The current state of the Cryptocurrency market has drastically changed since the latest sell off and we have entered correction territory. Whether it was manipulated or not, it cannot be denied that the last structure down was impulsive. While it was anticipated and I had called for this move a week ago, I had not expected it to move with such strength since I had projected it to be a corrective move. Obviously, that hasn't happened, so the only hope the Bulls have left to take this thing back is to drag it sideways and take it on correctively for the next few weeks. I am in a long position, but as of now I'm planning on entering into another short again around $8,500-$8,800. Out of transparency I'll admit it's anyone's guess what could happen from here. The most recent swing low was unnatural as far as I can tell and the Bulls could use that to their advantage to "buy the dip" and push it up at a discount. But as of now I plan on playing price action as it has mapped for us, taking profit and entering a short after a 60%-90% retracement to $8,500-$8,800 if price action is still indicative of a correction, then assessing the trade after the next move whether it is corrective to the downside or impulsive.
Now this part is less about technicals, but I think it needs to be said. I think Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are much more related to central financial markets than most would like to admit. And that has become unbelievably apparent during this latest sell off. Yes Bitcoin has had a history of heinous 30% corrections in previous bull markets, but the timing of this latest move cannot be a coincidence. Personally, contrary to popular belief in these markets, I think Bitcoin is a risk on asset. And what happens to risk on assets like global equities when they are being sold off? Capitulation. Don't agree? Bitcoin specifically has been hit harder during this latest sell off than any other asset on the planet. Look at gold then look at Bitcoin and you will realize that Bitcoin is behaving exactly like any risk on asset would in this kind of environment.
The halving is approaching, turmoil in the news, economic uncertainty. The fundamental conditions could not get any more bullish for Bitcoin, but where is it? Not performing. I don't mean to insult anybody, but Bitcoin does not care about your fundamental analysis. It does not care about your market cycles. It does not care about halvings. These markets are not the same as they used to be. They have become institutionalized and centralized. These markets are run by traders and are driven by price action. And price action is not on the side of anything bullish right now.
On the daily we have a potential head and shoulders, although it's premature we are nearing a potential for the most pure death cross in Bitcoin's history.
On the weekly we are much closer to breaking below the 200 week moving average, which has never happened before in Bitcoin's history, than we are to 50% of the all time high.
This is just my opinion and should not dictate how you trade or your decisions. But I am not bullish on Bitcoin right now.
Now this part is less about technicals, but I think it needs to be said. I think Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are much more related to central financial markets than most would like to admit. And that has become unbelievably apparent during this latest sell off. Yes Bitcoin has had a history of heinous 30% corrections in previous bull markets, but the timing of this latest move cannot be a coincidence. Personally, contrary to popular belief in these markets, I think Bitcoin is a risk on asset. And what happens to risk on assets like global equities when they are being sold off? Capitulation. Don't agree? Bitcoin specifically has been hit harder during this latest sell off than any other asset on the planet. Look at gold then look at Bitcoin and you will realize that Bitcoin is behaving exactly like any risk on asset would in this kind of environment.
The halving is approaching, turmoil in the news, economic uncertainty. The fundamental conditions could not get any more bullish for Bitcoin, but where is it? Not performing. I don't mean to insult anybody, but Bitcoin does not care about your fundamental analysis. It does not care about your market cycles. It does not care about halvings. These markets are not the same as they used to be. They have become institutionalized and centralized. These markets are run by traders and are driven by price action. And price action is not on the side of anything bullish right now.
On the daily we have a potential head and shoulders, although it's premature we are nearing a potential for the most pure death cross in Bitcoin's history.
On the weekly we are much closer to breaking below the 200 week moving average, which has never happened before in Bitcoin's history, than we are to 50% of the all time high.
This is just my opinion and should not dictate how you trade or your decisions. But I am not bullish on Bitcoin right now.
