BTC: A Macro View in the search for Trend Reversal.

25 jun 2018

BTC: A Macro View in the search for Trend Reversal. Using some Fractals, Trendlines, MAs, RSI, Stormgewehr Divergences and a little officialmcafee & Hopium!

This is not yet another BTC to 1M post, however, it's easy to see why people believe BTC may eventually reach ~1M - As per the Key, the white line is the 'McAfee / Hopium' Line. There is as much chance this reversal won't play out the way I have annotated, as there is of us not getting to 1M - If you're fluid, just like the markets, and manage your risk properly, you'll have no issues.

The focus of this post is on Trend Reversal from Bear Market to Bull Market, I'm certainly not the most experienced of traders out there, but these are the kind of signals I look for at lower TFs and they work great for me. Everyone needs there own system and using mine, this is what I see.

As much talked about by other traders, the pace of this Bear Market is somewhat accelerated when compared to 2014. The white Hopium line, after the accumalation phase is pure guess work, no TA involved. (And I appreciate that McAfee said 2020 - which would invalidate this setup)

These are the signals I'm looking for signs of, and as confirmation of a Trend Reversal:

1. Mass Capitulation Event not a slow bleed (40% Candle inc. Wick)
2. Lower RSI Trendline failure and reversal in the Target Area
3. Upper RSI Trendline Breakout and successful retest
4. RSI levels to move in to and remain in Bull Market zone (Above 50)
5. A phase of Accumulation which is likely essential for another bull run to gain momentum
6. A bounce off or a hold above the EMA200
7. A Hidden Bullish Divergence showing on my latest favourite indicator (Stormgewehr 44) credit @thestormishere_

Target Dates / $ Ranges - (IF this plays out....)

-July 2018: Range high ~$7500 (No higher than Feb Weekly close lows)
-August / September 2018: Mass Capitulation event ~40% candle inc. wick upon invalidation of 2016-2017 Trendline
-August 2018 - ~Summer 2019 Accumulation Phase
-2021: Post-Halving, back to ATH levels, further Mass Adoption, Media Coverage, Retail Trader FOMO etc
- ~2023 McAfee / Hopium ~1M ??? - Probably not lol.

All views and opinions are welcomed :)

Thanks for reading.