BTCUSD Momentum Flagging but unable to push lower for now

15 jul 2018

Sorry if you're getting spammed for alerts. For some reason TradingView is not publishing my idea properly I've had to attempt a few times now.

Based on RSI , market geometry and EW, I think this may be a probable path.

The bear trend seems to have reached exhaustion and bulls are willing to buy below 6k but unwilling to chase the price up. We will encounter stiff resistance at the ichimoku cloud and 200 SMA (not shown on chart) as well as the upper trendline of the falling wedge .

I have found a lot of confluence at the 5880 level as well as 4800 but it seems we are unable to push much lower than we are for now. We could very well go sideways for a few days before any substantial movement, but I think we need some fresh FOMO before we can make a new low.

We could fall further than 5880 but in the immediate term it seems unlikely given the lack of momentum in either direction. The daily MACD histogram is slightly ticking up and RSI continues to show a slight uptrend.

We are likely to overshoot the bottom trendline of the wedge when we get there sometime in a couple months. VPR shows 4800 as a strong level of support. If we shoot past and don't form a bull wick and see it quickly bought up it would be very bearish . We could spend months in that range.


The indicator I'm using at the bottom is RSI candlesticks provided by my friend cI8DH Check out his page and give him a like.
RSI Candles

Here is the bigger picture, I think there are a lot of confluences supporting this view

16 jul 2018

Nota

I'm really enjoying the RSI candlesticks indicator. Looking at the entire correction in fairly simple terms just channels and trends it seems like we really will reach a conclusion sometime in late september once daily RSI gets into the teens-- provided we don't break out of the downtrend on the next test of resistance.

16 jul 2018

Nota

@ProwdClown brought up a good point. It's not necessary for us to make a LOWER low in price to make a lower low in RSI. We may very well put in a higher low in price while making a lower RSI low which would be very strong bullish divergence on the daily and would signal a huge reversal.

On the downside, there's no guarantee 6k support will hold and we could very well be heading to the low 4's sooner than depicted. This week will be telling

17 jul 2018

Nota

So this happened....



I have to admit I did not expect this kind of volume or ferocity on the move up. As I'm not-so-secretly a bull I'm hoping it isn't a trap and we are able to blast through resistance at the downtrend line, but it's gonna be tough. Waiting to see what happens when we encounter that resistance.

19 jul 2018

Nota

It's a difficult wave count, but it seems like we are destined to try again at resistance. This is just an idea but we may be in an expanding triangle. I'd normally dismiss this as not a likely case but the alternative is an impulsive move downward and it doesn't seem like the selling pressure is there based on RSI and AO.



Alternately we may be starting an ending diagonal 5th wave. Either way it's going to be a slow crawl up and not very far i think.

22 jul 2018

Nota

If we keep hitting algo targets to the tick, the expanding triangle may very well be the pattern