So 9k target has been dropped to 8800-8900 levels and my bonus targets got basically wrecked. So still going up with the wave BB
Nota
If we go below 8100 then ill start to worry. Not before that i dont :)Nota
To visualize the plan to target 3Market guide:
drive.google.com/file/d/18gnLZkH7RngoRW-C9_F1vNUeiXsEG4xp/view?usp=sharing
Nota
Also make a note that after completing this wave B we have possibly formed pretty nice bearflag! :)Nota
if it bounces from here (8150ish), then targets are still valid. If it goes to 8050 the targets must be recalculatedNota
And if it goes below 7900 then we are heading down hardNota
Before 22.00 UTC today we have decided to give BTC a lesson what happens when it tries to go down before we get to close our longs. We will first put him back above 8400 and when we have finally kicked him to above 8700 before sunday and closed our shorts we are gonna slap him so hard that he will fall near 7000.Nota
(Sorry closed our longs not shorts ,)Nota
My current position:Still in long position. Closing that above 8700 and entering short after that. Sorry about that confusing update 30minutes ago. Still long with stoploss at 7950
Nota
Comment: TARGET UPDATE 1.8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
Bonustarget 1: 8650 Wrecked!! No wins no losses ( im still long from 7950)
Bonustarget 2: 8300 Wrecked because bonustarget 1 was wrecked. No wins no losses
3. CURRENT TARGET: 8800-8900 ( im still in long position from 8950 . I will close my long above 8700 and enter short around 8800. Stoploss at 7950 still at the moment
4. 7200
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
So 9k target has been dropped to 8800-8900 levels and my bonus targets got basically wrecked. So still going up with the wave BB
Nota
TARGET UPDATE 1.8750 -> 100% hit Wins/Losses = 0% (no position)
2. 7950-8050 -> 100% hit Wins / Losses = +9,14% (short closed)
Bonustarget 1: 8650 Wrecked!! No wins no losses ( im still long from 7950)
Bonustarget 2: 8300 Wrecked because bonustarget 1 was wrecked. No wins no losses
3. CURRENT TARGET: 8650-8750 ( im still in long position from 8950 . I will close my long above 8600 and i dont enter short immediately after that. Ill wait because it seems that it might still go above 9k trough extended BC wave. Stoploss at 7950 still at the moment
4. 7200
5. Still a mystery. After reaching target number 4 there will be no position until confirmation of the trend is clear.
So it retraced to 0.786 from BA :). well no problem. yet.
Nota
What a nice price to wake up :). So my stoploss triggered and now im on short. I will update exact targets/target in few hours. But basically it's 6550ish where im aiming. Probably going for new chart now that my plan was annihilated. There should be one good bouncepoint before that.Was my count wrong? Possibly. Or was it X-Wave failure? Possibly.
Nota
Summary of this trade plan from 14th may - 23th may:
Wins/losses total (fees incl): + 8,94%
Targets achieved: 2/4
Nota
Cutting my short at 7800. Puzzle solved. Will be posting new chart in few hours :)Nota
There should be an nice shortkiller to above 9k :)Nota
UPDATE:
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