Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Probabilities for the Next Market Cycle

26 sept

Looking at this weekly chart of Bitcoin, it appears that the price is moving within a well-defined upward channel, which suggests a higher probability of continued bullish movement over the long term.

1. Channel Boundaries: Upper Boundary: The top of the channel represents a key resistance level. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has tested this upper boundary during major bull runs, increasing the probability of future tests of this level.
   Lower Boundary: This line serves as long-term support, as every significant dip has bounced back from or near this lower boundary. This indicates a higher probability that it will act as a support level during future price declines.
   
   
2. Cycle Probabilities:First Red Line (Cycle Top Probability - Nov 2025):
   
   Based on this chart, there is a high probability of a cycle peak around December 1, 2025, where the price could reach approximately 118K.
   
   This potential aligns with historical Bitcoin cycles, where bull runs tend to follow halvings, suggesting an increased likelihood of a rally in late 2025.
   
   Second Red Line (Cycle Bottom Probability - Nov 2026):
   After a potential peak, there's a probability of a significant correction around November 2026, where Bitcoin might retrace by nearly 46% from the expected high, falling toward 65K. This scenario reflects historical post-peak corrections in Bitcoin’s previous cycles.
   
   
3. Historical Patterns:
   The price movement within this channel shows that Bitcoin has a higher probability of experiencing strong bull rallies toward the upper end of the channel, followed by steep corrections. This pattern repeats approximately every 3-4 years, which increases the likelihood that the next cycle will behave similarly.
   
   The projected rally for late 2025 and subsequent correction in 2026 closely match past bull-bear cycles.
   
   
4. Key Levels to Watch:Support Levels:
   The lower boundary of the channel will be crucial in the event of a substantial price drop after the potential peak. There’s a higher probability that the price will bounce from this level, given historical data.
   
   Resistance Levels:
   The upper boundary of the channel serves as significant resistance, particularly around the projected high in late 2025.
   Next Price Targets Based on Probabilities: Short-Term: Over the next few months, there’s a strong probability that Bitcoin will retest the middle of the channel, around $70,000 - $73,000, where it previously found resistance.
   
   Mid-Term (2025): A breakout toward the upper channel could lead Bitcoin to new all-time highs, likely closer to $100,000+, based on historical data and the high probability of cyclical behavior.
   
   Long-Term (2026): After a potential peak, there's a probability of a correction down to $64,000, which would still align with the long-term bullish trend within the channel.
   
   
   
5. Conclusion: The probabilities favor Bitcoin continuing its long-term upward trend, with a potential cycle top in late 2025 and a likely correction in 2026. The channel provides a framework for watching potential breakout or breakdown levels based on historical probabilities.