Likely top for BTC coming in the next 48 hours
This incredible, nearly-parabolic reversal has surprised more than a few analysts, this one included. While many anticipated the "double inverted head and shoulders" would take BTC above $8,000, the long-term bear trend with lower lows combined with shorter-term technical indicators had me anticipating a pullback before this point.
Profit-taking on long positions on Bitfinex and Bitmex has been aggressive, as seen by the sharp drop in longs on this chart. Smart money is already exiting.
The daily RSI is through the roof.
For those of us still in long positions: how will we determine a good exit?
The minute-to-minute volatility has allowed for some profitable scalping, and I have flipped positions a couple times already today. A steady pullback should start today or tomorrow. The euphoria of the bulls should take the price very close to the daily 200 moving average. The bounce down could be rapid, so a trailing stop or a chosen exit below the line makes sense. Stop-hunting and low liquidity has led to some price spikes, so trailing stops may not be the better of the two options.
I have provided hypothetical Fibonacci retracement levels. When the daily closes below the 0.236 level, we can consider the top confirmed, but aggressive traders may want to flip to a short position when they exit any long positions.
Profit-taking on long positions on Bitfinex and Bitmex has been aggressive, as seen by the sharp drop in longs on this chart. Smart money is already exiting.
The daily RSI is through the roof.
For those of us still in long positions: how will we determine a good exit?
The minute-to-minute volatility has allowed for some profitable scalping, and I have flipped positions a couple times already today. A steady pullback should start today or tomorrow. The euphoria of the bulls should take the price very close to the daily 200 moving average. The bounce down could be rapid, so a trailing stop or a chosen exit below the line makes sense. Stop-hunting and low liquidity has led to some price spikes, so trailing stops may not be the better of the two options.
I have provided hypothetical Fibonacci retracement levels. When the daily closes below the 0.236 level, we can consider the top confirmed, but aggressive traders may want to flip to a short position when they exit any long positions.
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