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BTC updated bearplan vol 2 with new targets

Actualizado

Last scenario which i linked here is invalidated but it still made appr 9% gains so in profit making it was very good but the time it took was way too long for me atleast. For me it doesnt matter whether it was correct, truncated, incorrect etc. If you are a trader it doesnt matter to you. If you try to proof that my count was wrong then you have to think with yourself that are you a trader. Just clarifying that it is waste of time to proof me wrong. My counts fail all the time and that's part of the game. Cutting losses is the key and strict strategy.

So to this new chart

I moved back to use WXY, WXYZX pattern. I want to highlight that this is now very very very advanced trading so if you do not know 100% what you are doing, dont trade. One reason to move X-retracement pattern is to diminish any critic concerning this count cause nobody can argue WXY,WXYZX . Variation and rules that apply to them in modern trading are infinite. So dont even try :). Second reason is that i still see this as X-patter as i like to call it.

My guidelines for this scenario :Stoplosses well planned and positions closed atleast 100 dollars before they hit. Now i promise you that this roadmap will change before we reach the goal for this scenario. Ill keep it updated.

DO NOT FOLLOW ME BLINDLY. Always know what position you are entering and why you are doing it.

TARGETS:

1. 7670-7750 (I will enter long with stoploss just below 7670)
2. 8800-8999 (I will close short in 8800ish and enter short between 8900-8999, stoploss just above 9k)
3. 7200 ( i will close my short at 7400ish)
4. Impossible to say.

(Ps. do not mind that tiny turqoise line there. Just speculation where this will rise before target 1)

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And to keep you informed:I will also entry in to short if below 7500. Then there will be target changes

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Picture first:

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That is the scenario that will follow if that bearish channel breaks down. Now i have 2 theories. One is the chart pic and other is this.

As you know i am currently off position. But here's how i will play this no matter what happens now that i have defined two paths in this shich ever hits first:
1. it goes to 8200-8300 levels, then ill move to short and target atleast 7600 level
2. it goes 7600-7700 levels, then ill move to long and target level 8200-8300.

This is my current roadmap. I will update when i have position and where im going to do my closing with it

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So i am long till 8200. If it drops below 8550 im in short.

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Soryy if it drops below 7550 il short. Now im long until 8200

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Stoploss almost triggered. Still in long position.

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So as you read 2 hours ago. Im in short now :). Actually we all are at the moment. Some are trying to catch a bounce from 7400, some are waiting for 6800. Point is, that we are going down now which makes me exhited cause that's where i am at my best :).

So my target is 6800 and my stop is at 7700 but i will start lowering it as we approach the 6800. If my stoploss triggers at 7700. I will make not enter until i can make a new estimate where to hit. Always know the next target. If you trade by feeling that this is gonna go down, then you are wrecked. :)

TARGET UPDATA
Short till 6800

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There's a chance that it will retrace now to 7880 which would trigger my stoploss again below 7700. But ill let the market decide that. after hitting 7880 it will start wave down to 6800 target. Other option is that it will go 6800 straight and bounces from there to 7500. We shall see. Ill keep you updated

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Heading to bed now :). 3 stoplosses triggered today. - 6.57 % from this scenario so far. Currently . in no position. Target to 6800 is still valid, way to get there is unclear. I will enter short above 7800 or below 7400. Currently no trading zone. In the meantime learn how i think and why doesn't it matter that 3 stoplosses get triggered.
drive.google.com/file/d/18gnLZkH7RngoRW-C9_F1vNUeiXsEG4xp/view?usp=sharing

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I have 2 scenarios now how we will go to 6800-6900. Now which ever it is, it will be clear probably today. Ei will enter short below 7400. Not an inch before that :)
I will post the chart here when it is confirmed.

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Still in short position from 7390. this should be pretty straight forward landing to my target. Should..... :)

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Still in short position heading to 6800. I will close my short just below 7k. BUT if my short gets wrecked at 7570-7590 levels i wont enter trade until i had clear plan.
Target still 6800 applies :)

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Stoploss triggered. So im off position :). Now we must patiently wait for a new entrypoint. Can take days. Just have to be patient. Ill keep posted.

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This is the count im currently seeing this. Not going to position still. Have to get confirmation.

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We are currently assessing whether we move into position at above 7700 (Short). We have pretty nice ichi supporting this and my wave count and also almost identical similarity with start of feb 2018 (yeah i know, it not comparable, but still very nice looking.
R/R in this move is 8.49 and possible gains when exiting early 11%.

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TARGET UPDATE:
1: 7750 (i am not in position but moving to short position around here 7700-7750 with stoploss tightly above 7800)
2. 6800 (Closing short probably slightly above 7k)
3. ?

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TARGET UPDATE
I am not in position currently
1: 7850 (Moving to short above this)
2. 6800 ( closing short slightly above 7k)

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Like this:

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I dont see 6800 happening anymore. It will violate too much now the bottom of the triangle. Earlier today it would have been allowed to go below with a wick but now it starts to look unlikely
So:
TARGET UPDATE
I am not in position currently
1: 7850 (Moving to short above this)
2. 7k ( closing short slightly above 7k)

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Still perfectly proceeding to our targets. May take time till tomorrow. We shall see.

TARGET UPDATE :
I am not in position currently
Profits/losses from this scenario at the moment: -6,57%
1: 7850 (Moving to short position around here)
2. 7k ( closing short slightly above 7k)

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It starts to get clear that we aint gonna reach target 1. So we are heading straight to target 2 (7k) . I am not moving to long there . Too risky. It should start new uptrend to atleast 9k but i will wait to get a confirmed 1st wave and when 2nd wave have traced enough i will make my entry point to few dollars higher that wave 1:s high.

Ill keep updating

TARGET UPDATE :
I am not in position currently
Profits/losses from this scenario at the moment: -6,57%
NO CONFIRMED TARGETS

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Last update is still valid so ill just wait and watch. We just have to be patient before entering position. Counting Elliot is possible and actually fairly easy but i get 4 different counts that all makes sense and they point to different targets so no trading zone for now.

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Twitter opened: @senseielliot
twitter.com/SenseiElliot?s=09

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We moved to long. Many things added up. RSI bullish, Falling wedge, 5min chart HnS target at Kraken differed only 5 dollars, bottom of the BIG triangle was pierced with a wick etc. and Risk/reward is phenomenal. With odds on our side we welcome the shortkiller to 9k to begin. It might di a bit still

We will be heading to 9k but there will be mid targets cause this swing IF it plays out will probably take bout a week to get through.
I will post targets when confirmation

NOW DO NOT FOLLOW. AGAIN VERYVERY RISKY.

twitter.com/SenseiElliot?s=09

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2 more ladders to get my long tank filled

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So let's see where this goes. I will probably exit around 7600-7700 if it has the strenght to carry that far with the 1:st wave. Then re-entry somewhere at 0.618 to aim 9k. We shall. See . I will post exact targets when we get confirmation. We are long since 7050-7150 with laddered buys.

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TARGET UPDATE :
I am in long position currently from 7050-7150 with laddered buy ins as youve read 15hrs ago

Profits/losses from this idea scenario at the moment: -6,57% (last 3 trades with stops triggered. You can read those above)

Target: 9k

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We might soon start small retracement to 7150. Normal price action in wave 1. Dont panic but still always prepare for the worst. Target still apply

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Target still 9k. Im making small moves before that since this will take time to get there probably. I will not post those small moves here. You can follow them on twitter:
twitter.com/SenseiElliot?s=09

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So as seen in twitter we closed our longs above 7500 and re-entered at 7270 back to long position. It will probably go to 7100-7200 by tomorrow or even bit under 7100 but not worth to try and miss the ride with wave 3. We made a quite nice short term swing and that was sufficient to make sure that we have nice extra profit for this whole scenario or atleast in worst case scenario if this starts to collapse we have a free ride even if pur stops trigger at 7k. But if i or our group make any extra moves before 9k i will post them to twitter, not here. I wont do any extra moves below 8k.

Target Update:
Im in long from re-entry at 7270

Profits losses from this whole idea scenario:
- 1,92% ( our nice little move from yesterday made nice small profit)

TARGET: 9k

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Ps. I have 4 stops triggered in this scenario so far and only one closed profit position. Forgot to count that one before on profits/losses but it's now calculated inside that last update.

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Still seems there's still time to the big 3rd wave.

My fast swing moves before 9k:
twitter.com/SenseiElliot?s=09

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Start buckling your seatbelts. The shortkiller to 9k region is about to start. And once it starts there's gonna be a hella good volume spike. It may still dip to 7400+ before that but we are fully tanked again for the 9k. Now we predict it doesnt necessarily hit 9k anymore so the ultimate target is lowered to 8900 to get a safe exit. It may or may not hit 9k. Dont make any difference to us. After we have closed our longs, i will post a new chart with new targets once we get them

TARGET UPDATE:

8900 dollars

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Stop triggered, again lol. Waiting for new entry at 722X or 768X which ever hits first . Below 7050 is crash pattern activation

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If you have been long since week ago below 7100 you are in very very good position in my opinion. We have made short term trades inside these last 6 days and my profit/loss is approximately 0% at the moment compared to my original plan to just stick to my long from 7100ish. So not very profitable. This is how i see this currently. Ultimate target is 8900 but i dont see that happening this week

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Target still remains BUT there's a slight possibility that we will go very low before that. I see this whole scenario to last atleasti this month. What if we are still in D.....? :)

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This is how i see this at the moment:

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This is more traditional perspective to this and also very probable. My next steps are long entries which ever hits first: above 7790 OR below 6900

TARGET UPDATE

8800 (lowering as the time flies)

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To explain this chart: The greenline which hit's 7409 in my chart is a current bottom i wait this wave 2 to make, just didnt move that ending of wave 2 there cause it's not relevant at this point as i am expecting "double bottom". Other possibility is that it breaks that and goes to 7100 levels. So we are not yet ready to start aggressive wave 3 to above 8k levels. Luckily

Target still stands near 9k

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Snapshot i published 7th June up there starts to look very valid. As i tweeted this morning: Im on short position from 7350

Ill post more at night :).

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Green line is where it should now hit as it broke. Ill post the whole Elliot count after my kids go to sleep in 6 hours

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That count will be changed since i dont believe that we are in wave 1 anymore

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Lol. Like i said. we are not in wave 1 anymore. Should be clear to all now. Ok. I shorted from 7350ish to 6950ish as people followed my twitter knows. This whole published scenario made me a 0,67% profit with multiple stops triggered and only 3 trades succeeded. So am i happy? No i am not! I dont care that i made profit above 0% because now the total profit from over a month(!) is 9,81% (Scenario 1 and 2). It should be atleast 20%/month. I dont remember as lousy time period as this. Partially i blame the low volume and volatility. but partially myself.

I will make a new chart when i have something decent to publish. In my opinion, the crash pattern is activated now. and we are heading down regardless of any possible short squeezes. I wont go massively short until below 6400 nor i will not go long until 7600 and above. Keep following my twitter to know my moves before publishing new chart: @senseielliot (yes, with 1 t-letter, lol).

Watch for 7k and what happens there if it hits it and also watch out for 6400.

JoppeJoppe

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por JoppeJoppe

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