BTC to fall to $23.2k before final move to $37.2k
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The last couple of months have definitely been difficult to trade. If you've made money, congrats.
We've just been stuck in a lot of chop and I think the chop will continue until around early July before we see a trending move higher.
Even though we've had a pump higher in the last couple of days, I still think we're in the process of a complex correction. So if you missed this move, be patient.
I think the move higher in BTC will stall out somewhere in the grey box - somewhere between 28.3k-23.7k. If we can't break that resistance, then I think the next move is going to shake a lot of people out.
If you look at the chart, you can see that 23.2k is a level that still hasn't been tested as support, and I think that level will need to be tested before we can move much higher from here. I think the most likely scenario is that over the course of the next 3-7 days, BTC will test this level higher and alts will rally a little bit to bait in new longs. Then I think at some point next week, BTC will dump back to 23.2k.
That's where I'll want to be long BTC (23.2k) because I think there's significant upside there in a relatively short amount of time. I think we'll see a relatively fast move higher into the 30k range from that level (60% upside to final target). The first resistance being 32.8k, and the next and final resistance being 37.3ishk. Once we hit that 37k level, that's where I'll exit all of my longs, because I believe that after that, we'll see the continuation of the bear market below 10k.
Be cautious trading alts over the next week or two. If you do, set tight stops and take gains while you have them. Because if we do see that dump to 23.2k, I think it's going to get very ugly for alts.
We've just been stuck in a lot of chop and I think the chop will continue until around early July before we see a trending move higher.
Even though we've had a pump higher in the last couple of days, I still think we're in the process of a complex correction. So if you missed this move, be patient.
I think the move higher in BTC will stall out somewhere in the grey box - somewhere between 28.3k-23.7k. If we can't break that resistance, then I think the next move is going to shake a lot of people out.
If you look at the chart, you can see that 23.2k is a level that still hasn't been tested as support, and I think that level will need to be tested before we can move much higher from here. I think the most likely scenario is that over the course of the next 3-7 days, BTC will test this level higher and alts will rally a little bit to bait in new longs. Then I think at some point next week, BTC will dump back to 23.2k.
That's where I'll want to be long BTC (23.2k) because I think there's significant upside there in a relatively short amount of time. I think we'll see a relatively fast move higher into the 30k range from that level (60% upside to final target). The first resistance being 32.8k, and the next and final resistance being 37.3ishk. Once we hit that 37k level, that's where I'll exit all of my longs, because I believe that after that, we'll see the continuation of the bear market below 10k.
Be cautious trading alts over the next week or two. If you do, set tight stops and take gains while you have them. Because if we do see that dump to 23.2k, I think it's going to get very ugly for alts.
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Looks like price hit the upper resistance above the grey box at 29.8k and wicked higher, this is where I'd take profit on BTC. Alts should still have some room to move, but don't see BTC surpassing the local high at 30.8k. If it does, I'll reassess.
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Okay, after relooking at the chart, being we blew through the $28.3 level (grey area). What would make sense from here is a pullback into that level as support and then continuation higher.When I look at a chart, I know important levels and dates, but I don't know exactly how the chart will play out. So it's a function of probabilities. Looking at a combination of the chart, price levels, and various indicators, what's the most likely thing to happen? That's how I try to forecast, but then I trade based on what's happening on the chart.
We're at an important level now which looks to be holding as resistance. I still don't think we'll continue higher here. The move that surpassed 30.8k just went slightly higher to liquidate shorts IMO. Now that the shorts are out, it would make sense to pullback.
I know there will be a pullback over the next two weeks, a key date is on Tuesday (which should be some sort of turning point). So it depends how price action plays out over the coming days.
If we don't hold support in the 28.3k range. Then the next key supports are 25.8k, 24.3k and then the one on the chart at 23.2k which should be the lowest we would go on a move down.
I think there's less risk to be long after July 5th. I expect there to be a lot of chop over the next couple of weeks.
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Note: If we can't surpass this region, it does set up a double top on the daily. So be cautious, bc if that were to play out, the original idea of 23.2k would be the target for the move.I still don't like how that region hasn't been tested as support. There's an imbalance on the chart that I do think will get resolved. It's just a question of when, do we continue higher and retest it on the way back down? Or do we test it before a move much higher.
I lean towards the latter, but let's see.
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Tomorrow and/or Wednesday, I'm expecting one last retest of the range highs at 31.2k-30.8k. I expect price to reject there which will setup the move lower.Be careful longing around those levels.
Certain alts might have 10%-20% moves over the next day or two, but don't get caught in the trap of thinking the move is going to go higher (unless there is a new high that closes above the previous one).
Take profits and exit, then be patient and wait for lower prices (if price cannot surpass that range).
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Got the test of range highs. Now it looks like the move down is starting.Comentarios
Need to break $30360 for the selling to accelerate, if price stays above there, then we may chop around for another day or two.Comentarios
Don't fall into the trap of longing resistance... We're about to roll over again in the next few hours. The next drop will be much larger than yesterday's.Comentarios
I think alts can get one last pump here (very quick one), before rug pull.Comentarios
Now thinking we could potentially get another test of $31.2 before we fall. If price can get above $30,500 and then $30,800. I don't think we'll break that level. I still think we'll fall after, so be careful up here. But it could give alts one last pump.Still very cautious especially into next week. Breaking back below $30,100 and $29,900 would be very negative.
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Got the first test of 31.2k overnight. That was a brutal drop to wipe out long stops. I think run it back to 31.2k one more time here before the real drop.Comentarios
Got the final retest of $31.2, now I'd be very cautious going forward. I'll be looking for longs again closer to the 20th of July.Comentarios
Move down has definitely started... let's see how low we go.Remember: If we don't hold support in the 28.3k range. Then the next key supports are 26.4k,25.8k, 24.3k and then the one on the chart at 23.2k which should be the lowest we would go on a move down.
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I'm logging off for the weekend. I have my bids set at $23,350. If you're bullish, set tight stops.Enjoy your weekend.
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The drop is now underway.Comentarios
If we can see a close over 31.4k, then I was wrong about a move down and we should see continuation higher.If we close below that level, then i still think there's downside to come (however, we might not get as low as originally anticipated).
Still leaning towards the latter as all short term RSIs are overbought, that said, higher timeframe ones aren't, and things can stay overbought in a strong trending move.
Let's see.
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if we do close above, then the next levels higher are 37k, 42k, 44k and I'd follow this chart as the guide: 
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Okay, now i'm leaning bullish. Looks like we could see a big candle higher on this close.Comentarios
36K-37k would be the next target, if so, and I'd expect the bullish move to play out over the next 2-3 weeks.Comentarios
Using this chart as my guide going forward: Comentarios
I'm currently in a long position. The next move would take us to 37k, then I think there would be one more small move higher to $42-44k for a final top of this cycle.
That is where I'm selling and going back to cash.
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Just an FYI -- have set a tight stop. Even though we closed above 31.4k, I want to protect against the possibility of a rug pull. The sentiment is at an extreme, hence why I've been cautious. Always have to weigh both sides, and I tend to err on the side of protecting my capital.Comentarios
Sorry for all the back and forth the past few days. Has been a lot of chop here and trying to protect capital. I'd rather miss a move than lose money.I'm out of my BTC trades again for a number of reasons:
- We lost 31.2k
- Extreme bullish sentiment
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COIN hit my target which isn't a good sign for continuation higher in crypto- Tradfi looks like it's about to pull back
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VXX looks like it bottomed and is forming a base here for a leg higherJust too much risk for me to go long here. Again, my trading style is about keeping my capital, so I'm more cautious and patient and would rather wait for a better entry than entering up here.
If I end up missing the trade so be it. I'd definitely be cautious though chasing here and keep stops tight incase we see a quick move down.
If we end up seeing a rug pull up here, supports are:
28.3k. Then if we lose that, the next key supports are 25.8k, 24.3k and then the one on the chart at 23.2k
There are a couple of alts that still like they could see a move higher. I'm currently in a
DOGE position (which usually indicates a top after it moves).Comentarios
Welp got the initial drop. BTC is forming a really ugly weekly candle. I think we're going to see a down week next week. Loss of 29.9k = very bad.Let's see if we hit the downside targets to buy again.
Have a great weekend.
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More confirmation of downside finally starting to play out. Got a red heikin ashi 2D and 3D candle, momentum downwards already starting.My bids are at $23,350
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Note: Shorter term (next few hours to a day), I could see BTC going to $30800-31000 to test it as resistance before the continuation downwards starts.Small timeframe moves won't change overall trend.
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Here's where we should get the shorter term bounce higher.Comentarios
Another fake out lower today, still think we get the bounce higher from here. One more fake out move higher before the rug pull IMOComentarios
Targeting $30,800 - 31.4k on the upside which should give a decent bounce to Alts. I'm playing the trade via APTUSD.Chart on my profile.
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Okay, BTC looking weak. Want to see where/if it bounces.Comentarios
Let's see if it goes to $28-28.7k. I do think we'll get a bounce there bc RSI on 7hr -10hr is pretty oversold already.So could see a significant drop, but think we'll need to see a bounce before the move I'm expecting plays out.
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As of now, it's looking like price wants up before down. But cautious because I have a strong weekly sell signal. So should get the strong move down soon.I took a long on
FET to play the move.Comentarios
Needs to bounce here or I'll cutComentarios
Ended up cutting, but still expecting a move higher before lower bc RSI is bottomed and if it's going to move down further, it needs to bounce first.If we do end up getting a strong bounce, don't get caught chasing. I do expect that after that move, everyone will turn bullish, and then we'll have a rug pull right after.
Still expecting price to go down to 22.7k-23.3k over the next 2-3 weeks.
Let's see...
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Alright... not confident that we see BTC any higher than where it just went at $29,500. All the signs are starting to form for a big move down in BTC. Volatility just spiked, bonds selling off, equities selling off...I think the time has come. Bidding 23.2k BTC
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Be aware that Saturday is the pivot, so likely no big move until then.The market is likely just going to bounce around to pull in more money before dumping.
Now that price action has played out, pretty confident that the low will take place between the two pivots and the last pivot should be the start of a new trend.
Again, I'm still bullish to 37k-44k (then I'll turn very bearish on BTC, because again, we're not in a bull market).Getting this move that no one is expecting (if it plays out) will cause everyone to be bearish when we should be buying the dip.
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Alright, have to admit that I was surprised by the push up right now and not continuation down on the move yesterday. It made me reassess the chart and I actually have a bullish bias right now (and thinking that this could be the final move up). I'll share some of my thoughts.
Bullish reasoning for taking a position:
- We got a green flat bottom candle on the 1D
- On the 2D chart, we went higher on a demark buy 9
- Ichimoku looks bullish, with price still above the clouds
- RSI 1D bounced at my 32 bullish level
- If you look at the chart I posted above and hit play, price bounced off the previous resistance level and flipped it as support.
- Double bottom on the 4H OBV
Bearish reasons not to take a position:
- I have a red heikin ashi weekly candle with a demark 2 count
- It's just the beginning of the move and support hasn't been confirmed so price can still reverse and take out support
As you can see, the evidence is stacked more on the bullish side now, so I'm very open to switching my bias here.
What I'd like to see to take a position:
- A retest of $29,500 area that holds, will get me to enter a position.
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Another possibility is to get one more retest of 28.6k, but it could wick down to 28.4k since that level hasn't been tested yet. If both of those levels hold, it's a buy.I'm bidding there 1/2 positions on each level.
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Going to throw out one more possibility as I look at the chart again, we can lose $28.3-4k and bounce at 26.5k which lines up with bouncing at the 200DMA.I actually might bid there instead of 28.3k and see if we get it
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After relooking at things again:- Lost the green flat bottom candle on 1D
- Cancelled the demark buy 9 and got continuation
Still think my original idea may be correct. We should know more by Tuesday/ Wednesday next week (as that's when I'm anticipating a bottom). Could be wrong on timing but that's what I'm thinking now.
Going to stick with the original idea and bid between 22.7k and 23.3k just to see if it gets hit.
Just note we can also bounce higher at any of the supports I shared above.
I'd rather bid lower and have to buy higher if it doesn't play out then lose 10%-20% bidding too high and having price go right through my bids.
This will be the final update until next week when we have a better view at what's going on.
I have a weekly pivot next week as well which increases the odds of a bottom happening next week.
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Flipping my bias bullish here. Took a position in BTC.Think this idea might play out:
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People may be looking for further reasoning on why I'm flipping bias here.We've largely moved sideways, haven't been able to produce a big drop. Which leads me to believe the market is stronger than most people think.
We have a demark 8 candle on the daily, a 9 should produce a bounce.
We're above support still and bounced off the level that I had set as support on my chart above. We also moved up after the pivot on my chart above.
All these things are leading me to believe that we should see a move higher.
And when we get the move, I think it'll be strong and fast, so I'd rather have a position here with a stop under the recent lows.
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This idea seems to be playing out as long as price holds here: "In terms of where to buy, there's a support at 29.5k, the one at 28.6k and 28.3k. If this is the start of the impulse, oftentimes, you get 3 tests of support before the leg up begins (to make people think that support is breaking before a move higher).
I'm going to bid half of my position at 28.6k and the other half at 28.3k to see if those two get filled. If you wanted to take a more aggressive entry, you could bid $29.3-29.5k. The bottom support on the chart hasn't gotten tested yet as support, so it would make sense that we'd get the final 3rd wick and test of that support before the move up (my logic for bidding lower).
Let's see how it plays out. A loss of that lower 28.3k level is bearish. Any price action above that is now bullish."
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Welp, price didn't hold support, the next level down is $26.7-$26.5. Unless price can get back above $28.3, then those supports are the next likely levels to get hit.Comentarios
I ended up getting filled at 26.5k but price action still looked weak after the bounce, so I exited at $26530 because I think the original idea could be correct and don't want to ride another move down if it were to drop by another 3k.The stock market looked weak at close so I think it's likely to see one more low tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the move lower in stocks takes bitcoin for one more low before bouncing.
Definitely didn't trade this move perfectly. I entered too early at 29.3k, got out one the loss of 28.3k.
Then entered again at 26.5k and got out nearly break even an hour or so ago.
Now seeing if we hit the final low as outlined in the original chart.
I would imagine the low should take place tomorrow. RSIs are extremely oversold so I do think we'll need to bounce soon.
Let's see if the final low gets hit. I've set a limit order for my full position down there at ~23.3k
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So far, so good. Glad I got out. If it breaks the low from yesterday, should head down fairly quickly.Also, this could potentially take until next week to play out... let's see.
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If last weeks low breaks, the target should be met fairly quickly. I expect this final move to play out over the next two days.I have two bids. One at the 23.3k level and another at 22.8k. Crossing my fingers both get hit.
Good luck to everyone trading this week.
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Okay, new timing, move should play out next week. Thinking Tuesday or Wednesday low. No change to targets.Comentarios
Still not taking longs. Being patient. Clearly didn't get the low today... I don't want to long anything until after the 30th-31st. Next pivots. Let's see how price action shapes up the rest of the week.
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Okay, based on price action today, I flipped long here both in BTC and Alts. Let's see how the next month or so plays out.Comentarios
I went back to cash last night at 25.7k...the market looked heavy, then we got the break of 25.6k this morning. Took some losses on both BTC and alts. Rather would sit in cash and wait for the market to settle. Trying to avoid 10%+ losses. This range has been extremely difficult to trade and I'm taking small losses here and there from entering early with the hopes of making it up in a big move higher once we bottom.With the market structure the way it is, it increases the probability of this idea playing out. Should have a resolution of this range this week. Let's see...
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Welp, that was fast, strong move off of the bottom... might reenter if we can retest $25.7 as support.Comentarios
I still favor one more move down though. Trend should become clearer over the next few days. Depending on if this move gets faded or if it can form a higher low.Comentarios
I could see price retesting $25.2-25.3k and alts seeing one more leg down. If that level holds, it would be a great area to long.Comentarios
If it doesn't, then next area of interest is 24.7k and then 24.3kComentarios
Price has tested 25.7k and held as support. I could see a big move higher from here if that level continues to holdComentarios
My only position right now is NASDAQ:PYR which I entered at $3.24. Ideally I'd like to see price test 25.7k one more time, if it holds, then we should see the move higher.
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