BTCUSD Medium Term Analysis

8 may 2022

I may seem crazy in a macro environment like this where things seem about ready to implode. I do believe we've yet to see a real "euphoric" top in the bitcoin/cryptocurrency market. These are simply projections not exact timing or numbers really, this is just my idea of what I see happening with bitcoin from now to the next halving cycle come 2024. Where does all this liquidity come from in an environment like this? All the money sitting on the sidelines currently. To me, it's as simple as inflation cooling down hypothetically followed by a 2nd quarter negative gdp print for sentiment to flip. I'm also more of swing-trader / medium term investor so I tend to get against the current sentiment. So I've actually been getting more bullish recently, even if short term it could result in very volatile swings. Big picture though I see one final euphoric top in both the stock indexes along with bitcoin before a deflationary bust seems to be much more likely and certainly worth the risk / reward.

13 may 2022

Nota

Wave 4 invalidated. Though I do still think if we don't close below those levels we can still continue this pattern, just with a capitulation event. I think LUNA blowing up might have created this max-fear scenario.