Wedge break out up or channel breakdown?

28 abr 2022

I personally think the wedge breaking up makes more sense to get validated than the channel breaking down does..Until I see us form a lower low on the daily (below 28.6k) I tend to side with the bullish pattern. If the channel breaks down we could dump pretty severely as it is also the flag of a bear flag with a pretty lengthy pole. Only way we do that is if we have indeed entered the bear market…and even then the breakdown target for the bear flag is so low it seems unrealistic for it to choose a breakdown over breaking up out of the wedge. Not impossible though with the right combination of black swans and fud. If we do break up from the wedge I think it would make a lot of sense for the breakout point to be where I’ve place this dotted pink line because the target takes us back up to retesting the resistance of the yellow horizontal. So odds are good if we break up from the wedge it will be in the next few daily candles. In order to do so we must first overcome this strong horizontal here around 39.6k that acted as strong support before….it has been at least temporarily flipped to resistance and it was such strong support that it’s likely to be similarly strong resistance. That is the resistance to watch and if we can flip it back to solidified support we should validate the wedge breakout. If not and we do trigger the channel breakdown the next supports that are clutch would be 33k, 30k, and 28.6028.7k if we lose those bear market is likely to be official as under 28.6k we form a low low and will likely follow it up with a lower high not long after which would confirm the bear market. For now I think probability slightly favors the bullish wedge breakout over the channel breakdown but we must be vigilant and prepared for either outcome.

28 abr 2022

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*not financial advice* :P