BTCUSD short

15 mar 2018

Unfortunately, I don't think BTC is anywhere near a bounce. The markets have a tendency to do better than expected when things are good, and worse than expected when they're bad. I hate to say it but I think a 50%+ further decline from here is possible. BTC likes to tap previous highs. And the trendline & fibonacci roughly coincide with ~$4500, which also puts us roughly at the C point in an Elliot Cycle. Next one down is $3000, although I don't yet know if that's on the table.

15 mar 2018

Nota

I should probably specify that I'm not actually shorting BTC. I generally advise against margin trading in crypto. Rather, I am going risk-off (meaning selling) for a portion of my position at these levels, with eyes to re-enter (buy) lower.

20 mar 2018

Operación activa

Overestimated the interim low; it's already rebounding toward 2nd target (~9000). This area will be key - I think it's a bull trap (read: bulls get trapped), but if it shows strength, I would consider my prediction to have been invalidated. Either way, I'm hodling, with some cash on the sidelines.

21 mar 2018

Operación activa

Updated time frames slightly. Things are moving faster than expected. I think we hit the interim top, nearly exactly on the mark called @ $9000. Bull trap time. Short term heavily bearish, medium & long-term heavily bullish. Still looking for the $4500 buy opportunity that I kicked off this post with. It could get ugly here soon, but to me that would be the sign the bear trend is almost over.

29 jun 2018

Operación activa

Been a while. Downside target taking much longer to hit than expected. So we have to re-adjust and re-assess. Still looking at $4800 as the magic number (to start buying back in), but still cautious that below $3000 is a possible "worst case" scenario.

I will ladder back in between $4800 and $2800, with gradually increasing position size to coincide with lower prices. So think 5%, 10%, 15%, etc.; with a pre-determined maximum investment amount to be spread over this range.

Cheers

19 nov 2018

Operación activa

finally nearing that first downside target ... took quite a bit longer than expected, but that bodes well for the uptrend when it eventually comes.

20 nov 2018

Nota

Buying below the green line:

20 nov 2018

Operación activa