BITCOIN Making ripples water! A Symmetrical 3 month projection.

18 ene 2020

You are thinking: "What does this title have to do with Bitcoin?". The answer lies on the chart above.

This is basically a continuation of (what turned out to be) a very popular idea that I first posted back in October:

As you see the prediction of a December 2019 Bottom at $6500 was spot on. How I was able to calculate that? Simple. Initially I used the MA1000 and MA1400 periods as the long term Buy Zone to give a perspective of where buy accumulation is on its optimal level.

** Symmetrical Cycles **
Then I modeled the correction that started with the June $13800 peak after the whole 2018 Bear Market. Why? Because the similarities between those Cycles are very strong:

* On one hand the 2017 final aggressive 13 month rise of only 3 red months and the 2018 symmetrical 13 month Bear Cycle of only 3 green months.

* On the other the 2019 very aggressive (parabolic) sequence of 5 straight green months followed by the June correction.

A key factor that helped timing my $6500 Bottom projection was the fact that the Bear phase is 0.88*Bull phase. This put the end of the correction (bottom) in early December 2019.

** The Fibonacci Boxes **
What was more important on that projection is the application of the Fibonacci retracement levels (log scale) on both axis (price and time) creating a box. Each box fits inside the Bull and Bear phases of each Cycle. As you see the Top on both Cycles was made within the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci extension . The bottom in 2018 was made within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. I applied the same principle and assumed that the current bottom would be within the 0.5 - 0.618 level, which was 6500 - 5500, comfortably within the MA1000/1400 Buy Zone.

** So why "Ripples on Water"? **
The essence of the current study, and what makes all the difference on my projection models is the Lower High trend line (Bold Blue line) which I introduced earlier this month on the following analysis, and starts from the $19800 December 2017 All Time High and makes contact with the $13800 June 2019 peak.

Assuming the 1D MA1000 holds (which is the top of the long term Buy Zone), then Bitcoin may create another Cycle of rise and 50% pull back, similar to the previous two! After all the Lower High trend line creates a Symmetrical Triangle, so why not repeat this Fibonacci Box?

** The new Mini Cycle **
Will if that's the case and the new Fib Cycle is created then its obvious Top is a 0.786 Fib retracement on the Lower High (blue) trend line. That is roughly at $11500 and if we apply the 0.5 - 0.618 sideways principle then we come up with a projected 70 day rise. This in turn (70 days * 0.88) gives a pull back phase estimate of 62 days, timing the new bottom in April 2020, right before the May 2020 Halving! Following the principles of the previous Symmetrical Cycles, if the bottom is again within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, then it gives us a rough range of $8500 - 8000.

Do you think this rise to $11500 and pull back to $8500 are valid levels before the 3rd Halving? Let me know in the comments section!

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P.S. See how this theory of Symmetrical Fib Cycles started in October with the following related material:

* * * BONUS MATERIAL * * * Two related studies of September and April respectively which also put the current price action into perspective while predicting the 6k bottom! Enjoy and comment!