🔥 Bitcoin & Today's FED Interest Rate Hike Overview

14 dic 2022

Today there's another FED interest rate decision. As seen on the chart below, the market has priced in a 0.50% rate hike, as opposed to the 0.75% hikes we've seen over the past meetings.


(from this website cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)


Since the 0.50% hike has been priced in for 80%, I'm not expecting a major bullish move in case the FED will actually hike with 0.50%. In contrary, if the FED decides to hike with 0.75% we will see a huge bearish move because it's a negative surprise for the market.

Most important aspect of tonight will be the statement by FED chair Powell. He will share his vision on future rake hikes, pauses and eventual cuts. The expected scenario at this point in time is a 0.25% hike in February, a 0.25% hike in March and a pause (0%) in May. A confirmation of this scenario will be bullish, a deviation from this scenario will be bearish.

Tomorrow and Friday we will see how the market will digest Powell's statement. Since big players can't move a lot of money in the last two hours of trading we will see the "real" move over the next two days.

As for BTC, I'm cautiously bullish. We're severely overbought at the moment, but that's what you get with high-impact news releases. Looking at the bullish channel for now, with a move to the $18,200 to $18,500 area as one of the possibilities.