What will move Bitcoin?

22 ago

Let's take an honest look at Bitcoin in terms of price and fundamentals.

Every day I see a new article about "ETF inflows" or "Historical parabolic coming" but yet price stubbornly refuses to break bullish. Often I read the comments on these articles and users ask pertinent questions such as, "if everything in the media is so bullish then why is price stagnant?"

The reality is that the failure to break back in April/May on to the fabled 100k killed the bull trend. Very simple Technical Analysis reveals lower highs and lower lows, and the trend seems to be returning back to the ETF launch level of 40k's.

But there is an upcoming event many are speculating: a Fed Rate Cut.

While people may debate the magnitude of effect that low rates had on Bitcoin in 2020-2021 there is no doubt they were bullish for Bitcoin. So it is a proper assumption that a rate cut should have a bullish effect on Bitcoin (IF it happens). The speculation is that there will be a rate cut next month, September.

This sets up a clear Boolean indicator for Bitcoin. The key is to watch Bitcoin upon a rate cut. If Bitcoin responds BULLISH then that is the correct thing for price action to "make sense." However, if Bitcoin does not respond or even goes down... that means what should have happened did NOT and Bitcoin is definitely in a secular bearish trend.