Bitcoin: Major Resistance Area Watch Reversal.

28 jul

Bitcoin is now retesting the 68K to 70K range resistance area. It is reasonable to anticipate greater selling pressure or an absence of buying within this zone which is evidenced by previous range history. This suggests higher risk for longs on larger time frames, even though there is still potential to test the 70K area over the coming week. One helpful hint (or confirmation) is how the current inside bar formation plays out.

How you navigate this environment begins with the type of trade you are looking for on the onset. This means BEFORE you even open a chart, you NEED to come to the market with some sort of intention. "To make money" is vague and is more likely to lead to reactive behavior (typical of retail traders). This analysis is geared toward swing traders who are looking at larger time frames such as 1 hour, 4 hour, daily time frames, etc. This information can be utilized by day traders, but more detailed evaluation would be required for smaller time frames.

In the case of Bitcoin now, the "helpful hint" that I just referred to is how the market chooses to process the current inside bar (see arrow). At this time the candle is still open and has a number of hours before it closes which means there is no guarantee we get the inside bar. Assuming we do get it, they key for swing traders here is a break and CLOSE below the 66,500 area (previous candle low). Such an event can lead to a retest of the 66 to 64K support in the coming week. Also notice the previous candle is "pin bar" like and appears to be a failed high relative to the 68,300 high made earlier. This is another typical sign of an absence of buying.

While the short side is compelling, you will notice my illustrated scenario starts out going higher first. This can be the outcome IF the inside bar is closed and high taken out. Which would be a continuation of the bullish momentum and potentially test the 70K level. This scenario is more appropriate for shorter time frame long strategies (day trades on 5 min etc.). Again such a scenario requires confirmations on such time frames which is what my Trade Scanner Pro is best at.

No ONE knows where any market will be in the future. We can gather clues and gauge short term strength or weakness which we can reference for a short term projection. With that comes a probability and risk assessment. It is amazing to me how many are fooled by complex charts and "experts" claiming to know the future. Trade ideas BEGIN with a "premise", or scenario that MUST be anticipated which should be within reason relevant to a given time frame. Otherwise, if you react to information, you will quickly join the herd mentality which puts you in the category of those who are the source of profit for the marketplace. You may have a glamorous view of this business but let me remind you that this is nothing more than a game of capitalizing on the mistakes of others.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.