April week 3 / Journal
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consolidating above supply block, what comes next ?
funding extreme high but the spot catching up futs.
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notespring and terminal shakeout are two simirar events which occur during the development of an accumulation range. But there is another variant ; the Ordinary shakout, which is defined as a strong bearish push without extensive prior preparation that occurs during the development of an uptrend (reaccumulation). The ordinary shakeout is characterized by wide price ranges and an increas in volume. However, the volume can be high ,medium or low.
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notethere is no evidence of supply nor demand on spot market.
also open interest is keep stacking on derivatives,
crazy high funding without too much sell pressure on spot market.
why derivatives driving market,
according to onchain data there is no supply in the market atm.
so whoever it is (mr.marker maker, the compositie man), driving market thru derivatives until they meed enough demand on spot market that they can dump on their bags. we don't know where, and its not about shake out more to reversal sometime this year. market is on edge again.
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+@it would hard to tracking supply if market driven by derivatives.
because that dump (whenever it comes) will be more likely
"bit of spot sells" + "lots of unwinding in derivatives"
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but i would see btc hits ath again , personally expecting 72-88k somewhere between. signs of reversal or pullback will be on derivatives, look closer on oi, cvd + delta.Nota
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volume expanded on resistance = proof of supplycoinbase listing tmr
liquidity void around 58k
possible low swept, clear all the high leverage longs
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high taken, price discovery onNota
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noteshort close rally ( buy back )
oi , cvd divergence on the way.
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be cautious on UTADNota
not sayin this will happen,
but consider this if we facing mark up.
im holding spots hedged with margin short.
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80k is not far from here.So question is we get other dip?
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we go higher soon this week.
i expect it would be last leg up in phase 1.
eth/btc break up , last leg up with major bull market doesn't sounds too bad.
try reduce your exposure, a very last shake out and last leg up.
after leg up, we might face few months retrace
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