Bitcoin: the bigger picture

26 ago 2018

right now we can see btc inside this rising wedge, so I expect a break down over the next days and then we could see 5.7k retest, also possible a small wick to 5.5k.
anyway If I'm looking at the right picture we are in accumulation phase (5.5-8.5k) where we'll hit 8k more or less (by end of sept) and retest 5.7-6k again and this 12/14k uptrend starting from November.
that's the outlook I'm looking at and I'm pretty sure it will happen. after we hit 12/14k I expect a crash towards 3k/lower target or new ATH which is the less likely imho of course possible but still early to talk about these two scenarios.
on the other side if btc goes to 5k or lower from here then I looked at the wrong structure and crash will be to expect very early which is something I don't really think at all.

26 ago 2018

Nota

26 ago 2018

Nota

26 ago 2018

Nota

monthly

27 ago 2018

Nota

here's why 14k I was also looking at nasdaq gold and other bubble cycles repeating over and over. but most ppl are following blindly 2014 cycle since it retraced by 85% and it will again (I guess maybe even something more than 85% or something less don't you think that? it's a bit different from 2014. what matters is 5.5k support has to hold so that it can hit 14k by few months.
but that being said if a daily close below this important support happens I don't think anymore at this scenario. right now btc is still inside the wedge and it shouldnt go above 7.2k- (top of the rising wedge) and we'll see another drop towards 5.8-6.2k

29 ago 2018

Nota

bullish flag inside this wedge is forming like the previous small uptrend
target will be 7420

30 ago 2018

Nota

btc like gold?

30 ago 2018

Nota

weekly overview

1 sept 2018

Nota

IMO the truth is in the middle.
many ppl have been calling 3/4k since month and many ppl that keep calling a new bullrun coming over the next month, then guess what? we should see a strong up move towards $12.7 no more than 14.4k where bear keep shorting at each 1K move and get trapped and bulltard dreaming for the new ATH and finally the crash coming next year (I think q3) whose target could be around 2k.
the structure is very similar to gold, indicator same as gold (bullish cross on weekly stock rsi and Macd, three white soldiers candlestick on weekly, weekly ema 100 holding. but we just need a higher low on daily which it should happen next week.
as supports I see (6.5k-6.3k-6k). key levels are 7150 and 6800 it's not like 2014 I realized is different since weekly and monthly timeframe looking good for a nice uptrend but it's not different how this cycle will end up ;)
I just give few odds for a new bull run coming, anything is possible as you know.

1 sept 2018

Nota

ascending triangle

2 sept 2018

Nota

bearish div on 4h
retrace coming next week
we may not even hit 5.8-6k which is what everyone expects even because we have three white soldiers candlestick pattern on weekly and it's not usually followed by a heavy retrace, but of course a healthy retrace is to be expect and 6.8k should hold we'll see.

2 sept 2018

Nota

google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjOqf_-h5zdAhXvzIUKHQcPD7YQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http://www.forexabode.com/forex-school/watch-out-for-patterns/candlestick-charts/three-white-soldiers-and-three-black-crows/&psig=AOvVaw0McRiyfguAxOugg06QLrGs&ust=1535968775965706

2 sept 2018

Nota

2 sept 2018

Nota

my guess:
bears in disbelief
bull dreaming for the new ATH

2 sept 2018

Nota

btw like gold chart while one of the few alts I follow (EOS) that could have a nice long term potential seems like Amazon chart.



also alts are showing a nice potential in uptrend over the next month
which can support my idea about btc is about to make a strong upmove towards 12.7-14.4k before printing a new low.
if so we're just going to "return to normal" which is a classic phase of a bubble cycle.

3 sept 2018

Nota

symmetrical triangle as reversal pattern.

it should test the daily ma 200 which is at 7.7-7.8k. this price level is also a strong horizontal resistance and then it will most likely get rejected there.

5 sept 2018

Nota

if it breaks 6750 then 6k is to be expect again.
i don't think that will happen again but we'll see.

6 sept 2018

Nota

forget 6k

6 sept 2018

Nota

6 sept 2018

Nota

as I said so many times, gold structure is very similar to btc. 6k may not be tested and I personally think if we test that again may not be strong anymore.

6 sept 2018

Nota

so I don't expect another 6k retest.
a break below 5.7k would bring btc to capitulate

6 sept 2018

Nota

Nice r/r a long here
And btw there are lots of short about to hit a new ATH
That could mean nothing but in april a short squeeze happened. If this is accumulation we should hit 12.7-14.4k as mentioned earlier.

27 oct 2018

Nota

daily MA 200 flat
daily MA 50 acting as support







I expect one of these scenarios (new cycle or bull trap)
still early to say which one will play out.
in each case I expect a nice uptrend starting over the next few days.
shorters are playing with fire in this area, I wouldn't short here unless we break 5.8k and daily close below that.
r/r is in favor for longs here.

TP1 = 11.7k
TP2 = 12.7K
TP3 = around 14.5k