My plan: Take a "Long position"

4 sept

Hello, Guys😉

Without further ado, let’s dive right into the main content.

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In short, I believe Bitcoin is positioned for a price increase.

I’ll explain this outlook through three key arguments,

starting with the first one.

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✅ Reason 1.

I’ve applied the Bollinger Bands to Bitcoin’s daily chart.

Currently, the price is rebounding after touching the lower band.

Support and resistance often occur at the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands.

In this case, the price first hit the upper band, followed by a touch of the lower band—typically a precursor to a rebound.

Let’s verify this with some historical examples.


✔️Example 1.

This is the chart from January 2024.

At that time, the price followed a similar pattern, first hitting the upper band, then touching the lower band.

Following this, the price rebounded sharply and eventually hit a new "All-time high".


✔️Example 2.

Now, take a look at this chart from February 2023.

Once again, the price touched the upper band, followed by the lower band, and we saw four consecutive green candles afterward, leading to a significant rally.


✔️Example 3.

This is the chart from February 2022.

Despite a prevailing downtrend, we witnessed a technical bounce after the price touched the upper band and then dropped to the lower band.

A significant rebound followed, even in the midst of bearish market conditions.

Now, let’s shift back to the current chart.

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✅ Reason 2.

Next, let's take a look at the rising channel formed by three critical points.

I find this channel quite interesting.

When focusing on the Half Line, it has consistently provided clear support and resistance levels.

Recently, we saw the price being rejected at this channel, which further reinforces its reliability.

However, the price has currently broken below the channel.

If it manages to rebound and reenter, we could witness a significant upward movement.

This pattern is commonly referred to as a "Trap," a frequent occurrence in technical analysis.


✔️Example 1.

This is the chart from December 2023.

We had a rising channel based on three key points.

After a sharp drop, the price broke below the channel but quickly recovered, forming a "Trap" pattern before rising to the opposite end of the channel.


✔️Example 2.

Now, take a look at the chart from March 2024.

Once again, we see a rising channel formed by three key points.

After ten consecutive green candles, the price hit a peak and dropped.

Despite breaking below the channel, the price quickly recovered, forming another "Trap" pattern and continued to rise, holding the middle line of the channel.


✔️Example 3.

Here’s a chart from November 2023.

This rising channel was formed by connecting the lower trendline and the peak.

After a price drop, the price broke below the lower trendline, forcing many retail investors to exit their positions.

However, the price soon rebounded and eventually broke out of the channel to the upside.

This time, the "Trap" pattern appeared twice, triggering multiple exits from the market.


✅ Reason 3.

The third reason involves the "3 Market Phases" pattern.

This pattern typically unfolds in three distinct stages: Contraction, Expansion, and Profit Taking.

• First, Contraction occurs, which stabilizes the price range and makes investors feel comfortable.
  
• Next, the Expansion phase kicks in, causing volatility and confusion, often leading investors to get stopped out.
  
• Finally, the Profit Taking phase occurs, sparking a "FOMO" (fear of missing out) sentiment among investors as the price moves rapidly.
  

This pattern is often leveraged by market manipulators to shake out retail investors before a larger price movement.

Let’s take a look at some past examples to see this in action.


✔️Example 1.

Here’s the chart from January 2024.

It showcases a textbook example of the 3 Market Phases:

Contraction stabilized the price range,
Expansion created volatility and confusion,
and Profit Taking resulted in a strong uptrend.


✔️Example 2.

Now, here’s the chart from June 2023.

Again, we see a classic case of the 3 Market Phases pattern.

During the Expansion phase, the price breached both the upper and lower bounds, forcing retail investors to stop out. This was followed by a strong directional trend.

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✅ [Conclusion]

• First reason: Bollinger Bands
  
• Second reason: The Channel
  
• Third reason: 3 Market Phases
  

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Now, for the final conclusion of today’s post

I am anticipating a significant upward move.

As long as the three reasons mentioned today remain valid, I remain confident in this bullish setup.

This is a historically high-probability scenario, and I personally plan to take a "long position."

Thank you for reading, and if you found this analysis helpful, please consider giving it a boost and following me for future updates.

✔️ This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
✔️ It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only.
✔️ All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.