[BTC] Charts Favoring a Longer Bear Market for Bitcoin
Been out of town and offline with little to no trading/charting in the last week or two. Figured I'd take a look at the daily chart so I can set some longer term limit orders until I get back into trading. I could probably explain this chart, the trendlines, and the unmarked elliot and fibonacci analysis I did but that'd take too long.
If you wanna see that stuff in more detail or you got some disagreements, hit up the comments cause I always like seeing other people's opinions.
So I think I eased back on trading midway through the bounce from last week where the bulls ended up looking like a one-hit wonder that overhyped their next album. Choppy action, not clear signals, trading opportunities faded away. I scaled out all but a small bit of my original position knowing I'd be away from trading as frequently (which honestly saved me from some losses). Since then we ended up rejecting the thinner uptrend line and then broke the more important triangle support in the same move. Quite bearish on the face of it.
Fell below Mar-Apr lows but didn't reach Feb lows before today's relief rally on (debatably) bullish news.
- Resistance at the dotted blue line, not all that
important trendline though.
- No 5th wave up to test triangle resistance before
breaking down.
- Bulls failed to produce, bears capitalizing with
increased volume indicating triangle pattern break.
- Bearish volume spike isn't huge.
- Decent bounce before testing Feb. low @ $6000.
- Last hope chance for bulls in this Zone of Uncertainty,
likely see some sideways consolidation here.
Hell if I know which way we go at this point, not gonna try and force any trades right now. All I can say is that I'd be more hesitant to buy if we see a bigger rally back into the triangle. Also, short selling isn't worth the risk yet because of today's bounce.
Definitely eager to start buying if we move into support zone near the peak of Summer 2017, roughly $4500-$5500. If we get that low I'm gonna start scaling in for some long term holdings, even if we end up going further down.
But we can argue about that bridge once we burn it.
If you wanna see that stuff in more detail or you got some disagreements, hit up the comments cause I always like seeing other people's opinions.
So I think I eased back on trading midway through the bounce from last week where the bulls ended up looking like a one-hit wonder that overhyped their next album. Choppy action, not clear signals, trading opportunities faded away. I scaled out all but a small bit of my original position knowing I'd be away from trading as frequently (which honestly saved me from some losses). Since then we ended up rejecting the thinner uptrend line and then broke the more important triangle support in the same move. Quite bearish on the face of it.
Fell below Mar-Apr lows but didn't reach Feb lows before today's relief rally on (debatably) bullish news.
- Resistance at the dotted blue line, not all that
important trendline though.
- No 5th wave up to test triangle resistance before
breaking down.
- Bulls failed to produce, bears capitalizing with
increased volume indicating triangle pattern break.
- Bearish volume spike isn't huge.
- Decent bounce before testing Feb. low @ $6000.
- Last hope chance for bulls in this Zone of Uncertainty,
likely see some sideways consolidation here.
Hell if I know which way we go at this point, not gonna try and force any trades right now. All I can say is that I'd be more hesitant to buy if we see a bigger rally back into the triangle. Also, short selling isn't worth the risk yet because of today's bounce.
Definitely eager to start buying if we move into support zone near the peak of Summer 2017, roughly $4500-$5500. If we get that low I'm gonna start scaling in for some long term holdings, even if we end up going further down.
But we can argue about that bridge once we burn it.
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