Is the 50ema now resistance? Is a test of the 100 again likely?
Hi! Thanks for taking the time to read. In my last post I asked the question if btc would bounce off of the 100ema before coming down and testing the 200ema. We did get that bounce and I have to admit it happened a few days faster than I thought it would. So far btc did hit my sell target and is currently trading right below it.
So what happens next? I see 3 possible scenarios for the next move but I think another test of the 100ema is most likely possibly followed by another bounce approaching the 50ema like we currently had. I think the 2nd most likely is we crash below the 100ema and start to approach the 200ema and see if we get a bounce there. I think we would. The third or least likely scenario in my eyes is we break through the 50ema and approach top of the channel we are trading in which would be the $11,200-400 range.
As the chart shows we did bounce off the 100ema and the top of the bounce ended up being the 50ema. We’re at our 3rd day of testing it wth no luck of going above and holding so far. I think if we don’t break through it soon another test of the 100ema is pretty likely. Seeing how strong and fast we bounced off it last time I think another bounce is pretty likely. The 50,100 and 200ema’s really have not been important indicators until now. Up until the last few days the 50ema never acted as strong resistance, this is also the first time the 100ema has been approached since the beginning of April. Ever since we crossed it we rocketed above it.
Tomorrows candle will also most likely be a red 9 on sequential. If you look back on the chart you’ll see the last 2 times the candles reversed it happened on a 9 candle. So it has been a pretty decent indicator. I don’t think the 9 candle this time will have much significance due to the fact we are in the middle of the channel already so I think a 13 count is pretty likely. The last 2 nine counts were at the bottom and top of the channel. So since I see the 9 count as insignificant this time and thinking we may get a 13 count also makes me think that gives us time to test the 100ema again.
For the most part my last analysis still stands I think we will test and bounce off the 100ema again and approach the 50ema. My sell range would also be the same in the area of $10,250-600.
I do think after testing the 50ema again and failing. If that scenario pans out. I would no longer see the 100ema as support. I would be looking for us to test the 200ema and seeing a bounce from the $8,000-8,400 range to test the 100ema which would now be resistance.
Hope this analysis helps and enjoy your day
So what happens next? I see 3 possible scenarios for the next move but I think another test of the 100ema is most likely possibly followed by another bounce approaching the 50ema like we currently had. I think the 2nd most likely is we crash below the 100ema and start to approach the 200ema and see if we get a bounce there. I think we would. The third or least likely scenario in my eyes is we break through the 50ema and approach top of the channel we are trading in which would be the $11,200-400 range.
As the chart shows we did bounce off the 100ema and the top of the bounce ended up being the 50ema. We’re at our 3rd day of testing it wth no luck of going above and holding so far. I think if we don’t break through it soon another test of the 100ema is pretty likely. Seeing how strong and fast we bounced off it last time I think another bounce is pretty likely. The 50,100 and 200ema’s really have not been important indicators until now. Up until the last few days the 50ema never acted as strong resistance, this is also the first time the 100ema has been approached since the beginning of April. Ever since we crossed it we rocketed above it.
Tomorrows candle will also most likely be a red 9 on sequential. If you look back on the chart you’ll see the last 2 times the candles reversed it happened on a 9 candle. So it has been a pretty decent indicator. I don’t think the 9 candle this time will have much significance due to the fact we are in the middle of the channel already so I think a 13 count is pretty likely. The last 2 nine counts were at the bottom and top of the channel. So since I see the 9 count as insignificant this time and thinking we may get a 13 count also makes me think that gives us time to test the 100ema again.
For the most part my last analysis still stands I think we will test and bounce off the 100ema again and approach the 50ema. My sell range would also be the same in the area of $10,250-600.
I do think after testing the 50ema again and failing. If that scenario pans out. I would no longer see the 100ema as support. I would be looking for us to test the 200ema and seeing a bounce from the $8,000-8,400 range to test the 100ema which would now be resistance.
Hope this analysis helps and enjoy your day
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