38K could trigger minor tactical bounce

18 abr 2022

Morning guys,

So, as we've said last time - nothing has changed in our long-term view. We still think that background is not ready for long term investing in BTC. And now we see growing chances that our long-term target around 26K area will be achieved. We do not know, whether downside action stops at 26K, but at least, this area is worthy of consideration as very strong support, including all time 5/8 Fib level, daily AB-CD target and Yearly Pivot support 1.

In short-term market stands around intraday 5/8 support level. Last time we said, that tactical bounce is possible, but as overall background is not friendly for the bulls - we have to wait for clear bullish pattern, because it could safe a lot of money, letting to place tight stop. On Thursday there was no suitable context for long entry. Now, with downside drop it is possible to keep an eye on 1.618 butterfly that could start from 38K. Currently price has completed 1.27 target, but since drop was relatively fast, it makes sense to wait for the next, 1.618 one.

Second chance might be, if potential butterfly later becomes the part of reverse H&S pattern. IT happens very often. These are two tactical bullish scenarios to keep an eye on. And it would be better to not anticipate patterns, take position "by fact" when patterns are in place. Second - do not merry this position, take nearest upside target, because overall environment remains bearish, and the pullback will be only tactical (if it happens at all).