BTC - Where We Going - Well UP But….
We’ve all seen this log chart for the history of BTC. I kinda like reviewing it for any hidden gems of info and I’ve noticed something which may be of interest so I thought I’d humbly throw my hat into the “is this cycle’s rise/parabolic over or” ring. Please understand there are tons of factors that affect the market which could cause whatever may happen. I only offer a fat boars view of the past to see the future.
Looking at the 2013 and 2017 cycles and their “parabolic” rises, I’ve noticed that both cycles had a large drop “JUST BEFORE” continuing, without interruption (another drop), upwards thence into the cycles “parabolic” move to peak. I’ve circled the pre parabolic areas which I’ll expand on. In 2013 it dropped 52% and in 2017, a 41% drop just before their respective rise to peak.
Let’s start with the 2013 cycle. If you expand that portion of the chart you will see that from the end of May to July 2013, so about 5 weeks, it did an approximate 52% falling knife drop and then didn’t look back as it completed an approximate 517% parabolic move to peak. In addition, in 2013 after the peak, it took just over a year of falling PA till it hit it’s low for that crypto winter at a price it passed through early in the parabolic move.
Now looking at the 2017 cycle we see an approximate 41% falling knife drop for 3 weeks in September 2017, followed by approximate 315% move to the peak. Following the 2017/18 peak it only took 11 months of a descending PA for it to reach that cycles winters low. Also, in 2018, the low after the peak was well below the “pre” parabolic price levels.
And so, here we are today. We have not had the drop followed by a continuous rise to parabolic peak. I say this because, well I got into crypto in Nov/17 and I have not seen anything I would call parabolic this year. So, we haven’t completed the set-up for this cycles parabolic move. March was not it.
Looking at todays 1m RSI we actually have 3 independent divergences showing a continued downtrend or levelling of PA. In a month view a sideways movement BTC could oscillate high/low several thousand dollars and still be in a sideways movement. The 1w RSI also shows a continued downtrend or sideways PA movement. Both timeframes have descending sRSI indicators and negative EFI. There is also the absence of a clearly defined bottom “V” in the RSI which is clearly indicated in 2013 and 2017. Both have wicked pronounced “V” showing their RSI “bottoms”.
I believe BTC PA will move along sideways possibly rising to 50-55k for the next month or three, then do the drop. The cycles are getting less extreme with the drop in 13 of 52% and 17 of 41% so I figure a drop of approximately 35-40% for this cycle. From the 50-55k range this results in hitting 29k (my calculated bottom). Thence continue, relatively without further drops, to the peak range of 185-225k, my estimate using the log chart/lines and imagining the continuation to peak. Yes I’ll even say peak in Nov/22 (Nov14 to be exact snort snort)
Moral of my story is be ready. Have your SL’s in place and be ready to get back in at the bottom of the drop when everyone is crying “it’s all over”. Ride the wave to peak. When your friends who never heard of BTC are telling you they just got into a great thing called BTC, get prepared to cash out. Wait for crypto winter 2023/24 and get back in.
My thoughts, not advice Oklah. Cheers
Looking at the 2013 and 2017 cycles and their “parabolic” rises, I’ve noticed that both cycles had a large drop “JUST BEFORE” continuing, without interruption (another drop), upwards thence into the cycles “parabolic” move to peak. I’ve circled the pre parabolic areas which I’ll expand on. In 2013 it dropped 52% and in 2017, a 41% drop just before their respective rise to peak.
Let’s start with the 2013 cycle. If you expand that portion of the chart you will see that from the end of May to July 2013, so about 5 weeks, it did an approximate 52% falling knife drop and then didn’t look back as it completed an approximate 517% parabolic move to peak. In addition, in 2013 after the peak, it took just over a year of falling PA till it hit it’s low for that crypto winter at a price it passed through early in the parabolic move.
Now looking at the 2017 cycle we see an approximate 41% falling knife drop for 3 weeks in September 2017, followed by approximate 315% move to the peak. Following the 2017/18 peak it only took 11 months of a descending PA for it to reach that cycles winters low. Also, in 2018, the low after the peak was well below the “pre” parabolic price levels.
And so, here we are today. We have not had the drop followed by a continuous rise to parabolic peak. I say this because, well I got into crypto in Nov/17 and I have not seen anything I would call parabolic this year. So, we haven’t completed the set-up for this cycles parabolic move. March was not it.
Looking at todays 1m RSI we actually have 3 independent divergences showing a continued downtrend or levelling of PA. In a month view a sideways movement BTC could oscillate high/low several thousand dollars and still be in a sideways movement. The 1w RSI also shows a continued downtrend or sideways PA movement. Both timeframes have descending sRSI indicators and negative EFI. There is also the absence of a clearly defined bottom “V” in the RSI which is clearly indicated in 2013 and 2017. Both have wicked pronounced “V” showing their RSI “bottoms”.
I believe BTC PA will move along sideways possibly rising to 50-55k for the next month or three, then do the drop. The cycles are getting less extreme with the drop in 13 of 52% and 17 of 41% so I figure a drop of approximately 35-40% for this cycle. From the 50-55k range this results in hitting 29k (my calculated bottom). Thence continue, relatively without further drops, to the peak range of 185-225k, my estimate using the log chart/lines and imagining the continuation to peak. Yes I’ll even say peak in Nov/22 (Nov14 to be exact snort snort)
Moral of my story is be ready. Have your SL’s in place and be ready to get back in at the bottom of the drop when everyone is crying “it’s all over”. Ride the wave to peak. When your friends who never heard of BTC are telling you they just got into a great thing called BTC, get prepared to cash out. Wait for crypto winter 2023/24 and get back in.
My thoughts, not advice Oklah. Cheers
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