BTC - Retrace to a Historical Demand Range
Bitcoin is returning home, as it drops to a historical demand range between 20.6k and 21.3k. This is a great litmus test for bulls, to see if the demand is still there.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻?
Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe uptrend was exhausted, and this is part of the momentum reset that we called for over the past month. The drop was inevitable but macro events add a little fuel to the fire.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁?
The most likely scenario is continued crab 20k-
25K, with bearish bias until FOMC, meaning consolidation through the lower 20s. If we see more positive economic news (ie. inflation retreating, more layoffs, etc.) then we may recover to the mid 20s.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹-
The most important level here is the diagonal white support, extending from November 2021. That former resistance is what sent markets down 2021 thru 2022.
If we close a weekly under it (currently ~20k), this rally is over and we likely resume crabbing through upper teens again.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻?
Inconsistent economic data is spooking investors, and other news events (some might say FUD) like Silvergate or Mt. Gox, are amplifying those fears. Also the higher timeframe uptrend was exhausted, and this is part of the momentum reset that we called for over the past month. The drop was inevitable but macro events add a little fuel to the fire.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁?
The most likely scenario is continued crab 20k-
25K, with bearish bias until FOMC, meaning consolidation through the lower 20s. If we see more positive economic news (ie. inflation retreating, more layoffs, etc.) then we may recover to the mid 20s.𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹-
The most important level here is the diagonal white support, extending from November 2021. That former resistance is what sent markets down 2021 thru 2022.
If we close a weekly under it (currently ~20k), this rally is over and we likely resume crabbing through upper teens again.
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