Bitcoin what's next? Honest analysis.
Hello everyone,
I believe bitcoin is in a very awkward stage right now. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Here's my honest take on bitcoin right now.
For the short term, I think bitcoin will drop. Where? I think a perfect bounce would happen around the .382 Fib level. This aligns with our "possible" upward support line, daily 100 moving average, and the bottom line of our KC indicator. We can see this drop would also be validated by the 4 hour double top and price action occurring. Not to mention there is a very obvious dead cat bounce validated by bearish price action on the daily.
But where will we head after that? To be honest, we need to let the charts play out. I could see Bitcoin bounce and make a similar dump and run pattern it did back in late Feb/ early March. But, I could also see bitcoin going lower into the "bearish territory" and possibly test lower lows. Bitcoin has yet to test the 20 and 50 weekly MAs. As stated in previous posts, these Moving averages were tested several times throughout the entire 2017 bull market. We need more confirmation before assuming anything.
Here's the technicals:
1. Price action is bearish on the move from $47,000 to $59,000. This pattern is called a dead cat bounce.
2. MACD buying momentum has weakened and Bitcoin has failed to cross over the middle point. This is validated perfectly by volume.
3. Weekly 20/50 Moving Averages have not been tested. These were tested several times in the 2017 bull market.
4. There was a bullish fakeout above the Upper Resistance line to $59,000. Generally, a fakeout leads to lower prices or a retest of the lower support line.
5. There is a double top on the 4 hour chart that was confirmed with price action. Generally, confirmed patterns tend to be followed by the trend they reflect. A double top is bearish so I am expecting lower prices.
6. Bitcoin has rejected the 50 moving average once again. And there is also a "death cross" of the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. Typically this leads to lower prices or consolidation.
7. The drop from $64,000 to $47,000 is bullish price action with volume going down as price is going down.
With all of this said, Bitcoin could just go sideways while alts have their time to shine. Personally, I have been trading alts as they have somewhat ignored Bitcoin's price action. Not to mention, until bitcoin breaks $59,000 to $60,000, it is just testing previous support levels and is not as bullish as many think. As a trader, we need to see both sides and be flexible in how we think. I hope this analysis helps some of you find an entry point, profit-sell/stop loss, etc.
As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
I believe bitcoin is in a very awkward stage right now. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Here's my honest take on bitcoin right now.
For the short term, I think bitcoin will drop. Where? I think a perfect bounce would happen around the .382 Fib level. This aligns with our "possible" upward support line, daily 100 moving average, and the bottom line of our KC indicator. We can see this drop would also be validated by the 4 hour double top and price action occurring. Not to mention there is a very obvious dead cat bounce validated by bearish price action on the daily.
But where will we head after that? To be honest, we need to let the charts play out. I could see Bitcoin bounce and make a similar dump and run pattern it did back in late Feb/ early March. But, I could also see bitcoin going lower into the "bearish territory" and possibly test lower lows. Bitcoin has yet to test the 20 and 50 weekly MAs. As stated in previous posts, these Moving averages were tested several times throughout the entire 2017 bull market. We need more confirmation before assuming anything.
Here's the technicals:
1. Price action is bearish on the move from $47,000 to $59,000. This pattern is called a dead cat bounce.
2. MACD buying momentum has weakened and Bitcoin has failed to cross over the middle point. This is validated perfectly by volume.
3. Weekly 20/50 Moving Averages have not been tested. These were tested several times in the 2017 bull market.
4. There was a bullish fakeout above the Upper Resistance line to $59,000. Generally, a fakeout leads to lower prices or a retest of the lower support line.
5. There is a double top on the 4 hour chart that was confirmed with price action. Generally, confirmed patterns tend to be followed by the trend they reflect. A double top is bearish so I am expecting lower prices.
6. Bitcoin has rejected the 50 moving average once again. And there is also a "death cross" of the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. Typically this leads to lower prices or consolidation.
7. The drop from $64,000 to $47,000 is bullish price action with volume going down as price is going down.
With all of this said, Bitcoin could just go sideways while alts have their time to shine. Personally, I have been trading alts as they have somewhat ignored Bitcoin's price action. Not to mention, until bitcoin breaks $59,000 to $60,000, it is just testing previous support levels and is not as bullish as many think. As a trader, we need to see both sides and be flexible in how we think. I hope this analysis helps some of you find an entry point, profit-sell/stop loss, etc.
As always, be patient, use risk management, and good luck trading!
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