#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Bears got below 50000 but bulls still kept the bullish gap to 52000 open. I still think this was W1 of the new bear trend and we are currently in W2. Pullback has to stay below 63000ish though. There is currently a small bear gap 61697 - 63987 and that should stay open if this is a bear trend. If not, more sideways in this expanding triangle. Bears are currently breaking it down again below 59000, so the daily 20ema held. Bearish af.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears were in a rush on Monday and printed a climactic bar down to 49111 but bulls bought the dip. As I am writing this, market is falling from 61000 to 58600 and going. Bears reversed it right at the daily 20ema and kept the bear gap to 64000 open, which is very strong by the bears. We are currently in a big bear wedge which could hold for a couple more weeks.
current market cycle: Trading range and bear wedge but possible that the new bear trend finally began.
key levels: 49000-64000
bull case: Bulls bought the dip below 50000, which was expected. They even got to the daily 20ema again, which was 12000 points away, so decent buying. If they fail now and we trade below 56000 again, I do think that this was the last hurrah and we go much lower over the next weeks and months. Do or die for bulls. Either break above the daily ema and bear trend line and stay inside the huge triangle, or it’s 50000 again and likely even 40000 in 2024.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Big swings currently. Bears finally broke 50000 for the first time since 2024-02. They want the sell off from 70000 to be the last touch of 70000 for many years and the current selloff to be the first leg in the new big bear trend. They had to defend the daily 20ema around 61000 and so far they did just that. Below 56000 the odds favor more downside for 54000 and lower. Their main target is the bull gap close to 52000 and finally get a daily close below 50000/52000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
outlook last week:
short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 60350 and now we are at 58655. The low was 49111 and my target was 50000. Bearish target was more than met, hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000.
current swing trade: Loaded on shorts again 59000 with sl 63000
chart update: Added bear wedge
tl;dr
bitcoin: Bears got below 50000 but bulls still kept the bullish gap to 52000 open. I still think this was W1 of the new bear trend and we are currently in W2. Pullback has to stay below 63000ish though. There is currently a small bear gap 61697 - 63987 and that should stay open if this is a bear trend. If not, more sideways in this expanding triangle. Bears are currently breaking it down again below 59000, so the daily 20ema held. Bearish af.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Market changed directions as quickly as on the way up. Bears are in control again and want to print 50000. If they do, I do believe we won’t get above 63000 on a pullback, due to many bulls having stops there and giving up. If bears fumble it again and let the bull gap down to 52000 stay open, we will continue the trading range inside the given key levels.
comment: Bears were in a rush on Monday and printed a climactic bar down to 49111 but bulls bought the dip. As I am writing this, market is falling from 61000 to 58600 and going. Bears reversed it right at the daily 20ema and kept the bear gap to 64000 open, which is very strong by the bears. We are currently in a big bear wedge which could hold for a couple more weeks.
current market cycle: Trading range and bear wedge but possible that the new bear trend finally began.
key levels: 49000-64000
bull case: Bulls bought the dip below 50000, which was expected. They even got to the daily 20ema again, which was 12000 points away, so decent buying. If they fail now and we trade below 56000 again, I do think that this was the last hurrah and we go much lower over the next weeks and months. Do or die for bulls. Either break above the daily ema and bear trend line and stay inside the huge triangle, or it’s 50000 again and likely even 40000 in 2024.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Big swings currently. Bears finally broke 50000 for the first time since 2024-02. They want the sell off from 70000 to be the last touch of 70000 for many years and the current selloff to be the first leg in the new big bear trend. They had to defend the daily 20ema around 61000 and so far they did just that. Below 56000 the odds favor more downside for 54000 and lower. Their main target is the bull gap close to 52000 and finally get a daily close below 50000/52000.
Invalidation is above 63000.
outlook last week:
short term: Market only knows one direction currently. The weekend selling was almost 5000 points so far. Any pullback will be good for me to load on shorts again.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 60350 and now we are at 58655. The low was 49111 and my target was 50000. Bearish target was more than met, hope you made some.
short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000.
current swing trade: Loaded on shorts again 59000 with sl 63000
chart update: Added bear wedge
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